More Pain to come

[CountryBoy]

Good morning,

After reading the following 2 articles, it leads me to believe that we have more pain coming and that we're not near the bottom yet. We may have some bear rally's, but I'm still very cautious. If we're down again today and tomorrow, I may push some into the C Fund, it's risky, but I would've pushe in over Columbus day, but I didn't want to sit in the market on Tuesday also. I'm playing the odds. I should've jumped into the F fund when it got below 12, because it's been good to me when it hits that level, but I missed that opportunity due mainly to, well fear of losing what gains I have made this year, snall though they may be. I feel like I'm doing all my gambling on my ROTH's which have taken a beating, but I'm still buying as they fall.


http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...op+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+++analysis

Do ya'll think we're near the bottom or further to fall?

CB

 

[Show-me]

Morning CB,

Here is goes. We are doooomed! The credit markets have not begun to thaw out enough to make a difference to the "real" economy which is small businesses and the consumer.

Lay offs are accelerating which means more people without disposable income and people with spare cash are scared and sitting on it. By that I mean no durable goods purchases or crap we don't absolutely need.

I look at this as a type of thermal run away in a battery. Resistance breaks down from heat and current flows faster creating more heat, causing resistance to drop lower, causing more heat, causing more current, .................... melt down.

Banks have been saved by the government. Make no mistake the gov. will write what ever check is needed. BUT, that does not mean the bank are going to lend money to small businesses and the consumer at the rate they did or at all. They are in self preservation mode and they don't care about you, me, the economy, or political opinion. Self preservation!

Clark Howard, on the radio, said that American Express has put in place a program to weed out high risk card users. A bit late I would say. If you have their card and use it at Wal-Mart or other "red flag" retailers they shut your card down because they figure if you are shopping there and you have their card you are about at the end of your rope. The are also flagging Countrywide Mortgage customers.

The key to our economy bouncing back is simple, remember this we are a two thirds consumer driven economy. The consumer has been broke for a long time and the corporations kept feeding them credit like a crack whores. They took it and spent every dime on crap they wanted and not needed, now the scheme has come home to roost and there is no more credit to keep the ball rolling.

No jobs, no credit, no stimulus, no money, no buying crap that keeps the economy rolling.

This will take years to fix and the next President will likely be a one term President because they can not spend their way out of this one. They can blame Bush all they want but that argument will only last so long until someone like me pushes the argument that we have a Congress that should keep a "checks and balances". The are as much to blame and Bush.

The next President will have to make tough choices and not pander to the voters and buy votes with stimulus money and home loans. Cut, cut, cut spending to the core. Reduce government by 25%, halt all contracts and projects, stop all foreign aid and overseas campaigns. Close the boarders tight. Pay freezes, get us back to cash flow positive were we do not owe any Country a dime so that they can strong arm us into bailing them out.

Who in their right mind would want to be President?

 

[Show-me]

“When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” Ben Franklin

 

[Show-me]

Closer to home, a agriculture report sez farmers are cutting back on farm equipment purchases and they feel they will cut back on acres planted next year. Grain prices have fell hard and with the wet year many yields are down in this area.

 

[CountryBoy]

Morning CB,

Here is goes. We are doooomed! The credit markets have not begun to thaw out enough to make a difference to the "real" economy which is small businesses and the consumer.

Lay offs are accelerating which means more people without disposable income and people with spare cash are scared and sitting on it. By that I mean no durable goods purchases or crap we don't absolutely need.

I look at this as a type of thermal run away in a battery. Resistance breaks down from heat and current flows faster creating more heat, causing resistance to drop lower, causing more heat, causing more current, .................... melt down.

Banks have been saved by the government. Make no mistake the gov. will write what ever check is needed. BUT, that does not mean the bank are going to lend money to small businesses and the consumer at the rate they did or at all. They are in self preservation mode and they don't care about you, me, the economy, or political opinion. Self preservation!

Clark Howard, on the radio, said that American Express has put in place a program to weed out high risk card users. A bit late I would say. If you have their card and use it at Wal-Mart or other "red flag" retailers they shut your card down because they figure if you are shopping there and you have their card you are about at the end of your rope. The are also flagging Countrywide Mortgage customers.

The key to our economy bouncing back is simple, remember this we are a two thirds consumer driven economy. The consumer has been broke for a long time and the corporations kept feeding them credit like a crack whores. They took it and spent every dime on crap they wanted and not needed, now the scheme has come home to roost and there is no more credit to keep the ball rolling.

No jobs, no credit, no stimulus, no money, no buying crap that keeps the economy rolling.

This will take years to fix and the next President will likely be a one term President because they can not spend their way out of this one. They can blame Bush all they want but that argument will only last so long until someone like me pushes the argument that we have a Congress that should keep a "checks and balances". The are as much to blame and Bush.

The next President will have to make tough choices and not pander to the voters and buy votes with stimulus money and home loans. Cut, cut, cut spending to the core. Reduce government by 25%, halt all contracts and projects, stop all foreign aid and overseas campaigns. Close the boarders tight. Pay freezes, get us back to cash flow positive were we do not owe any Country a dime so that they can strong arm us into bailing them out.

Who in their right mind would want to be President?

CB,

That's what I've believed and have discussed with my wife, when we are out of earshot of our daughter. My daughter is well aware of what is going on, but I tell her, just to save all she can and things will take care of themselves. It's no use giving her a sour outlook on the future of our country. She graduates next year in Nursing and already has job offers and bonus's offers coming in, so she'll be fine. Now if I can just get her to stay near home so she can take care of her dad in his old age.

I'm an optimist, but I don't see anything good coming for the next 2 to 4 years and like you, I'm so sick and tired of the Bush bashers. Bush ahs pelnty of the blame, but this has been coming for decades and Greenspans easy money on the 90's just set it off like a rocket. Where is the oversite of Congress? If we don't Cut Spendinig drastically, but raise taxes, then we may very well fall into a depression. I'm tired of the finger pointing, don't we have any thinkers in this country left? Because we sure don't have any running for Prez.

Now you have a good day. :laugh:

CB

 

[Show-me]

That's it in a nut shell CB, we must raise taxes on everyone that lives here and makes a buck while cutting spending until we are cash flow positive.

You have a good day too.

 

[XL-entLady]

Do ya'll think we're near the bottom or further to fall?

CB

Mornin' CB,

I finished selling out of all equities this morning, because I think we have further to fall, so at this point it's good money after bad. And I'm tired of trying to surf a tsunami. :notrust:

I agree with your and Show-me's opinion that it's going to take hard painful choices to turn this thing around. Whoever the next president is, I hope he is a "one-term" because if he does make the painful choices he'll tick enough people off that he'll be voted back out of office in 4 years. If the next administration just starts immediately running for that second term by giving the people "bread and circuses" then we haven't seen ugly yet but we will.

How's that for a cheerful frame of mind on an early Thursday morning.

IMHO, right now it's all hands to the lifeboats, but I do know this sinking ship can be righted again. However it's going to take many months rather than days (I'm leaning to Malyla's timeframes) to get us steaming off into the sunset again.

Lady

 

[CountryBoy]

Morning Lady,

I've got about $400 until both our ROTH's are done for the year. We've got 9 stocks and all high yielders and good divvy payers, not saying that's a gurantee for the future, but the Divvies help. I'm just not sure what to do about next year. Since our ROTH accounts currently account for the smallest amount of cash for retirement, taking into account, TSP, SS and High 3, it's really not hurting that bad.

But still I'm debating what to do next year with the ROTH money. Maybe just hold the money for awhile, look at precious metals or buy stocks selectively or a little of all 3. Or maybe just build up a 6 month nest egg in the event of a total breakdown. At least I won't have to worry about any credit/mortgage bills, just the normal day to day ones we all have, food, power and gasoline.

I guess alot will depend on what's happening at the time and try to stay as nimble as possible.

CB

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

“When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.” Ben Franklin

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Both parties are guilty of this one. Wall Street bailout, welfare, or promises of tax cuts, we are all being bribed with our own money!

 

[Birchtree]

Show-me,

I bet Gardner Denver (GDI) hasn't closed its doors - it's a great buy at $22.23. I don't follow the gloom and doom crowd and just keep on buying.

 

[Show-me]

The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.
Alexis de Tocqueville

Both parties are guilty of this one. Wall Street bailout, welfare, or promises of tax cuts, we are all being bribed with our own money!

Excellent!

 

[Show-me]

Show-me,

I bet Gardner Denver (GDI) hasn't closed its doors - it's a great buy at $22.23. I don't follow the gloom and doom crowd and just keep on buying.

The CEO retired, he is a bastard but knew how to run a company.

 

[The HalfBreed]

Do ya'll think we're near the bottom or further to fall?

CB

Probably a little bit of both. Testing new lows for sure, however, I'm moving funds from the F fund into the C fund slowly, over the next 6 months or so, in 5K increments or so.
On my own, I've decided to purchase some GE stock "for entertainment purposes only", and I do believe FORD will not fold.....GM either, but they're burning thru cash moreso. FORD hit $2.00/share today, and I was inclined to buy more, maybe 500 shares, but I'll wait and see, I don't believe it'll go much lower, but, some of my other purchases of FORD were in the 3-5 range, so......:embarrest:

I'm taking a long range outlook on those two in particular, but I won't be buying much in the way of individual stocks after a few of these. I"ll stick with Mutual Funds for the most part....Can't wait till 2010 when the limits R off for ROTHS, or so I hear.

 

[Christopher]

AMEN. When the dust from the primaries settled, and the hope of electing a Governor was replaced with the reality of electing a Senator, I thought to myself "we're had" - out loud if I remember correctly. Unfortunately, my excitement disengaged at that juncture...

...don't we have any thinkers in this country left? Because we sure don't have any running for Prez.

 

[Show-me]

We're going to get killed today.

 

[CountryBoy]

Probably a little bit of both. Testing new lows for sure, however, I'm moving funds from the F fund into the C fund slowly, over the next 6 months or so, in 5K increments or so.
On my own, I've decided to purchase some GE stock "for entertainment purposes only", and I do believe FORD will not fold.....GM either, but they're burning thru cash moreso. FORD hit $2.00/share today, and I was inclined to buy more, maybe 500 shares, but I'll wait and see, I don't believe it'll go much lower, but, some of my other purchases of FORD were in the 3-5 range, so......:embarrest:

I'm taking a long range outlook on those two in particular, but I won't be buying much in the way of individual stocks after a few of these. I"ll stick with Mutual Funds for the most part....Can't wait till 2010 when the limits R off for ROTHS, or so I hear.

I'm not on Birch's level, but I'm still buying stock, for mine and my wifes ROTH's, just bought PCU, UTX and BP and will probably finish up this years ROTH limits with DUK and/or GE. I'm more aggressive with my ROTH's than my TSP. A lot of good deals out there and will just DCA if they go down.

CB

 

[Birchtree]

Any stock that pays a dividend will be reinvested for free every three months to buy more of the same stock.

 

[CountryBoy]

Any stock that pays a dividend will be reinvested for free every three months to buy more of the same stock.

That's all I purchase is dividend paying stocks and the longer the history of paying and annually increasing divvie the better.

CB

 

[James48843]

Auto Industry continues to get hammered:

[FONT=times new roman,times]C[/FONT][FONT=times new roman,times]hrysler announced today (Fri.) that it’s cutting 25-percent of its white-collar workforce. WDET’s Sarah Cwiek reports…[/FONT]
[FONT=times new roman,times]SOQ
[/FONT]
[FONT=times new roman,times] Chrysler Chairman and C-E-O Bob Nardelli announced the cuts in a letter to employees…saying the automaker will make the reductions through a mix of voluntary buyouts…retirement packages…and layoffs.

Nardelli says Chrysler is right-sizing during what he called an “unimaginable time” in the auto industry. Dave Cole is Chairman of the Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research. He says Chrysler is doing what’s necessary in light of dramatic sales declines:[/FONT]
[FONT=times new roman,times]
“I think they’re really doing what they have to do. What we have seen is a precipitous decline in sales…which meansthe revenue shortfall is enormous. And that’s really created a huge cash problem for the entire industry.”
[/FONT]
Cole says the move could also set the stage for a possible merger. Chrysler’s owner…Cerberus Capital Management…has reportedly been in preliminary talks with General Motors. This is Sarah Cwiek…WDET news.

 

[James48843]

Note:

I saw something this weekend that New Jersey's governor Jon Corzine was all up in arms about something like 18,700 job cuts in his state.

That's nothing.

Michigan has lost 315,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000, and continues to bleed jobs.

Let's hope the economy turns around soon- we need laws and leadership that will promote keeping American jobs here.

Report: Michigan lost 315K manufacturing jobs in 8 years

DETROIT -- (09/27/08)--A new report says Michigan has lost 315,200 manufacturing jobs during the last eight years -- a 35.5 percent reduction that represents the biggest percentage decline in the nation.



The American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition report released Friday says Michigan's total job loss of 489,900 during the same time period is more than three times worse than during the oil-induced Rust Belt downturn of 1974-82. Most of the pain has come in the auto-dependent manufacturing sector.


How the current state downturn compares with the Great Depression isn't known because there's no jobs data from that period.


Flint, Ann Arbor, Saginaw and the Detroit-Livonia metropolitan area suffered the biggest percentage declines in manufacturing job losses. The worst total job losses have occurred in Detroit-Livonia, Flint, Jackson and Saginaw.