nasa1974's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Right now we have a short rally monkey. :blink: I'll take a short ride on the train.



May the force be with us.

 

[nasa1974]

WOW! I made about $50 yesterday. Big money on the way. Jumped up about four on the tracker. Look out Nsurf9.........:nuts:



May the force be with us.

 

[FogSailing]

Tom's analysis has me wondering if it's time to bail, but if I do, I won't have any IFT's left for August and I still (feel, oops) like we have some upside. Biggest issues on my radar (Russia, hurricanes, Iran/Israel, economic data, the other shoe drops). But that wedge looks ugly and if C and S push up today, that could be it for a litle bit. On the other hand, everyone is bearish which often means we have a great following week. Last year August was big and this year, it's doing well. CP said that if S was up bigtime, he was moving to G. What to do, what to do...

FS

 

[Steadygain]

Tom's analysis has me wondering...CP said that if S was up bigtime, he was moving to G. What to do, what to do...

FS

Well apparently I was way off when tabulating what I thought yesteray's gains were compared to the others.

When you compare .41% to -2.29%; -.26%; -.16% it looks way better.

I say this only because CP's returns compared to the other FUNDS are all the more outstanding. Pretty hard to ignore his lead if you're into short term trading.

 

[FogSailing]

While S still has some room to the upside to reach the 50 DMA, the C Fund has pierced to 50 DMA. The question is whether there is enough strength to continue the move up and establish a new channel. With banks/financials hurting, it will be up to the other sectors. Tech is doing well, and oil seems to be headed back up and TRANS is mixed..Given the inflation data, I would expect the FED to raise rates at some point..Think I'll just chicken out and head back to the Lily Pad..

FS

 

[nasa1974]

With the market the way it is I have learned that it is better for me to keep my toes in the water (10-15%) than jumping back onto the lilly pad (this enlightenment has happened just recently). Until the market starts a strong drive up I have become content to earn 30 to 100 dollars a day. And it does not hurt if I lose 50 to 100 dollars a day over a couple of days. A lot less pain at a couple of hundred compared to a $3000.00 loss (in one day) I had a late last year. It is always easier to pull back small amounts with 2 IFT's than decide should I wait it out and get hammered.


May the force be with us.

 

[FogSailing]

Nasa, read your post too late..No more moves for me until Sept..Good ole Lily Pad...:nuts::nuts::nuts:

FS

 

[nasa1974]

Ops X week has proved to be interesting. Will next week bring in the bulls or will the bears capture the camp and feast on our remains. The last two weeks of August will be very interesting. Lets hope resistance is futile. There is actually someone out there predicting that oil will fall below $100 and settle out somewhere between 30 to 50 dollars a barrel. :blink: Here is the link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=yahoo



May the force be with us.

 

[JTH]

Ops X week has proved to be interesting. Will next week bring in the bulls or will the bears capture the camp and feast on our remains. The last two weeks of August will be very interesting. Lets hope resistance is futile. There is actually someone out there predicting that oil will fall below $100 and settle out somewhere between 30 to 50 dollars a barrel. :blink: Here is the link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=yahoo



May the force be with us.

As much as I'd like to bellieve the link, I just can't. It will take years for us to get new technologies online. While that's happening, poorer undeveloped countries will buy any excess oil to hit the markets. Could oil plumit so low?

 

[nasa1974]

Here is some information about BGI. It was on Govexec.com. http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=40761&dcn=todaysnews

"At a monthly meeting of the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, officials pointed to the results of a report released last week by Buchanan, Ingersoll and Rooney, which said TSP assets would not be damaged in the event of insolvency at Barclays Global Investors, manager of the plan's funds.
"TSP funds are held under a true trust arrangement," said Thomas Emswiler, general counsel for the TSP. "Even if BGI were to experience financial difficulty, TSP funds would be safe.""

So how concerned do we need to be? If you read farther into the article it is recommended that maybe we should all be in the "L funds". :suspicious:

It is also mentioned that they are going to renew the contract with BGI.

"Andrew Saul, chairman of the board, suggested that TSP officials talk to BGI about guaranteeing the make-up of rogue trading losses when the agency renews its contract. "This is a thing to indemnify us," he said."

HELLO!!! NO!! How can the contract be renewed with BGI with all the losses it has dropped on us???? How much is the FRTIB being paid????? With some of the other posts on this MB it sure looks like BGI is cutting our profits to make up for their losses.
Sure would be nice to get some answers from FRTIB. But we know that won't happen will it?


May the force be with us.

 

[Guest2]

Here is some information about BGI. It was on Govexec.com. http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=40761&dcn=todaysnews

"At a monthly meeting of the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, officials pointed to the results of a report released last week by Buchanan, Ingersoll and Rooney, which said TSP assets would not be damaged in the event of insolvency at Barclays Global Investors, manager of the plan's funds.
"TSP funds are held under a true trust arrangement," said Thomas Emswiler, general counsel for the TSP. "Even if BGI were to experience financial difficulty, TSP funds would be safe.""

So how concerned do we need to be? If you read farther into the article it is recommended that maybe we should all be in the "L funds". :suspicious:

It is also mentioned that they are going to renew the contract with BGI.

"Andrew Saul, chairman of the board, suggested that TSP officials talk to BGI about guaranteeing the make-up of rogue trading losses when the agency renews its contract. "This is a thing to indemnify us," he said."

HELLO!!! NO!! How can the contract be renewed with BGI with all the losses it has dropped on us???? How much is the FRTIB being paid????? With some of the other posts on this MB it sure looks like BGI is cutting our profits to make up for their losses. Sure would be nice to get some answers from FRTIB. But we know that won't happen will it?

May the force be with us.

Nasa, Thanks for the post. Your always so informative to read.
I have a question to ask of you; Why do you believe that the BGI
dropped loses on us ? I'm curious and might be missing something.
Within my thread, I recently posted some interesting information
which provides substancial proof that the TSP Funds have not lost
anywhere near the Indexes and ETF's which are to reflect their
returns. In fact, we have outperformed them. With that said, their
still the Biggest Group of Idiots around.

 

[luv2read]

Here is some information about BGI. It was on Govexec.com. http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=40761&dcn=todaysnews

It is also mentioned that they are going to renew the contract with BGI.

"Andrew Saul, chairman of the board, suggested that TSP officials talk to BGI about guaranteeing the make-up of rogue trading losses when the agency renews its contract. "This is a thing to indemnify us," he said."

HELLO!!! NO!! How can the contract be renewed with BGI with all the losses it has dropped on us???? How much is the FRTIB being paid????? With some of the other posts on this MB it sure looks like BGI is cutting our profits to make up for their losses.
Sure would be nice to get some answers from FRTIB. But we know that won't happen will it?


May the force be with us.

Unless they are exercising an option to renew or extend under an existing contract - and I don't remember the execution date of the existing contract or if it included such options - they can't just "renew" the contract. An RFP has to be issued for contract proposals, it has to go through the competitive bid and acceptance process. XL-ENT Lady can give more information on this if anyone is interested and she has time to explain. The RFP is available on the TSP site and you can get a copy of the existing contract (redacted) via FOIA.

 

[XL-entLady]

Within my thread, I recently posted some interesting information which provides substancial proof that the TSP Funds have not lost anywhere near the Indexes and ETF's which are to reflect their returns. In fact, we have outperformed them.

SB, my personal research indicates the same thing. I was talking with someone a lot smarter than I am about these things yesterday and asked him for his thoughts. He said, "So find out who they are getting divorced from." My reaction was, "What???" And he said, "They're hiding assets, which is what you do in a divorce, so who are they getting divorced from?"

For what it's worth,

Lady

 

[luv2read]

SB, my personal research indicates the same thing. I was talking with someone a lot smarter than I am about these things yesterday and asked him for his thoughts. He said, "So find out who they are getting divorced from." My reaction was, "What???" And he said, "They're hiding assets, which is what you do in a divorce, so who are they getting divorced from?"

For what it's worth,

Lady

Hmmm...well they got married to sovereign wealth funds in June...and I'm sure they want to hold on to their FRTIB contract because of the guaranteed bi-weekly influx (which I'm sure influenced the sovereign funds to invest) so who else could be the divorcee? Maybe one or more of the sovereign funds are cutting their losses and dumping Barclays already?

Financial Week
Barclays plucks nearly $9 billion from Qatar, others
Bank raises much-needed cash but avoids rights issue; proceeds will help boost capital cushion
June 25, 2008

(Reuters)—British bank Barclays raised 4.5 billion pounds ($8.9 billion) from investors including Qatar and Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui and aims to use half the cash to rebuild capital and half to pursue growth.

Qatar’s state investment firm and a member of its ruling family could become two of the biggest shareholders in Britain’s third-biggest bank, with a combined stake of up to 10%, or over $4 billion.

But under the structure of the deal announced on Wednesday, existing shareholders will get the chance to buy up to 4 billion pounds of shares at a discount. What they don’t buy, Qatar and the other “anchor” investors will take.

Barclays shares jumped more than 7%, boosting other bank stocks across Europe, as investors welcomed the completion of the well-flagged capital raising exercise. Barclays stock recently hit a 10-year low.

Barclays has lost more than $5 billion on assets hurt by the U.S. subprime crisis and credit crunch, and said last week it planned to raise billions of pounds to rebuild its capital base.

“About half the capital will be directed at higher (capital) ratios and about half will be directed at new business opportunities,” said Barclays chief executive John Varley.

The bank has one of the thinnest capital cushions among European banks. The fundraising would have increased its core tier 1 capital ratio to 6.3% at the end of last year, from the 5.1% it reported.

That ratio will stay above its target of 5.25% for “the foreseeable future” but will come down from 6.3% as cash is used on winning business where many rivals have retreated, Varley told reporters on a conference call.

Barclays, reiterating that profits in May were over 590 million pounds, said it intends to keep paying dividends in cash and payouts would be in line with last year’s levels until the dividend is more than twice covered by earnings.

The bank’s fundraising will be through a placing and open offer of 1.4 billion new shares.

Another 500 million pounds will be raised through a placing to Japanese bank Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. of 169 million new shares.

Sumitimo will get a 2% stake and a co-operation agreement will give it access to Barclays Capital’s investment bank platform and its India and Pakistan footprint, while Barclays will be able to access a wider Japanese and Asian network for areas such as private banking.

Qatar investors are the biggest backers of the deal. Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani, a member of the royal family, have agreed to invest up to 1.8 billion pounds and 533 million pounds respectively.

QIA invested in Swiss bank Credit Suisse earlier this year and in February Sheikh Hamad said Qatar could spend as much as $15 billion on overseas banks in the next two years. The stake in Barclays was a step towards building up its portfolio in “quality financial institutions,” a person familiar with the investor said.

Two major existing shareholders, China Development Bank and Singapore state investor Temasek will invest 136 million pounds and up to 200 million pounds respectively. In addition, leading institutional shareholders and other investors will invest up to 1.3 billion pounds.

CDB and Temasek are investing at prices well below what they paid for Barclays shares last summer.

Mr. Varley said he wouldn’t rule out acquisitions, but is mainly focused on taking advantage of higher margins and problems the credit crunch has created among rivals.

Bob Diamond, head of investment bank Barclays Capital, said there was “a terrific opportunity” to grab market share on Wall Street as “six or seven” big U.S. banks have stepped back during the market turmoil.

Barclays has opened over 600 branches outside Britain this year and bought a bank in Russia and a UK credit card business, and Mr. Varley said it is taking “a substantially higher” share of UK mortgage lending.

Barclays’ credit crunch-related losses are far lower than many rivals, and analysts said there remains concern that they haven’t written off enough.

Mr. Diamond said the bank had better-quality assets, was managing risk better than rivals, and had avoided getting involved in many of the leveraged finance deals that had caused others to take big writedowns.

Mr. Varley said the bank considered a rights issue but the structure of its deal gave it “speed and certainty” that a rights issue couldn’t provide.

URL for this article:
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080625/REG/337934051

 

[nasa1974]

L2R, Your aticle from Financial Week again shows why the FRTIB limited us to 2 IFT's. and I said in my 6/26 post http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=169246&postcount=85
It wasn't because of the cost of moving the funds around (like they told us) it was to keep BGI from going under.
Wouldn't it be great if all TSP members would stop their bi-weekly influx for awhile. Do you think that would give us some leverage?

SB, No hard evidence but it just feels like BGI is cooking the books (with our money) to get back on stable ground. BGI and FRTIB are are working together. It may not be illigal but it sure is unethical.

XL-entLady, Thanks for your post.

 

[luv2read]

L2R, Your aticle from Financial Week again shows why the FRTIB limited us to 2 IFT's. and I said in my 6/26 post http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=169246&postcount=85
It wasn't because of the cost of moving the funds around (like they told us) it was to keep BGI from going under.
Wouldn't it be great if all TSP members would stop their bi-weekly influx for awhile. Do you think that would give us some leverage?

SB, No hard evidence but it just feels like BGI is cooking the books (with our money) to get back on stable ground. BGI and FRTIB are are working together. It may not be illigal but it sure is unethical.

XL-entLady, Thanks for your post.

Mr. Diamond said the bank had better-quality assets, was managing risk better than rivals

I'm sure TSP is part of that better-quality assets (guaranteed contributions every 2 weeks) and risk management (adjustment of TSP funds)

 

[Guest2]

I'm no where qualified to say what they are doing or not doing. But if they
are hiding monies within Funds, asking for more capital, writing down loans,
while having extra money socked away into various funds, something is
wrong ! Legal ? Maybe ! But wouldn't it be interesting if the FRTIB didn't
know of this and found out on this website. :worried: I want a commission ! :worried:

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm no where qualified to say what they are doing or not doing. But if they are hiding monies within Funds, asking for more capital, writing down loans, while having extra money socked away into various funds, something is wrong ! :worried:

So maybe the only 'divorce' is from rotten paper .... Hmmm. If I could figure out how to hide some of my assets so that I could shed some liabilities .... An unethical but easy way to make more equity. :suspicious:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

So maybe the only 'divorce' is from rotten paper .... Hmmm. If I could figure out how to hide some of my assets so that I could shed some liabilities .... An unethical but easy way to make more equity. :suspicious:

I got thinking about what I wrote in that last hurried post and figured I'd better clarify. That would not, of course, make more equity. What it would do is give them a better Risk Ratio - a better debt to equity ratio. Which is one of the biggies when stockholders or outside companies are looking over your shoulder. To determine things like "do you have adequate capital."

There, clear as mud, right? :laugh:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Unless they are exercising an option to renew or extend under an existing contract ... they can't just "renew" the contract. An RFP has to be issued for contract proposals, it has to go through the competitive bid and acceptance process. XL-ENT Lady can give more information on this if anyone is interested and she has time to explain.

Nasa, L2R is right on the money here as always. The government RFPs I work with are in a very specialized subgroup, but a "quick" contracting action can take about three years from concept to contract award, on what is generally a ten year contract. Our contracts can be extended for a bit in certain special circumstances and there is a legal limit of two years to contract extensions.

But the TSP contract could be something entirely different. I'm not familiar with it at all.

Lady