MrBowl's Account Talk

[99percent]

I didn't jump in on the 19th like I had planned to. I was just too busy at work. And that worked out good. As the losses mounted for the stock funds I weighed whether to jump in, almost daily. There was even a day that I tried to log into tsp.gov but I forgot my 50-digit login, so that saved me too. Finally, I was home on monday and able to look up my login information. I decided to jump in because I was negative for Sept and there was only one trading day left that I could use to move into positive territory for the month. That was a poor idea.

So now I'm down 2.5% in two days, going from just a bit above the G Fund for the year to negative for the year, just like that! I have some things I look for during a correction that signals my buy-in. Wanting to be positive at the end of the month isn't one of them. The S Fund is now down about 8% over the past month. The news items out there aren't as potentially catastrophic as they were in the summer of 2011 when the S fund dropped 22% in 11 days (The bottom of that correction, and low point of that year was midday Oct 4!).

Although there's talk of some elements of the economy slowing, plus China's possible slowdown, I don't think the U.S. is heading into a recession any time soon. QE is ending, but I think that the mental (investor sentiment) aspect of it has been factored in, but I could be wrong.

I think we'll see the markets turn around by the end of next week. There's only one more thing I'm looking for, and that happens over two days. If I was out, the earliest my buy-in day could be is Tuesday or Wednesday. Since I'm in I'll hang on and let the S Fund bring me out of this dip. Remember, after the Oct 4, 2011 low the S Fund ended up +17% for the month!

S Fund save us!

 

[MrBowl]

If this goes as typical there will be lower lows next week. I thought about jumping out today and getting back in on wed to play that, but ran out of time this morning. Good luck to us all

 

[OBXTrader]

I would think with Germany's DAX (10% of I Fund) closed today and Europe/Asia closed after the 12pm push higher we will have some positive follow-through on Monday. We are the engine, but the other train cars are important.

If this goes as typical there will be lower lows next week. I thought about jumping out today and getting back in on wed to play that, but ran out of time this morning. Good luck to us all

 

[MrBowl]

Since I stayed in I hope you're right.

I would think with Germany's DAX (10% of I Fund) closed today and Europe/Asia closed after the 12pm push higher we will have some positive follow-through on Monday. We are the engine, but the other train cars are important.

 

[MrBowl]

The good news is that for the first time in a long time the market followed a pattern that I built my trading strategy around. While this has been a minor correction in the C fund, or maybe the magnitude is too small to even call it a correction, the S fun is down about 8 percent or so since Sept 2. I moved out of the S fund on Sept 10th and that wasn't too bad. My move back into the S fund COB on 9/29 was for the wrong reason and it cost me. If I had been disciplined today would've been my buy in day. So, as far as closing numbers go, today might be a lower close than we saw last Wednesday. If I had managed my time better last Friday I would've moved to the G Fund, and back into the S Fund today, as mentioned in my post last week. It always feels good when the strategy works out.

But in this case it didn't work out because I didn't follow it. So, more discipline is needed in the future. That's always an internal battle that some of us fight. Anyway, the other good news is that if the strategy continues to verify we will begin a very healthy rally tomorrow or Thursday, and the first 3 to 5 days will produce the bulk of the gains. Good luck to us all!

 

[MrBowl]

Looks like the bottom has hit. This is working out nicely

 

[OBXTrader]

Aren't you glad you didn't panic? I am still insanely under-exposed to stocks right now, but glad I am in the game in the TSP. Told you we are the engine, watch Europe follow-through tomorrow.

If we could pick the tops and bottoms, we would be jillionaires. That said, buying on October 2nd, was the second best day for me to invest in the L2030 besides yesterday.

Looks like the bottom has hit. This is working out nicely

 

[MrBowl]

Aren't you glad you didn't panic? I am still insanely under-exposed to stocks right now, but glad I am in the game in the TSP. Told you we are the engine, watch Europe follow-through tomorrow.

If we could pick the tops and bottoms, we would be jillionaires. That said, buying on October 2nd, was the second best day for me to invest in the L2030 besides yesterday.

Yeah, so far, so good on this one. I hope Europe responds, and we respond to their up day tomorrow. The next 5 trading days are very important. Of course, I hope that the market moves several % points upward before thinking about leveling off.

 

[MrBowl]

Today is a very disappointing day. It doesn't necessarily break the pattern and negate the strategy because the low/buy-in day is soft. My day 4 buy-in is a historical average.

Today is potentially a bad sign and there needs to be no further downside. This is why there are no sure things and investing was never promised to be easy.

I will avoid the panic and stay the course. I still expect to have a positive October.

 

[MrBowl]

Obviously, the bottom didn't hit last Tuesday as I'd hoped. That means that this correction is a bit more serious. My stance has gone from confident to stubborn :blink: and those can both be costly mindsets.

I don't know if yesterday was the bottom, but it sure seems that investors are very skittish and there is heavy selling in the final hour last day. That's probably partly due to fear and partly due to people/hedge funds having to liquidate because they became over leveraged.

It's been about 6 weeks since the peak. Today doesn't make me think that we hit our "V" bottom and we're shooting up on high volume, so who knows how the rest of the week will go. I do know that the elevator that I rode down is the one I want to be on for the ride up, so I'll stay put.

 

[MrBowl]

The elevator started up last week. I should not beat myself up too much because I declared the 7th my buy in day, while the 15th or 16th would have been better. But, a perfect set of moves would've saved a few more percent. That's all behind us now. The S fund is up more than 4 percent since the 13th, and today will add to that. It's hard to believe that this could happen during the darkest hour, but that is occasionally the way the market rebounds. That's why I referenced Oct 2011. Remember, after the V low on the 4th of that year the S fund rallied 17 percent. It's a rocketship ride that you don't want to miss.

 

[Birchtree]

Every day the market is open I'm buying something - simply dollar cost averaging my dividends. It's the simple way to build wealth. The longer the market remains weak the more shares I can accumulate and that provides a larger dividend three months later. I'm really looking forward to December.

 

[Cactus]

Every day the market is open I'm buying something - simply dollar cost averaging my dividends. It's the simple way to build wealth. The longer the market remains weak the more shares I can accumulate and that provides a larger dividend three months later. I'm really looking forward to December.

Why's that, BT? Is that when you expect your dividends or do you expect prices to be significantly cheaper by then? :blink:

 

[Birchtree]

If stocks are cheaper in December then I'm accepting of lower prices - it doesn't really matter to me in the long run. I'd like to secretly have a +$400K month but then I'm probably just dreaming.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47832.html

"Remember this, the market can fool you in a heart beat. When you think one thing is destined to happen it can throw you off course in a moments time."

 

[MrBowl]

DCA really builds wealth over the long run. I really don't have funds outside of the TSP to invest, unfortunately. In the TSP I tend to swing for the fences.

Keep going, Birch. Having some ammo set aside to go shopping when stocks are on sale is very smart.

 

[MrBowl]

The S Fund dropped 12% over 6 weeks from Sept 2 through Oct 13

It's gained half of that back in the past 6 trading days.

 

[Cactus]

From my experience, inside our TSP DCA only makes a difference when you first start out and don't have much in there. After about 10 years you don't see much change unless you have now drastically increased your contributions. As far as dividends go we don't really get those in our index funds. We only see price changes per share.

 

[MrBowl]

From my experience, inside our TSP DCA only makes a difference when you first start out and don't have much in there. After about 10 years you don't see much change unless you have now drastically increased your contributions. As far as dividends go we don't really get those in our index funds. We only see price changes per share.

Yes, I was referring to how Birch buys his stocks and collects dividends, and that I don't really have the outside accts to do that. My general feeling about contributions is to watch the multi year high and low and pick the mid point. If the market is in the lower half have your contributions go to stock funds and if you're in the upper half have contributions go to the G Fund. Its more meaningful when you make fewer moves. Ideally, I think 2 to 6 moves is enough to do real well. I don't have the discipline to do that yet.

 

[MrBowl]

According to Jim Cramer, the 10 items he needed to call a market bottom were checked off over the weekend. Ebola will continue to be an issue, as we saw about an hour ago when rumors flew that a Dr had come down with Ebola and the market gave up a portion of its big gains today. Yesterday Cramer answered another question, since the market fell after his statement that we're in the clear now, by saying that any dip for now should be considered a buying opportunity rather than signs of a treacherous market. It seemed to me that a lot of the market action yesterday was due to the Canadian terrorist attack.

I do see a potential that we're in the early stages of a much bigger correction, but I think there's only a small chance of that so I'm burrying those negative thoughts and staying fully invested.

 

[jpcavin]

I'm burrying those negative thoughts and staying fully invested.

Good for ya!