MrBowl's Account Talk

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I bailed to the G Fund yesterday.

The contrarian Sentiment Survey vote came in very bullish last Thurs and I believe it's still a great system. It trades on a weekly basis so you can get an edge on it if you pick the days right. Much easier said than done, but the huge move up yesterday is nice to lock in when one of our leading indicators points to an overall down week.

Also, I hadn't really thought about the Fed announcement of the end of QE, but I have my eye on the 3rd qtr GDP announcement tomorrow. I think there is a fair chance that it's a disappointment (<3%) due to the poor economic news that has trickled in over the past 2-3 months.

I plan to buy back in on a big down day, and that could even be before the end of the month. Even if it doesn't, I'm now ahead of my summer peak.

The S fund peaked at +7% on 9/2
I bought the S Fund when it was +2.26% on 9/29
The S Fund bottomed at -5.02% on 10/13
The S Fund reached +3.74% on 10/28 (yesterday)

The 8.76% run up in 11 trading days is what I mean when I say that the S Fund is the rocket ship that will take you out of dips the fastest and farthest.

I think there could be some volatility the rest of this week, followed by an attempt to set new yearly highs in Nov.
 
I blew it on the GDP announcement. Revisions almost never affect the market. So, I'm on the wrong side of this. I still think volatility might be in our near future. I think I will wait till election day to buy back in, or the day before. Elections are usually good for the market, probably because its a celebration of our democratic process. Having a choice makes people feel good.
 
I had been in the C fund since dec 30 and market behavior bugged me ever since. I was able to exit without too much damage on Friday.

Lots of global news stories are a big concern. Plus, the action in gold, oil, bond yields, and foreign markets and GDP has been a concern. Here's a quick article that illustrates the concern over market performance.

New York trader: Beware head-and-shoulders chart
 
I had moved back into the S Fund in mid Feb after seeing the market rise 2.5% in the time that I was out, so I got frustrated and moved back in. Since then the market has been up and down, but overall its about where it was when I moved back in.

My gut feeling is that regardless of the Fed's language today, the market will probably trend downward in the coming days/weeks, so I moved to the G.

As always, I could be wrong on this, and I have another IFT to move back in if I need to this month. I wouldn't recommend that anyone else follow my moves anyway until/if I can put together a long track record of success.
 
Sounds like a good plan to me. That was my plan but I jumped the gun and got out last Friday and then got back in but I would much rather be in your position.
 
There's always a chance that I will be sitting on my rear end in the Garage (G fund) watching you two and everyone else rocketing upward. Time will tell

I thought "Now that this is behind us the market is free to move downward or even correct", but the market has a mind of its own and it might be more correct to say "now that this is behind us the market is free to surge upward to new highs".

One way or another, I hope everyone here does well.
 
nice move on your out today. that's good money you got in your pocket not on this wild table now. if there is a strong open tomorrow i think i am following you.
 
Thanks! So far, so good. However, Its only the 8th and I can only go to the G at this point. So it will be a miracle if I can hold on to 1st till the end of the month.
 
Easy come, easy go. Well, I didn't reach 9+% up for the year in late June that easily. But, it sure has flown out the window with no trouble.

I think I may still be slightly positive for the year after today, and I bailed. I was stubborn and gave up almost all of my gains in the past 7 weeks. We never stop learning lessons here. #1 is always not to get too confident. It's a brand new ballgame and the only way to approach it is with enthusiasm.

My feeling is that lower lows are coming. I believe any up days in the near future will be false turnarounds. Perhaps my buy back in day will be next week, perhaps in sept. As always, we shall see.
 
MrBowl said:
Easy come, easy go. Well, I didn't reach 9+% up for the year in late June that easily. But, it sure has flown out the window with no trouble.

I think I may still be slightly positive for the year after today, and I bailed. I was stubborn and gave up almost all of my gains in the past 7 weeks. We never stop learning lessons here. #1 is always not to get too confident. It's a brand new ballgame and the only way to approach it is with enthusiasm.

My feeling is that lower lows are coming. I believe any up days in the near future will be false turnarounds. Perhaps my buy back in day will be next week, perhaps in sept. As always, we shall see.
Click to expand...

Negative year to date returns begin at # 398 on the autotracker. For 979 non premium service members, that's just pathetic.
 
Having puts and stops, more trades, more funds, more service and better access to avoid bad days would make a tremendous difference. We're not able to move out of a bad situation fast enough because the system is archaic. Hurts everyone. I was amazed at all the blood in the streets I saw when I visited the Tracker yesterday. I haven't visited today.

FS
 
You have to watch big losses like this, they set up a trap sometimes with a day up to draw in the suckers and continue down the next, Wait for conformation of the bottom, you may lose a day or two of gains while waiting but it's mostly the smartest thing to do.
 
What do you think will happen in Asia and Europe Sunday night? I bet they react negatively to our plunge. Then we start out negative Monday and maybe turn around 2nd half of Monday, possibly finishing Monday positive. Don't be fooled by an up day. This could go on for several days or a few weeks, in my opinion.

I won't buy back in until after two consecutive up days. Of course, the global picture is what is driving this and how much will be resolved by Monday afternoon?

I've seen articles and talking heads for months talk about an eventual correction, and most traders get tired of waiting as the tumble fails to materialize. Dips are bought and soon forgotten. When the correction finally happens many are caught off guard. It's the way these things typically go.

One other consideration is that the speed and momentum of this move could possibly be a fat tail event. So much trading is done by computer algorithms that may not handle fat tail events well, and that could make the knife fall further.
 
Like everyone I really don't know how far it will drop, and yes I think Europe and the rest may react poorly. I really think we will have more to the downside but what the heck do I know. Korean problem may escalate.
 
Most of us have forgotten about Korea. Team Spirit apparently halted. Whatever they call it now. Foal Eagle. If an eagle has a foal I guess it would be serious?

Just one more thing.

PO
 
This slide and last October one are similar in some ways. I bought into L2030 part-way through the slide last October and bailed near the bottom. Textbook investor stupidity. Told myself, I would turn off the TV and I didn't. That's OCD behavior and I knew I had a weakness. I learned from that one about market timing, patience and how quickly the market can bounce right back up. I had no IFT's and could only watch from the G Fund. In the old days when we got statements, no real internet, it was so much easier to ignore. I think I rode out the 2008-09 crash better than that one anxiety-wise. But, I had less money invested too.

MrBowl said:
What do you think will happen in Asia and Europe Sunday night? I bet they react negatively to our plunge. Then we start out negative Monday and maybe turn around 2nd half of Monday, possibly finishing Monday positive. Don't be fooled by an up day. This could go on for several days or a few weeks, in my opinion.

I won't buy back in until after two consecutive up days. Of course, the global picture is what is driving this and how much will be resolved by Monday afternoon?

I've seen articles and talking heads for months talk about an eventual correction, and most traders get tired of waiting as the tumble fails to materialize. Dips are bought and soon forgotten. When the correction finally happens many are caught off guard. It's the way these things typically go.

One other consideration is that the speed and momentum of this move could possibly be a fat tail event. So much trading is done by computer algorithms that may not handle fat tail events well, and that could make the knife fall further.
Click to expand...
 
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