MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Here are the year end results for my Timing System vs. the S&P 500 for the past 5 years:

[TABLE="width: 210"]
[TR]
[TD]Date
[/TD]
[TD]S&P
[/TD]
[TD]TIMING
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-38.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL GAIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]79.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAGR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

There's good news and bad news with these results... First the bad news:

Very unusual and choppy market action caused my system to lose 2.2% since 11/18, while the market gained 3.5%. (My system zigged while the market zagged and vice versa). Unfortunately, this occurred right after I started my autotracker on Oct 17, which now shows a loss of -3.29%.

We all know there is no perfect mechanical timing system, and any trend following model is going to have periods of underperformance. Although it's very frustrating to lag the market during this time, I know that my system will keep me in the market during major upswings, and get me out during market crashes, which is very comforting.

Now the good news: This makes five consecutive years of my timing system outperforming the stock market. Compounded annual growth rate of my timing system is +12.4% compared to -2.4% for the S&P 500.

Here's to a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2012!
 
Congrats man, that's alot better than a bunch of us here! I am adopting a new strategy as well this year and will be checking your thread as well as some others here to compare timing. I'm also going to track the top five finishers from 2011 and use the winning allocation to help in my decision.

Thanks for an informative thread.

Best
 
Thanks James. There are a lot of good TSP Timers on this thread with incredible returns last year. Don't know if they have been able to perform that well year after year, or if it's just a matter of making some prescient calls in 2011.

Best of luck to you!
 
RealMoneyIssues has put together a nice spreadsheet with several market timers signals, including mine. I encourage everyone to check out his thread HERE.

Thanks RMI! Great idea! :)
 
Just to let everyone know, I am currently working on some additional refinements to my Timing System to further enhance it's performance. I'll keep you informed when I have more information to share.

To your success,

John
 
Here's why I believe it pays to stay OUT of the I Fund.

Below is a 1 year chart comparing the (approx) equivalent of the S Fund ($EMW) to the (approx) equivalent of the I Fund (EFA).

When the S Fund is outperforming the I Fund, the line will be heading higher. Conversely, if the I Fund were to outperform the S Fund, the line would be heading lower.

As you can see from the graph, most of the the last year was spent see-sawing higher and lower, with no clear advantage to either fund.

However, it is very clear to me that since October of last year, the S Fund has continually outperformed the I Fund, and is continuing to do so. Price action has stayed above the 50 day EMA since that time. I believe that the European debt crisis may be a big part of this outperformance. Also, China's market has been a disaster, which does not bode well for the Asian markets.

It might be a good idea to stay away from the I Fund until this picture improves.

Hope this helps,

John

SvsI.png
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Just checked. There are 27 people on the Autotracker who are 100% I Fund. I hope they read my post.

Good luck!

I Fund is cheap for a reason. Euro is as record low and their stock markets under value. I believe as soon as the cloud clear the I Fund will outperform the S. It is just the nature of the beast.
Click to expand...
 
b52vqn said:
MrJohnRoss said:
Just checked. There are 27 people on the Autotracker who are 100% I Fund. I hope they read my post.

Good luck!

I Fund is cheap for a reason. Euro is as record low and their stock markets under value. I believe as soon as the cloud clear the I Fund will outperform the S. It is just the nature of the beast.
Click to expand...

Hi b52,

I agree that the I Fund is cheap for a reason, but I only want to place my money on the fund that is going to provide the best return, not one that is clearly underperforming. The I Fund may continue to underperform for weeks or even months.

I guess my question to you is, why would you want to have your money in an underperforming fund?

If, in the future, the I Fund were to clearly begin to outperform the S Fund, I will gladly join you. Until then, I will continue to hold what I believe will provide the best return for my money.

Good luck!

JR
Click to expand...
 
MrJohnRoss said:
b52vqn said:
Hi b52,

I agree that the I Fund is cheap for a reason, but I only want to place my money on the fund that is going to provide the best return, not one that is clearly underperforming. The I Fund may continue to underperform for weeks or even months.

I guess my question to you is, why would you want to have your money in an underperforming fund?

If, in the future, the I Fund were to clearly begin to outperform the S Fund, I will gladly join you. Until then, I will continue to hold what I believe will provide the best return for my money.

Good luck!

Hi MrJR,

There is no argument about the funds performance. I think the "I" can outperform the S (cheap euro stocks vs U.S) as soon as the cloud hanging over Euro start to clear. Would you be able to acquire the I fund as cheap or cheaper than I am today in the near future is an unknown. I guess it is all depend on the S performance. There is an art in devided funds to maximize the gain and everyone looking at it with a different view. I believe people in the I fund as the moment because they would like to have cheap asset on their book just in case it starts to look good. Thanks for your great inputs and I do listen.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
OH MY! I think I've stumbled across a great new timing indicator! I will be doing some back testing, along with some performance calculations, but this could be a nice little supplement to my Timing System. I'll let you know what I find out in the coming days...

*Excited!*

:laugh:
 
MrJohnRoss said:
OH MY! I think I've stumbled across a great new timing indicator! I will be doing some back testing, along with some performance calculations, but this could be a nice little supplement to my Timing System. I'll let you know what I find out in the coming days...

*Excited!*

:laugh:
Click to expand...

Looking forward to it.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Thanks Kaufman. I see you use a subscription service / algorithm. Are you using one of the Premium Services available here, or is it from an outside source? Just curious.
Click to expand...


Yes, I subscribe to I_T and an outside called Sector Surfer, Sumgrowth.com, saw the add for it here. Subscribed to both last year, but mainly used I_T's advice to help me make some moves. Both systems finished positive for the year and beat the SP500, that's a plus.

I was a buy and holder 1988 until 2010. After Y2K and this last market tank I figured buy and hold wasn't what it used to be. In the 90's it was great. But of course I knew nothing of investing. Signed up for the services and have been reading books.

This year I am going to go long using the Surfer. Wasn't to sure on the Surfer, but 25 of 29 moves since 2005 I back tested have been positive and the losses weren't more than a few percent each time. if your interested I'll send the excel chart with my backtested data to look at.

I'll swing trade (in an out for a few days a month with the other half).

Always looking for more advice. Thanks for your posts.
 
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