MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST system continues to hold DUST. Up 7.04% today.

URTY/SRTY system continues to hold SRTY. Down 0.41% today.

VXX is still a hold. Up 0.47% today

Still think the market has downside momentum, but we may get a counter-trend rally soon. Sticking to the G Fund for now, and waiting for a better buying opportunity.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Good economic news usually means a down day for the markets, but not today. The money gods are saying, "don't worry about QE ending, it's still party time".

Chief Heisenberg may be right... the melt up may continue.

Both GLD and SLV are producing Stoch and PPO buy signals. Step right up.

DUST is on the precipice of a sell signal. SRTY and VXX would have been sold this morning had I held them. It's a time of transition, and of caution, until a clear trend is in place. You don't want to get whipsawed.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

And the fade begins...

 

[uscfanhawaii]

And the fade begins...

Still...a real decent Friday on large volume. You SURE you want to be on the sidelines for Dec?!? :blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Took the plunge. 100% C as of close of business today. (Get ready for a nasty bear market to commence tomorrow morning).

The market is too high, but it just keeps going higher, so I'm gonna jump on the gravy train. Seasonality is also a big factor for my decision. We'll see how it plays out...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Took the plunge. 100% C as of close of business today. (Get ready for a nasty bear market to commence tomorrow morning).

The market is too high, but it just keeps going higher, so I'm gonna jump on the gravy train. Seasonality is also a big factor for my decision. We'll see how it plays out...

I wish I would have gone 100% C. S fund is lagging today.

 

[maverick06]

I was in C when S was doing better, and now am in S when C is doing better.... regardless, both are still doing pretty well.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I was in C when S was doing better, and now am in S when C is doing better.... regardless, both are still doing pretty well.

Next time I think I'll go 50/50.

 

[weatherweenie]

I was in C when S was doing better, and now am in S when C is doing better.... regardless, both are still doing pretty well.

At least you were in!

 

[tsptalk]

Uh, oh! Capitulation!? You're not the only one in the forum who is reluctantly jumping in, but yes, that is the sign. I haven't done it yet, but I've got my finger hovering over the Enter key. When I press it I'll let you know so you can get out again.

Took the plunge. 100% C as of close of business today. (Get ready for a nasty bear market to commence tomorrow morning).

The market is too high, but it just keeps going higher, so I'm gonna jump on the gravy train. Seasonality is also a big factor for my decision. We'll see how it plays out...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uh, oh! Capitulation!? You're not the only one in the forum who is reluctantly jumping in, but yes, that is the sign. I haven't done it yet, but I've got my finger hovering over the Enter key. When I press it I'll let you know so you can get out again.

There is some taper "pre meeting" talk which is beginning to make me a little nervous.

 

[Birchtree]

How many months of tapering will it take if they drop off $5B permonth until they are finished at zero?

 

[jkenjohnson]

How many months of tapering will it take if they drop off $5B permonth until they are finished at zero?

I don't even know how much they are spending per month?

 

[tsptalk]

$85 billion

 

[jkenjohnson]

$85 billion

The fade has started after the pre taper talk.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

... Chief Heisenberg may be right... the melt up may continue.

Both GLD and SLV are producing Stoch and PPO buy signals. Step right up.

DUST is on the precipice of a sell signal. SRTY and VXX would have been sold this morning had I held them. It's a time of transition, and of caution, until a clear trend is in place. You don't want to get whipsawed.

GLD and SLV moving higher, right on cue. AGQ (2x leveraged Silver) is up over 4% so far today.

NUGT/DUST system looks like it's going to move to NUGT today. Up over 6% as I type.

URTY/SRTY is technically still holding URTY, but it's looking weak.

VXX/XIV is still holding XIV, as Mr. VIX saw his shadow, and went back into hiding.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sorry for the late post, but my work schedule is insane right now. 10-12 hour days for the rest of the week, so very little time to post.

NUGT/DUST had a very nice day, as NUGT was up 11.56%

URTY/SRTY switched to SRTY. URTY down 2.67% today.

VXX/XIV is still holding XIV, and was down slightly, -0.57%.

GLD, SLV, and the miners is where the current action is. AGQ (2X silver) had a nice gain of +5.44.

My decision to enter the market yesterday wasn't the best timing, but I'm hoping today was just a minor setback on it's continual trek higher. The anticipated pullback of the S&P to the 50 DMA never happened, so momentum and seasonality were just too much for me to resist. The short term indicators say we go higher. What happens next month remains to be seen, with the budget mess, and possible QE tapering, but that's an issue for another day.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wow. Is it possible for anyone to have worse luck this year timing the market? I don't think so.

If I haven't said it before, let me say it now: Don't follow my lead. Another perverse day, where a possible budget deal (should be good news for the market), causes the market to spin out of control. Go figure.

Now that that's out the way, let's put this in perspective. One down day should not cause a panic. As long as liquidity is still pumping morphene into the addicts arm, then we should eventually go higher, right? Between that and near all time low interest rates, we have the rocket fuel for the market to go higher.

And now for the prologue: The market may go down and test the 50 DMA (finally), like I've been expecting for over a month. (I think the market gods just wanted to be sure I climbed aboard first.) Assuming we go that far down, I will likely stay in. Last year I bailed out in Dec as the market cut through the 50 day, and sure enough, the market rocketed higher immediately after. We shall see.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST lost nearly everything it gained yesterday, down -10.46%. It wasn't quite enough to cause a switch, but if metals go significantly lower tomorrow, a switch is possible.

SRTY had a gain of 4.85% today. Nice to have one winner in the arsenal.

XIV got clobbered -4.73% today. System switches back to VXX.

AGQ was down -1.03%, but is still a hold.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

After a 14 hr work day on Thu, and a 10 hr work day on Fri, I'm just now getting a chance to post.

Here's how the systems are doing:

NUGT/DUST continues to hold NUGT, but there's lots of choppy action, and it could go either way. There is no clear momentum on either side. The same can be said of AGQ and the metals/miners market.

URTY/SRTY continues to hold SRTY, even thought it's had two mild down days.

VXX/XIV continues to hold VXX.

SPX is in a short term downtrend, and the Stoch has finally reached the oversold level. The 50 DMA is not far below, about -14 on the S&P, or -100 on the Dow. Perhaps we'll get there next week. For those in cash, look for the Stoch to turn up and cross the 20 level for a buy signal. Just be careful to watch for a possible head fake rally.