MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Looks like the S&P has bounced off of it's 50 DMA, which is a positive. Decided to hold my I Fund position and not go to cash, which I was slightly considering. According to the pundits, the market seems to be scared of a possible rate hike by the Fed. Every piece of positive news is met with a sell-off. Today's news that new claims for unemployment reached a 15 yr low sent the markets reeling. Between that and wage growth and consumer spending going up, you'd think the economy is just humming right along.

You would have thought yesterday's anemic GDP numbers would have sent the markets skyrocketing, but no! No soup for you! Such is life.
 
Thanks. I saw the VIX numbers also. Smells like...well let's just say it isn't that spring smell of May..

I find the QE in Europe unsettling. Greece, Spain, etc. Hope they figure out how to address their solvency issues. Same goes for our own country. Makes you wonder which banker is holding all that debt.

This is going to be an interesting year. Thanks for posting.

FS
 
Happy Friday y'all. Getting a nice oversold bounce this morning. It's a nice way to start the new month. Let's hope the uptrend can continue into next week. Transports are looking to put a foothold at the bottom BB. The same can be said for the dollar.

Large caps are continuing their outperformance over small caps. The R2K is barely positive on a day that the Dow is currently up 109+ points. EFA is doing ok, but the bounce in the USD will probably hurt the final numbers today. No need to panic, I'll hold my position, thank you very much.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Happy Friday y'all. Getting a nice oversold bounce this morning. It's a nice way to start the new month. Let's hope the uptrend can continue into next week. Transports are looking to put a foothold at the bottom BB. The same can be said for the dollar.

Large caps are continuing their outperformance over small caps. The R2K is barely positive on a day that the Dow is currently up 109+ points. EFA is doing ok, but the bounce in the USD will probably hurt the final numbers today. No need to panic, I'll hold my position, thank you very much.
Click to expand...

Good thing our S fund has mid caps to keep it green on days like these!
 
T'was a rough day for the portfolio yesterday, but today's rebound off the lows is a welcome sight. A bit worrisome to see bond yields going higher day after day, and Mr. VIX coming to life. The good news today is that internationals are doing well, and the USD is dropping again. I realize it's still early, but it should be a decent day for those of us holding the I Fund.

Was looking at the charts, and noticed that the Dow hit an intraday high of 17,991 on Dec 5th last year. Where are we today, May 6th? Why, about the same, currently 17,897. Lots of up and down churning going on in the last five months, and not much to show for it. Sure looks like an aging bull to me. It's just gonna be tougher to earn big returns this year.
 
I have the pleasure of reinvesting 219 dividends quarterly - so some R2K weakness is in my long term favor. Let the rotations continue. I'm not a trader but an income stream builder. Now when the time comes when I can get my wife out of the saddle and get access to her IRA money then trading may begin without tax consequences. There is almost $800K there now - that should be enough power to make serious capital gains as well as an income stream. So I sit and wait until she says it's time to rest.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
T'was a rough day for the portfolio yesterday, but today's rebound off the lows is a welcome sight. A bit worrisome to see bond yields going higher day after day, and Mr. VIX coming to life. The good news today is that internationals are doing well, and the USD is dropping again. I realize it's still early, but it should be a decent day for those of us holding the I Fund.

Was looking at the charts, and noticed that the Dow hit an intraday high of 17,991 on Dec 5th last year. Where are we today, May 6th? Why, about the same, currently 17,897. Lots of up and down churning going on in the last five months, and not much to show for it. Sure looks like an aging bull to me. It's just gonna be tougher to earn big returns this year.
Click to expand...
Hi MJR...Glad to hear your insight today. ...aging bull... seems this is going to be a tough year. I just keep waiting for the shoe to drop. I hope not. I've heard commentators on FBN say 2008/2009 was a rare occurrence, but its still fresh in my mind. But in G there is no money to be made. So gotta take some risk. I see prices look to be going up.. just hope this still has another small run up to be had. I am starting to think that I should not be fully invested, just in case. Then I think maybe should start using a 3 day strategy... very short term. Then again, start to think maybe stay long (for me that would be a full month or so). LOL... churning too much for me to figure out at this point. :worried:

For now I am staying in... 50% in I fund, 15% S fund and 20% C fund. Will see what the unemployment numbers are like on Friday.
Best wishes to you MJR and to everyone on your investments!!! :smile:
 
Birchtree said:
I have the pleasure of reinvesting 219 dividends quarterly - so some R2K weakness is in my long term favor. Let the rotations continue. I'm not a trader but an income stream builder. Now when the time comes when I can get my wife out of the saddle and get access to her IRA money then trading may begin without tax consequences. There is almost $800K there now - that should be enough power to make serious capital gains as well as an income stream. So I sit and wait until she says it's time to rest.
Click to expand...

Nice to hear from you, Chief. My wife is hoping to retire by the end of this year, but we may extend it to sometime next year if necessary. Congratulations on creating your dividend machine. You're in a excellent position.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi MJR...Glad to hear your insight today. ...aging bull... seems this is going to be a tough year. I just keep waiting for the shoe to drop. I hope not. I've heard commentators on FBN say 2008/2009 was a rare occurrence, but its still fresh in my mind. But in G there is no money to be made. So gotta take some risk. I see prices look to be going up.. just hope this still has another small run up to be had. I am starting to think that I should not be fully invested, just in case. Then I think maybe should start using a 3 day strategy... very short term. Then again, start to think maybe stay long (for me that would be a full month or so). LOL... churning too much for me to figure out at this point. :worried:

For now I am staying in... 50% in I fund, 15% S fund and 20% C fund. Will see what the unemployment numbers are like on Friday.
Best wishes to you MJR and to everyone on your investments!!! :smile:
Click to expand...

Nice to hear from you DBA. Indeed, we may have to adapt to new trading styles with this aging bull. I'm expecting lots of volatility. That might be good, if you can trade it properly. Best of luck to you.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Nice to hear from you DBA. Indeed, we may have to adapt to new trading styles with this aging bull. I'm expecting lots of volatility. That might be good, if you can trade it properly. Best of luck to you.
Click to expand...

I hope you can help me sort this out. I hope the numbers on Friday are helpful to keep the rally going a bit longer. Today the ADP employment numbers came in lower than expected at 169k for April. Are non-farm payrolls and non-farm private payrolls announced for Friday in direct relation to the ADP numbers so that we may expect lower or higher payrolls that might affect the stock market positively or negatively? Good Luck to all! Tia.
 
Anyone else notice that today's I Fund's daily return is 0.37% for some people and 0.38% for others? I'm not complaining, since I got 0.38%, but some kind of rounding error may be going on in the background.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Anyone else notice that today's I Fund's daily return is 0.37% for some people and 0.38% for others? I'm not complaining, since I got 0.38%, but some kind of rounding error may be going on in the background.
Click to expand...

4 digits does not a rounding error make when the autotracker displays only 2. if today's gain plus ytd = +xx.0049% you get 0.37. if it = xx.0051% you get 0.38. all your (pretend autotracker money) is still there. the difference is pennies in how it is represented.
 
burrocrat said:
4 digits does not a rounding error make when the autotracker displays only 2. if today's gain plus ytd = +xx.0049% you get 0.37. if it = xx.0051% you get 0.38. all your (pretend autotracker money) is still there. the difference is pennies in how it is represented.
Click to expand...

My only observation is that some got 0.37% and others (including myself) got 0.38%. I'm sure Tom will have an explanation for the discrepancy.
 
the gain today is calculated as a percentage of a person's ytd total, in four decimal places. the autotracker represents it as two decimal places. mystery solved.
 
also, the autotracker tracks an individual's performance as today minus yesterday divided by yesterday. it does not track i fund today minus i fund yesterday divided by i fund yesterday (unless you are the i fund.) god i am soo good at math but suck at explaining it. no offense sir.
 
I think your ageing bull analogy is exactly right. However I am hoping for enough market momentum to keep the bull going for the next 30 days. But who knows. I could roll dice and have more luck half the time. If Monday or Tuesday don't move in positive territory, I think I'll be back on the lily pad again. At close today S and c funds appear to have good momentum, reasonable RSI and MACD, and volume. One can only hope.

Thanks for sharing your analysis on the Dow. I agree the market has been treading water for some time.

FS
 
burrocrat said:
the gain today is calculated as a percentage of a person's ytd total, in four decimal places. the autotracker represents it as two decimal places. mystery solved.
Click to expand...

burrocrat said:
also, the autotracker tracks an individual's performance as today minus yesterday divided by yesterday. it does not track i fund today minus i fund yesterday divided by i fund yesterday (unless you are the i fund.) god i am soo good at math but suck at explaining it. no offense sir.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... well, there are five individuals who have held the I Fund throughout 2015 without any IFT's. Some have a gain yesterday of 0.37% and some have a gain of 0.38%. Math cannot explain that. My guess is that there's a programming error involved somewhere.
 
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