MacKenzieiii
New member
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I also am looking to buy on the dip of the I fund that seems to happening today.
I also am looking to buy on the dip of the I fund that seems to happening today.
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Neirbod Account Talk
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Rod
Well-known member
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Please be careful though. Just because the EAFE is down, doesn't always mean the (I) will be down. I'm learning to look at the bigger picture of how the European/Asian markets performed.
So far, today seems to be mixed. So IMHO, the (I) can go either way.
I wish you the best & God Bless:^
Please be careful though. Just because the EAFE is down, doesn't always mean the (I) will be down. I'm learning to look at the bigger picture of how the European/Asian markets performed.
So far, today seems to be mixed. So IMHO, the (I) can go either way.
I wish you the best & God Bless:^
vectorman
Active member
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Rod wrote:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
Rod wrote:
Down or up the I fund for the last three years continues its upward climb. Very consistent for those who have gone long. $$$$$$$$$
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
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I am starting to think I should just go long on the I fund. I've been actively managing my TSP account for around 8 months now. I played a few short term moves well, but screw up nearly as much. I always test my return against what I would use as a long-term buy and hold just to see how my efforts at playing the wiggles works. So far, I would have been slightly better off in 2004 and 2005 had I just bought and held. Live and learn.
I am starting to think I should just go long on the I fund. I've been actively managing my TSP account for around 8 months now. I played a few short term moves well, but screw up nearly as much. I always test my return against what I would use as a long-term buy and hold just to see how my efforts at playing the wiggles works. So far, I would have been slightly better off in 2004 and 2005 had I just bought and held. Live and learn.
vectorman
Active member
imported post
neirbod wrote:
neirbod wrote:
neirbod I learned that lesson the hard way last year. I thought I would try to be smart by getting out on the dips, and moving back and forth between funds. While thismethod seems good on the surface and some can handle it.It's time consuming ( keeping up with whats going on in the US and world markets), frustrating ( especially whenyou miss out on a rally), andto some all consuming. It's easy to develope a divided mind. You watch the markets constantly; you wonder how you can make a new move in your funds to make up for a missed rally;you kick yourself for not pulling or pulling the tigger on a move that either lost or could have made you alot of money. And nothing is more important than making that dreaded TSP twelve o'clock dead line, where you hopeyou can get in and the new transfer will go through. Sounds like a gambler, huh. If one is not careful, that's the lifestyle that one can easily get sucked into. The trend is your friend. The I fund has been trending up for three years, even with the ups and downs. I learned from watching Rolo, that much can be gained with making very few moves and having alot more patience.Even with the corrections in the C, S, and I funds for the last 2 1/2 years, I would have done better for myself, with less frustration, with fewer moves and more patience. Sorry for the book on your acct talk, but I can relate to what you said above. In the end, with the knowledge from the site from others, I learned to manage my TSP account more wisely and I promised myself that I would never again let my fundstake a major hit like I didfrom 2000 to 2003. I'm now not a long term buy and holder, but a long term trend watcher. Good luck.
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Vectorman,
Thanks for the thoughtful advice. It is appreciated. I still have at least 20 years before retirement,and I am using this time to learn all I can and to try out different approaches to managing my TSP account. Given what I have witnessed in my own account these past months, I am beginning to think along your lines. Iwill ignore the day to day fluctuations and focus on longer term trends for a while and see where that takes me.
Dave
Vectorman,
Thanks for the thoughtful advice. It is appreciated. I still have at least 20 years before retirement,and I am using this time to learn all I can and to try out different approaches to managing my TSP account. Given what I have witnessed in my own account these past months, I am beginning to think along your lines. Iwill ignore the day to day fluctuations and focus on longer term trends for a while and see where that takes me.
Dave
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
imported post
Amen Vectorman, i've been thinking along the same lines,but would just HATE to be caught in a Big drop because I wasn't paying attention. In early 2003 I was frustrated and left lots of dough in the "G" fund, wasn't even checking! Missed the biggest part of the yearend rally (Big One), now i'm GUNSHY as all Hell :'
Amen Vectorman, i've been thinking along the same lines,but would just HATE to be caught in a Big drop because I wasn't paying attention. In early 2003 I was frustrated and left lots of dough in the "G" fund, wasn't even checking! Missed the biggest part of the yearend rally (Big One), now i'm GUNSHY as all Hell :'
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Ditto nnuut, Excellentadvice Vectorman; I too got burned from the theory of "put it in the c fund and let it ride, you've got 20yrs, the ups and downs will work out to your favor"...assuming the market keeps on going as it had prior to the 2000-2003 periods. Of course, part of that theory was broughtabout by the difficulty of making an interfund transfer.
Now, within 2 yrs of having the 20, I'm prone to be more involved; especially, to try and make up for some major lapses in 2001/2002...not sure it'll will work out any better, BUT Vectorman has hit on a good signal/truth - be invovled, and yes it does pay, to be "a trend watcher" versus the old axim of put it in and let it ride.
For what it's worth, I would also add for anyonebeginning their career with the gov/thrift, that at a minimum, as soon as possible, you be fully contributing to meet your agency's matching, after that thereare many opinions as to how much to contribute in thrift versus private investing. I have a buddy who recently wanted some advice about retiring early and after looking at his pension plans it's a good thing he has prior military time because for his 20 yrs in his current fed job he only has been putting in 3%, ouch! soc. sec. might outdohis thrift.
Good hunting Neirbod, you're apparantly well informed and involved, and you 've got some sound advice from others all over this site.
Ditto nnuut, Excellentadvice Vectorman; I too got burned from the theory of "put it in the c fund and let it ride, you've got 20yrs, the ups and downs will work out to your favor"...assuming the market keeps on going as it had prior to the 2000-2003 periods. Of course, part of that theory was broughtabout by the difficulty of making an interfund transfer.
Now, within 2 yrs of having the 20, I'm prone to be more involved; especially, to try and make up for some major lapses in 2001/2002...not sure it'll will work out any better, BUT Vectorman has hit on a good signal/truth - be invovled, and yes it does pay, to be "a trend watcher" versus the old axim of put it in and let it ride.
For what it's worth, I would also add for anyonebeginning their career with the gov/thrift, that at a minimum, as soon as possible, you be fully contributing to meet your agency's matching, after that thereare many opinions as to how much to contribute in thrift versus private investing. I have a buddy who recently wanted some advice about retiring early and after looking at his pension plans it's a good thing he has prior military time because for his 20 yrs in his current fed job he only has been putting in 3%, ouch! soc. sec. might outdohis thrift.
Good hunting Neirbod, you're apparantly well informed and involved, and you 've got some sound advice from others all over this site.
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Making a move. The I fund dipped below the 10-day MA yesterday, and so far there is no bounce from yesterday's fall. The S and C funds were just below the 10-day MA, and look like they may cross over it today. In addition, the dollar is rallying. I don't expect it to rally for long, but for now it is going up.
So I am moving some funds from I to S and C. I am also taking a more defensive posture and moving some funds to G.
I expect to get back to 100 I shortly, as I still think this is the best default allocation for the forseable future.
Today: 100 I
Tomorrow: 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I
Making a move. The I fund dipped below the 10-day MA yesterday, and so far there is no bounce from yesterday's fall. The S and C funds were just below the 10-day MA, and look like they may cross over it today. In addition, the dollar is rallying. I don't expect it to rally for long, but for now it is going up.
So I am moving some funds from I to S and C. I am also taking a more defensive posture and moving some funds to G.
I expect to get back to 100 I shortly, as I still think this is the best default allocation for the forseable future.
Today: 100 I
Tomorrow: 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I
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Putting some funds into G for today worked out. I may even get the penny:^ Putting some funds into C and S did not work out so well
That'll teach me to go back on my medium term plan of using only I or G funds.
I am going 100 I again effective COB today. Two reasons: looks like the dollar's rally was very short lived, and I see it going down some more in coming days and weeks. Second, yesterday there was a big difference between the I fund and the EAFE. EAFE showed a loss of 0.62%, while the I fund gained 0.31%. That's nearly a 1% swing, and is not common. I have gone through the data as far back as I can, and see that such a big discrepancy is usually followed by a comepensatory discrepancy. That is, I expect the I fund to gain significantly less than the EAFE today, offering a good opportunity to buy back in. That being said, my charts show that 1) this is not true all the time, and 2) even when it happens, sometimes it takes 2 days. Still, I am taking the chance.
Today 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I
Tomorrow 100 I
Putting some funds into G for today worked out. I may even get the penny:^ Putting some funds into C and S did not work out so well
That'll teach me to go back on my medium term plan of using only I or G funds.I am going 100 I again effective COB today. Two reasons: looks like the dollar's rally was very short lived, and I see it going down some more in coming days and weeks. Second, yesterday there was a big difference between the I fund and the EAFE. EAFE showed a loss of 0.62%, while the I fund gained 0.31%. That's nearly a 1% swing, and is not common. I have gone through the data as far back as I can, and see that such a big discrepancy is usually followed by a comepensatory discrepancy. That is, I expect the I fund to gain significantly less than the EAFE today, offering a good opportunity to buy back in. That being said, my charts show that 1) this is not true all the time, and 2) even when it happens, sometimes it takes 2 days. Still, I am taking the chance.
Today 40 G, 20 C, 20 S, 20 I
Tomorrow 100 I
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Neirbod,
Finally someone other than mfm6376 who snorts instead of clucks. Nice to meet you.
Yes I think we are putting in a base today for a run up out of our current trading range to penetrate Dow 10940 and sp500 of 1260. I think most of our participants are watching to see if I get hit by a bus when trying to cross the street. Never going to happen as long as I look both ways. Head fakes are always interesting - sharp but relatively painless.
Neirbod,
Finally someone other than mfm6376 who snorts instead of clucks. Nice to meet you.
Yes I think we are putting in a base today for a run up out of our current trading range to penetrate Dow 10940 and sp500 of 1260. I think most of our participants are watching to see if I get hit by a bus when trying to cross the street. Never going to happen as long as I look both ways. Head fakes are always interesting - sharp but relatively painless.
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Hi Birchtree,
I agree with you that, barring a major event, the upward trend should continue for a while. There are certainly warning flags, but earnings are good and I do think the economy is steadily improving. If today's decline continues, I expect we will see a good bounce tomorrow.That being said, Iwould not be surprised by a short-term pullback. I may jump out again tomorrow if we get the bounce, or I may just wait it out and ride any downturn given I don't think it will be severe. still debating that one.
Dave
Hi Birchtree,
I agree with you that, barring a major event, the upward trend should continue for a while. There are certainly warning flags, but earnings are good and I do think the economy is steadily improving. If today's decline continues, I expect we will see a good bounce tomorrow.That being said, Iwould not be surprised by a short-term pullback. I may jump out again tomorrow if we get the bounce, or I may just wait it out and ride any downturn given I don't think it will be severe. still debating that one.
Dave
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With September typically a bad month for stocks, together with the gas hikes and other effects from Katrina, I am locking in some gains. I had 40% in I, which really helped the past few days. I went 100 G before the deadline. I'll probably stay here for a while until the smoke clears on the long-term effects from the hurricane and flood.
With September typically a bad month for stocks, together with the gas hikes and other effects from Katrina, I am locking in some gains. I had 40% in I, which really helped the past few days. I went 100 G before the deadline. I'll probably stay here for a while until the smoke clears on the long-term effects from the hurricane and flood.
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Moved to 50 C and 50 I before the deadline. A risky move before the hurricane, but I am hoping that the market has factored in the worst of the potential damage, or will have done so by the end of the day. Seems like the indicators are pointing toward an oversold position, so if the hurricane is not worse than expected we could get a decent rally soon. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Also, the dollar jumped today vs. the euro. I think this is short lived and want to be in the I fund if the dollar drops back.
I'll probably stick with this allocation, or at least 100% stocks, for at least a few weeks.
Moved to 50 C and 50 I before the deadline. A risky move before the hurricane, but I am hoping that the market has factored in the worst of the potential damage, or will have done so by the end of the day. Seems like the indicators are pointing toward an oversold position, so if the hurricane is not worse than expected we could get a decent rally soon. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Also, the dollar jumped today vs. the euro. I think this is short lived and want to be in the I fund if the dollar drops back.
I'll probably stick with this allocation, or at least 100% stocks, for at least a few weeks.
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The C fund looks to be petering out. With continued oil worries and upcoming post-hurricane financial reports, I am joining with those who anticipate a downturn. So, moving my C fund to G fund today.
I considered bailing out of stocks entirely, but decided to stay with my 50 % I. With the dollar at a recent high, I expect it will turn down and help to defray any downturn in foreign stocks.
Went 50 G, 50 I before the deadline
The C fund looks to be petering out. With continued oil worries and upcoming post-hurricane financial reports, I am joining with those who anticipate a downturn. So, moving my C fund to G fund today.
I considered bailing out of stocks entirely, but decided to stay with my 50 % I. With the dollar at a recent high, I expect it will turn down and help to defray any downturn in foreign stocks.
Went 50 G, 50 I before the deadline
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