More Pain to come

Morning CB,

Here is goes. We are doooomed! The credit markets have not begun to thaw out enough to make a difference to the "real" economy which is small businesses and the consumer.

Lay offs are accelerating which means more people without disposable income and people with spare cash are scared and sitting on it. By that I mean no durable goods purchases or crap we don't absolutely need.

I look at this as a type of thermal run away in a battery. Resistance breaks down from heat and current flows faster creating more heat, causing resistance to drop lower, causing more heat, causing more current, .................... melt down.

Banks have been saved by the government. Make no mistake the gov. will write what ever check is needed. BUT, that does not mean the bank are going to lend money to small businesses and the consumer at the rate they did or at all. They are in self preservation mode and they don't care about you, me, the economy, or political opinion. Self preservation!

Clark Howard, on the radio, said that American Express has put in place a program to weed out high risk card users. A bit late I would say. If you have their card and use it at Wal-Mart or other "red flag" retailers they shut your card down because they figure if you are shopping there and you have their card you are about at the end of your rope. The are also flagging Countrywide Mortgage customers.

The key to our economy bouncing back is simple, remember this we are a two thirds consumer driven economy. The consumer has been broke for a long time and the corporations kept feeding them credit like a crack whores. They took it and spent every dime on crap they wanted and not needed, now the scheme has come home to roost and there is no more credit to keep the ball rolling.

No jobs, no credit, no stimulus, no money, no buying crap that keeps the economy rolling.

This will take years to fix and the next President will likely be a one term President because they can not spend their way out of this one. They can blame Bush all they want but that argument will only last so long until someone like me pushes the argument that we have a Congress that should keep a "checks and balances". The are as much to blame and Bush.

The next President will have to make tough choices and not pander to the voters and buy votes with stimulus money and home loans. Cut, cut, cut spending to the core. Reduce government by 25%, halt all contracts and projects, stop all foreign aid and overseas campaigns. Close the boarders tight. Pay freezes, get us back to cash flow positive were we do not owe any Country a dime so that they can strong arm us into bailing them out.

Who in their right mind would want to be President?
 

CountryBoy

Well-known member
Good morning,

After reading the following 2 articles, it leads me to believe that we have more pain coming and that we're not near the bottom yet. We may have some bear rally's, but I'm still very cautious. If we're down again today and tomorrow, I may push some into the C Fund, it's risky, but I would've pushe in over Columbus day, but I didn't want to sit in the market on Tuesday also. I'm playing the odds. I should've jumped into the F fund when it got below 12, because it's been good to me when it hits that level, but I missed that opportunity due mainly to, well fear of losing what gains I have made this year, snall though they may be. I feel like I'm doing all my gambling on my ROTH's which have taken a beating, but I'm still buying as they fall.


http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...op+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+++analysis

Do ya'll think we're near the bottom or further to fall?:confused:

CB
 
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