MrBowl's Account Talk

[MrBowl]

As I said in the other forum I'm still in - 60% S and 405 I. A rising dollar has the potential to really affect the performance of the TSP funds, esp the I and F funds.

Are we seeing the first signs of the Fed easing on their policies? Things are changing. The global currency war is spreading. The dollar made a huge jump yesterday and the F fund got hammered. Bernanke's statements indicate that he's worried about an equities bubble now. Another debt ceiling deadline comes in a week. All of these things have the potential to shake up the markets. Take a look at these

Bernanke Takes a "Leak" | Zero Hedge

The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is Out | Zero Hedge

Still, the rally is on and I'm in until I see better topping signs. Good luck

 

[MrBowl]

The S&P 500 is up 294 pts, or around 22%, since the current round of QE began in mid November...Whew! I should've trusted myself more. I jumped into the S fund on Nov 14 and I shouldn't have made a single move since then.

Who knows how long this will last? Nobody, but several people here have some pretty reasonable guesses. I'm still in at 60% S & 40% I.

 

[MrBowl]

I track the Auto Tracker every single day. I look at my ranking as well as the rankings of several others. I need to be aggressive long-term if I ever want to retire, due to stupid financial mistakes in my past.

There is no way that I can reach my goals in the F or G funds, so I find myself cheering for the Birchtree/Jimmy Joe side. Also, I'm a bit of a gambler and its just much more satisfying to be in the game. I hate being on the sidelines. That's an emotion that really needs to be controlled ;-) Never let emotions get in the way of smart decisions.

Tracking the Tracker gives me a perspective and tells me what a good performance really is at any given time and situation. It keeps me from getting complacent and satisfied. One thing I have learned is that the current situation - that out of nearly 1100 ppl only 5 are beating the S Fund and only 21 are below zero - can't last. In fact, I don't recall a situation like this ever lasting this late into the year.

oh, well, don't fight the trend. We all just need to be vigilant and nimble, but don't cheat yourselves out of great gains because there will be months at a time when decent gains are not available.

 

[MrBowl]

I moved to 100% G COB today to lock in my best May ever. In fact, even if I'd been in the G Fund all month it would be my best May ever. In 2010 I jumped into the I fund very early in the month and lost 10% in 3 days. I never recovered. So this year I'm elated to have a positive May. I just hope that the stupid 4 hr time lag doesn't sting me too much.

I think there's a lot more potential down side in Ben's speech tomorrow, so I made the decision to watch from the sideline. If I'm wrong June is just around the corner. I think it's not too much of a stretch to imagine May closes higher than it is now (S&P 500), and I think that June could easily be an up month. So, I will be looking for the next buy in opportunity.

 

[remark]

Sure wish I had knowledge that Ben was speaking tomorrow!:notrust: I agree, potential to the down side and would not have moved back in today. Best of luck everyone!

 

[MrBowl]

remark, you've done fantastic. It could be that I'll be on the sideline gaining 0.006% per day while watching you move toward 25% on the year. I make the wrong move lots of times so only time will tell. It will be an interesting final hour today as ppl position themselves for tomorrow. Maybe it will be a non-news event.

 

[MrBowl]

I'm still in the G fund, but looking to buy in soon, maybe COB Thursday. I'm waiting for another Fed Pres speech (Fisher on Thurs, I think) to buy in at a low point. I think at that point the jobs report on Friday will not matter much, and a new rally will start Friday, and continue the rest of the month. Just my guess.

 

[MrBowl]

Here is another article that supports my position. The chart is a touch different than one's I've posted before, because it actually measures the Fed's balance sheet. The message is very clear...see my signature.

What Happens When The Fed Hits The Breaks? This Chart From 2009 Holds Some Clues | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

That being said, I think the weakness in the market lately is the Fed testing the waters to see how hints of tapering QE ripples through the markets. The ripples seem pretty big, and I think QE will continue at its current levels through the summer.

 

[coolhand]

Here is another article that supports my position. The chart is a touch different than one's I've posted before, because it actually measures the Fed's balance sheet. The message is very clear...see my signature.

What Happens When The Fed Hits The Breaks? This Chart From 2009 Holds Some Clues | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

That being said, I think the weakness in the market lately is the Fed testing the waters to see how hints of tapering QE ripples through the markets. The ripples seem pretty big, and I think QE will continue at its current levels through the summer.

Nice post. This has been largely a Fed fueled market for several years now. I've noted that when liquidity goes up or down, the market follows. Talk about manipulation. It's not a good thing when the market is not allowed to find it's own price. And I also note that sentiment, while bullish in some spots, is only bullish while the Fed has the punch bowl available. There's still a lot of money out there that isn't participating in this bull market. And our economy? Hardly strong enough to have the market tank for the longer term. Seems to me the powers that be are between a rock and hard place. Where does that put us?

 

[MrBowl]

Nice post. This has been largely a Fed fueled market for several years now. I've noted that when liquidity goes up or down, the market follows. Talk about manipulation. It's not a good thing when the market is not allowed to find it's own price. And I also note that sentiment, while bullish in some spots, is only bullish while the Fed has the punch bowl available. There's still a lot of money out there that isn't participating in this bull market. And our economy? Hardly strong enough to have the market tank for the longer term. Seems to me the powers that be are between a rock and hard place. Where does that put us?

Coolhand, I agree. Make money while you can, but be nimble and ready for a quick move to safety. This bubble could deflate a lot when the time comes.

I feel bad for those of you who work so hard on TA. You know a ton and I learn a lot from it, then this unnatural market defies a lot of the typical behavioral patterns. It's got to be frustrating. But I'm sure one day we'll return to freer markets.

 

[Sensei]

Coolhand, I agree. Make money while you can, but be nimble and ready for a quick move to safety. This bubble could deflate a lot when the time comes.

I feel bad for those of you who work so hard on TA. You know a ton and I learn a lot from it, then this unnatural market defies a lot of the typical behavioral patterns. It's got to be frustrating. But I'm sure one day we'll return to freer markets.

For someone like me, who has only watched the stock market since 2010, a manipulated market is the only one I know. I always chuckle inside when I read people's posts that the market isn't behaving the way it's supposed to. I kind of doubt that. I'll bet the market's been manipulated by someone, somewhere, for as long as it's been in existence, and it's probably always been hard to time. I think TA still has its place. It's just never going to be a sure thing.

 

[MrBowl]

For someone like me, who has only watched the stock market since 2010, a manipulated market is the only one I know. I always chuckle inside when I read people's posts that the market isn't behaving the way it's supposed to. I kind of doubt that. I'll bet the market's been manipulated by someone, somewhere, for as long as it's been in existence, and it's probably always been hard to time. I think TA still has its place. It's just never going to be a sure thing.

Well, no sure thing. You're right there. There may never be any time that you can rest easy and say that the market is behaving. To me, this is a news/fed driven market and thats the way I'm playing it. I've had some minor success. But whats important will change and in order to be successful we have to be ready to shift our focus to the next market-driver.

 

[MrBowl]

The market action looks good enough for me...100% S fund COB today.

Occasionally some people discuss whether or not the Fed and QE is actually responsible for the market performance over the past 4+ years. It's obvious where I stand, but to be more specific it is the investing community's impression of QE that is really driving the market, rather than the actual POMO action. These last two weeks really drive that point home because, as far as I know, there has been no actual change in the QE program yet, but the view of the future of QE has changed.

 

[Mapper]

I don't poke my head in all that often anymore but that last post was right on, in my book. For what its worth. I also went all in today...completely independent of that post. My reasoning was that I see a rounded top that I think/hope will bounce off the 50 day MA and continue on upward.

 

[MrBowl]

I don't poke my head in all that often anymore but that last post was right on, in my book. For what its worth. I also went all in today...completely independent of that post. My reasoning was that I see a rounded top that I think/hope will bounce off the 50 day MA and continue on upward.

Same here...the idea that the 50 dma would hold, as it has since Nov, that corrections during QE are usually only 3-5%, and timing (thinking that jobs 3 provides a boost tomorrow) were all considerations. Good luck to us both, and anyone else that's long.

I hope we still feel smart about our moves a week from now

 

[MrBowl]

I think the behavior since the initial selloff in late May/early June has been the typical sideways zigzagging that we sometimes see, like we did mid Aug through until early Oct, 2011. This was not as strong a correction, of course, and the zigzagging should not occur as long.

The big day will be here tomorrow. Anyone who didn't bail by noon EDT today is strapped in to this rollercoaster. I can't imagine anyone making an IFT tomorrow, since Ben speaks after our IFT deadline. The market has a high chance of being radically different at the close compared to our noon EDT IFT deadline, and I only have a guess which way it will trend in the afternoon.

Remember, its not quite what Bernanke says, its the market's impression of what he says that matters. I am reasonably confident that he will say "no change in POMO for the foreseeable future" because this is his program and his criteria for backing off QE has not been met. Besides, the FED likes to make changes at their annual Jackson Hole meeting - in Sept this year.

It all comes down to specific words he uses, how many "uhms" he says, and which hand he uses to take off his glasses - in other words, small details about this speech could determine the direction of the market.

I stayed in today (100% S fund) for a couple reasons. 1) Ben is about the most dovish Fed memeber so his comments have a fair chance of propelling the market upward. 2) I don't have any more IFTs for June so I must evaluate what the chances are of the market being higher at the end of June compared to now (or at least noon EDT today), regardless of one- or two- day market tumbles. I think there's a pretty good chance that we are higher June 30.

I still like Clester's forecast, which calls for the next peak in July, followed by a bigger correction. If the market is higher than current levels at the end of June then I say that he's still dead on with his forecast. If we don't tumble in July then we can call it a Birchtree-Jimmy Joe market.

 

[MrBowl]

Well, we got that out of the way. Ben's speech seemed pretty straight forward so maybe its the more specifically stated time table that investors didn't like. I thought the least likely outcome was a flat close, and the most likely was a pretty hefty drop since it would be almost impossible for Ben to word things in a way that didn't spook longer-term investors.

QE continues at full strength for now, so its obvious that the POMO itself is not the driver, that the investor sentiment of QE is what's important. I believe there is a pretty decent chance that we finish the month above this level so I will stay 100% S. If the market rises far enough before then I may lock in some gains. Similarly, it is wise to have a bail to safety number and I will just call that 1600 on the S&P 500.

Good luck to all

 

[MrBowl]

The selloff late yesterday and today has been so severe that its unlikely the market will be back at tuesday's level before the end of the month.

Staying in was a gamble that will likely not pay off. I entered the market when the S&P closed at 1622. Who knows if we'll see that again.

The 4 hr time lag was a killer again. I didn't move to the G by the deadline when the S&P was above 1600, and now its well below. Tomorrow will tell us if today was an over-reaction.

The QE continues as before for the next 2-4 months, but gold, interest rates, bonds and the stock market are focusing much more on the exit time table. Then end of the effectiveness of QE could mean that the market zigzags downward in a pattern sort of like the Oct 2007 - Aug 2008 time frame, a 20% or so loss without any real crash. I don't expect a total unwind of the QE-driven market while QE is still continuing at full strength, but we may eventually find out where the market would be without QE within the next year.

 

[MrBowl]

I bailed today from the S to the G fund. After losing about 5.5% from my high point on the 18th over 4 days I consider myself lucky to possibly break even for June. I was not very disciplined this month and did not stick to my strategy.

Anyway, I'm thankful for the 3 day rally and I really have no confidence in where the market heads next, so I'll watch from the sidelines until I get a better idea.

 

[ravensfan]

I bailed today from the S to the G fund. After losing about 5.5% from my high point on the 18th over 4 days I consider myself lucky to possibly break even for June. I was not very disciplined this month and did not stick to my strategy.

Anyway, I'm thankful for the 3 day rally and I really have no confidence in where the market heads next, so I'll watch from the sidelines until I get a better idea.

I'm with you MrBowl. I bailed from the S and C to the G COB today. I think the 3 day rally was just 2nd qtr icing on the cake to finish on the up side. My tea leaves say the first 2 weeks of July will likely be ok, but after that, we are heading down. I'm sitting in G waiting to buy the dip!!!