MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

There's an old adage: "As goes January so goes the year."

There's also an adage that "as goes the first week of January, so goes the month".

Not sure if the first week can foretell the entire year, but it sure will be interesting to see how it plays out early.

Staying long NUGT and URTY for tomorrow.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Apparently, 2014 is going to give us fits. :blink:

Dow drops 80 points in the first half hour.

GLD, SLV, AGQ, and NUGT all flying high...

 

[Bquat]

Apparently, 2014 is going to give us fits. :blink:

Dow drops 80 points in the first half hour.

GLD, SLV, AGQ, and NUGT all flying high...

I did have a fear we would drop some as post holiday volume starts to pick up. Glad I'm at 50% in right now. I get nervous at 1828ish. We should get a buy the dip at 1833.5 S&P when the small gap is filled.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Probably just a bump on the road higher.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Staying long NUGT. Up 12% today.

URTY switched to SRTY. Duh. If you didn't switch out early, you weren't paying attention.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Asia Shares Roiled by Risk Aversion; Gold Gains

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Markets looking rather anemic on the bounce so far this morning. Perhaps the minor pullback has started. The decision is whether to ride it out, or move to cash. With only two IFT's, it's not an easy decision.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes..not sure whether to stay in. Tough call this morning.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Taking a step back to look at the weekly S&P 500 for the last three years, you can see that there really hasn't been a meaningful pullback since Sept 2012. Every pullback since has been a very shallow event that only lasted a short time before the market kept escalating up the major trend line that's been in place since Nov of last year. That's why it's been so difficult to time the market this year. Just when you think a pullback has started, the market makes you regret ever getting out.

We all know that the market won't behave like this forever, and each year brings it's own set of unique circumstances and events. Keep your eye on this major trend line. Until it's broken, the market has the upper hand, and it would be wise to stay fully invested while it remains intact.


View attachment 26365

Had to go back a couple of weeks to find this, but it still makes sense. Expecting the pullback to continue for a few more days, but the long term trend is still higher. It's been very difficult to time the markets lately, so perhaps (for now) I'll simply keep an eye on the major trend lines.

If your investment results last year did not live up to your expectations, perhaps it's worthwhile to examine the reasons why, and to make some changes to your game plan. I would recommend creating a "set of rules" or a "system" to keep your emotions out of the equation.

 

[Uptrend]

Had to go back a couple of weeks to find this, but it still makes sense. Expecting the pullback to continue for a few more days, but the long term trend is still higher. It's been very difficult to time the markets lately, so perhaps (for now) I'll simply keep an eye on the major trend lines.

If your investment results last year did not live up to your expectations, perhaps it's worthwhile to examine the reasons why, and to make some changes to your game plan. I would recommend creating a "set of rules" or a "system" to keep your emotions out of the equation.

The senate is expected to confirm "easy money" Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair. We should see the market explode Monday. I note the institutions are positioned for it by buying up SPY.
Bernanke: 2014 could be better year for US economy | 9news.com

 

[tsptalk]

The senate is expected to confirm "easy money" Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair. We should see the market explode Monday.

What ever happened to, buy the rumor - sell the news?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Market continues to deteriorate, and looks like it's rolling over. Higher beta stocks took a beating.

System says to stay long NUGT, up +1.73%.

SRTY remains a hold, up +2.38%.

The Dow 50 DMA is at 15,965, while the Dow is at 16,425. If we get back to "average", we need to drop another 460 Dow points. In reality, the 50 DMA is heading higher, so we may only drop half that amount to eventually meet up. Then, the odds are good we'll see a lot of money go to work in that area, if recent history is any guide.

Don't forget, the Fed is still injecting $75B a month into the system. This ship ain't going to go down easy.

 

[nsurf9]

Oh, the ship is going down, just not as fast as the rise in the QE water-level.

QE, allegedly, was discontinued between the end of 2013 and last Friday - perhaps to allow for some profit taking. However, QE started up again, today, with a low Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) schedule purchase that got knocked down by a drop in China PMI. Don't worry though, QE picks up steam next week (Wed).

Oh yeah, the fed lied about the $85 billion per month - it was closer to $94 billion in 2013, with about $15 billion in treasuries purchased just before Christmas - for that "feel good" effect.

Even with the printing, I'm looking for a little correction curve (of course, w/i reasonable bounds of the upward channel) before a another amazing, gravity-defining, leg up.

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(The only economic event you need to know.)

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Oh, the ship is going down, just not as fast as the rise in the QE water-level.

QE, allegedly, was discontinued between the end of 2013 and last Friday - perhaps to allow for some profit taking. However, QE started up again, today, with a low Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) schedule purchase that got knocked down by a drop in China PMI. Don't worry though, QE picks up steam next week (Wed).

Oh yeah, the fed lied about the $85 billion per month - it was closer to $94 billion in 2013, with about $15 billion in treasuries purchased just before Christmas - for that "feel good" effect.

Even with the printing, I'm looking for a little correction curve (of course, w/i reasonable bounds of the upward channel) before a another amazing, gravity-defining, leg up.

Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(The only economic event you need to know.)

I hear you brother. That was the problem with trying to time the markets last year. Just when you got out, BAM!, up goes the market a couple of hundred points.

There seems to be too much risk in moving to the sidelines and missing out on gains, then there is in losing money in the event of a "correction".

Eventually we will come to a tipping point, where the odds of said correction slowly increase. Of course, by that time, the smart money will have pulled out, and mom and pop will be left holding the empty bag.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice day for the markets. Both IBM and JNJ up ~2% for the day.

Systems continue to hold NUGT (eeked out a small +0.36% gain), and SRTY (down -2.68%). Personally, I think it might be wise to simply hold cash during these short term downswings, rather than betting on the downside. This market is just too strong to bet against it, unless your timing is impeccable.

Tomorrow will tell us if the short term trend has changed to a market moving higher, or if this is just a head fake rally on the way back down. My guess is we begin a slow melt up, courtesy of Yellen & Co.

 

[JTH]

Tomorrow will tell us if the short term trend has changed to a market moving higher, or if this is just a head fake rally on the way back down. My guess is we begin a slow melt up, courtesy of Yellen & Co.

Those are the answers I'm waiting for, I happen to believe we will pullback, but the evidence supporting that statement is limited. Right now it's a tight 5-day trading range which doesn't leave much room for speculation.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wow, I am surprised that the models for SRTY and NUGT did not change today. NUGT was down -4.5%, and SRTY was down -0.27%. Both are still a hold.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Private Sector Jobs Surge by 238,000 in December - ADP Jobs Report

 

[markmars]

Private Sector Jobs Surge by 238,000 in December - ADP Jobs Report

If the DOL numbers are the same we will see a rally.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Both systems flipped at the open this morning. I usually wait until end of day, but decided to sell my NUGT for a gain of < 1%. Boo. But I'd rather get out now than see it go down 5%.

System now holds DUST at 41.25. I will hold cash, thank you very much.

I think I'll wait until end of day to see how URTY/SRTY looks. Let's call it a weak buy signal for URTY at 87.40.