mojo's Account Talk

[mojo]

Thanks momacs. Maybe we'll see the next big leg down after yesterdays pause. Or.....?

My gold took a hit yesterday. It sure did look like manipulation. Check out yesterday and today gold chart. Any opinions?

I'm on my phone so I can't post the link to
the Kitco live gold charts.

kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

I'm continuing to watch from the sidelines.

 

[momacs]

I don't know if you've seen this but here's a link to a Reinhardt thread from last year on google finance
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.983582/browse_thread/thread/aad550b590f931bf

 

[mojo]

Yes that was the best most accurate one.

 

[mojo]

"What I've come to conclude over the past few weeks is that we are not in a normal recession and most people do not recognize this. They think this is like the 1970's in which the market went sideways while there was a lot of inflation. Gold and commodities went up and so did some stocks during that time. People think the Fed is printing money and any rally could be the start of the next bull market simply because of that fact. Therefore they are desperate to look for new stocks to buy into or are just holding on to their losing positions long enough for them to go up again. No one is preparing for continuation of the bear market.

But I think this bear market is going to to be longer in duration and more severe than almost everyone expects. If I'm right though stocks will become so cheap that those that buy in when this bear market ends, probably sometime next year, will make a fortune. And those that learn how to trade market trends and short bear market rallies will make a ton of money this year before then.

This is a bit different than what I was thinking at the start of the year. I had never experienced the 1930 bear market or lived in Japan in the 1990's. My experience is the same experience of most Americans when it comes to the stock market - the past thirty years. I saw the last bear market and the last bull market. I was thinking we could see some base building and a recovery like we saw from the second half of 2002 through 2003 after the last bear market, because the stock market fell in half last year.

Just about everyone I know was thinking at the start of the year that the market fell so much in the Fall that it HAS to be the bottom or at least the start of a big rally. That and the fact that it wasn't a good time to short so I was looking for long opportunities led me to dabble for a few weeks on the long side and bet against the primary trend of the market. I quickly recognized the error in that thinking.

The reality of the economic data has made me come to conclude that this was just a temporary bout of overly optimistic thinking on my part. I think the market is going to go lower over the course of the this year and I'm ready for that. I'm ready to go short against the market the next time it has a 10-20% rally. I'm ready to make money in this market. I hear what the market is saying and I'm listening. Are you?"

Mike Swanson is Editor, Wallstreet Window www.wallstreetwindow.com



http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swanson022509.html

 

[mojo]

"Hi Nonsequitur

I have mentioned before that today is critical day for the bulls. If gold closes around 930 today or breaks below it the bull is sent to rest for a long time and we move back to 880's.

For now it is safe for bulls

Kingofgold"

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=11118&page=2428

 

[mojo]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/2/19/05524/5446/499/699191

But this was just the beginning. Having created and sold CDOs – and persuaded (well, bribed) the credit agencies into blessing them – Wall Street promptly began creating and selling CDOs that invested in other CDOs ("squared" CDOs) and CDOs that invested in CDOs that invested in other CDOs ("cubed" CDOs). Because even this didn’t deliver a big enough fix for the hard-core risk junkies (i.e. the hedge funds) the banks also created and sold "synthetic" CDOs, which, instead of investing in actual loans, wrote (sold) credit default swaps – insurance-like derivatives that promised to pay off if and when a company defaulted on its debts. This made it possible for synthetic CDOs to accept staggering amounts of credit exposure, and get paid for it, without putting down much, if any, cash – pushing their "notional" leverage ratios towards infinity.
What can you say? It was a hell of party – the bonfire to end all vanities. And yet, as mind-numbingly (if not mind-blowingly) complex as these credit structures were, and despite the even more esoteric mathematical models used to price them, the entire edifice rested on a set of relatively simple assumptions:
1.) Housing prices rarely go down, at least nationally.
2.) Default losses on large mortgage pools are not only low but relatively stable.
3.) People don’t walk away from their homes, even when they’re under water.
4.) Regional housing markets are largely uncorrelated.

.

 

[mojo]

Banks face new wave of losses on CDS contracts, analysts warn

• Elena Moya
• guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 24 February 2009 19.46 GMT
• Article history

Banks in Europe and the US face a new wave of losses linked to contracts issued to insure against companies going bust and defaulting on their loans, City analysts have warned



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/feb/24/cds-losses-warning

 

[budnipper1]

Absolutely NOTHING surprises me anymore since BHO took the reigns. Changing the Dow seems like pocket change compared to threats of nationalizing banks and government take over of the health care system.

Just curious. Wonder how many here own shares of Berkshire Hathaway, @ $76k a share? (I don't) I'd like to hear Warren's opinion about some of this crap.

View attachment 5856
​

Warren and other big names are not going to criticize anything Obama or his administration propose at the moment. See how Crist and Arnold talked today.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -
Warren Buffett has some explaining to do.

Berkshire's shares have lost close to half their value since December 2007. Investment losses have piled up as stock markets tumble. And tens of billions of dollars are at risk on derivative contracts that depend on stocks rising. For now, they are not.

All this makes Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, to be released on Saturday, one of the most eagerly awaited in the career of the 78-year-old billionaire, the second-richest American according to Forbes magazine.

"It will be interesting to see if Buffett himself has learned lessons he might not have learned in his long career," said Bill Bergman, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar Inc and former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Buffett is likely to expound on the global economic turmoil and the foibles -- or worse -- of the copiously paid bankers, hedge fund managers and traders who helped create it...


- read the rest of the article here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51P4QC20090226

Buffett prefers to release the annual report and shareholder letter on Saturdays, when markets are closed and investors can digest his thoughts slowly and in peace.

"Buffett is one of the few CEOs who is candid rather than marketing-oriented in his letters," Yoshikami said.

"He admits when he is wrong. You don't get that candor from other CEOs. That's why his credibility is so high."
​

 

[mojo]

Where is the Texas/Saudi Oil money in that flow chart? Lets contrast this with the Bush campaign money trail - just for giggles.

Your welcome to do that here malyla. I'm no Bush fan either. I'm an equal opportunity basher. I'm happy to point out lies and corruption wherever I find them. I don't have much interest in kicking a dead horse though.

 

[budnipper1]

And while we're still giggling, let's compare inauguration costs too.:laugh:
What Recession? The $170 Million Inauguration


Obama's Inauguration Has Been Financed Partially by Bailed-Out Wall Street Executives



Billionaire investor George Soros and his family contributed $250,000 to the inauguration, and Google co-founder Larry Page and CEO Eric Schmidt each donated $25,000.

Other big-name donors who gave $50,000 include filmmaker George Lucas, artist Dale Chihuly, Los Angeles Dodgers President Jamie McCourt. Citigroup managing director Raymond J. McGuire; Oracle President Charles E. Phillips Jr.; actresses Halle Berry and Sharon Stone; and Melvin Simon, co-founder of Simon Property Group, the largest mall owner in the United States.
http://abcnews.go.com/business/inauguration/Story?id=6665946&page=2


Inauguration cost D.C. $48.5M
The District spent $48.5 million on logistics and security while hosting the inauguration festivities for President Barack Obama and faces a $33 million shortfall it is hoping the federal government will fill.

Speaking at a D.C. Council hearing Thursday, City Administrator Dan Tangherlini, Mayor Adrian Fenty’s point person for the inauguration, gave a rundown of the final expenses tallied in accommodating about 2.5 million people over a five-day period in January.

The spending included $15.6 million in overtime and holiday personnel costs, $15 million for services and commodities, $4.6 million to transport and lodge police from neighboring jurisdictions, $4.1 million to build parade viewing stands, $3.6 million for 1,000 new radios, $2.9 million in fire and emergency management resources and 1.9 million to repave Pennsylvania Avenue NW.

Despite the crowds, including an estimated 1.8 million people on the Mall at one time for Obama’s swearing-in, the city found that crime, arrests and calls to the police were all down from a normal week, said Police Chief Cathy Lanier. Bars and restaurants that stayed open until the early morning reported no incidents, she said.

D.C. has already received $15 million from the federal government for its efforts, but that still leaves the city $33 million short.

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2009/02/09/daily79.html?q=obama's%20inauguration%20costs

 

[mojo]

Ron Paul Discusses Slide Towards Global Governance on Glenn Beck's Show


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_sCQk5s3sw&feature=related

 

[mojo]

Painting: Alex Grey


Poster Credit: Ray Noland ("CRO")

Obama at fund-raiser at Steven and Judy Gluckstern's home, April 9, 2007. George Soros is seated to the right of the stairs. (Published in "How Barack Obama Struck Fund-Raising Gold, New York Magazine April 16, 2007; Photo-credit: Michael Edwards (note that this is the actual photo as published by New York Magazine, and contrary to the claim of William Lowther @ Telegraph, has not been doctored by this blog; (via "Daily Speculations" | What is the "Transfiguration"?)



http://obamamessiah.blogspot.com/

 

[mojo]

What's with all this messianic Obama imagery?

 

[Warrenlm]

" What's with all this messianic Obama imagery? "

It is responding to a market. It is quite amazing at how many desperate people there are in this country. There have been other periods in human history that are similar and most are alarming.

 

[mojo]

Well with 741 breached how low do we go? I feel some capitulation coming on.

 

[mojo]

930 gold held yesterday so up we go for a bit.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

 

[mojo]

http://www.ft.com/markets/wealth/gold

 

[mojo]

U.S. Economy Shrank 6.2% in Fourth Quarter, Most Since 1982

The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter at an even faster pace than previously estimated as consumer spending plunged, companies cut inventories and exports sank.

Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, more than economists anticipated and the most since 1982, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, declined at the fastest pace in almost three decades.

The recession is forecast to persist at least through the first half of this year as job losses mount and purchases plummet. The Obama administration's attempts to break the grip of the worst financial crisis in 70 years are unlikely to bring immediate relief as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aH1jAXX4xlIM&refer=home

Euro Area Risks Breakup on Bank Woes, Subprime Bear Hayman Says

Hayman Advisors LP, the firm that earned $500 million betting on the U.S. subprime mortgage-market collapse, says Europe’s monetary union is about to fall apart.

Richard Howard, a managing director for global markets at Dallas-based Hayman, said Germany may opt to shore up its own economy, Europe’s biggest, rather than bail out fellow euro nations such as Austria, Italy and Spain as their banks sag under the weight of bad debts. That might lead to defaults and compel Germany to renounce the euro, he said.

“People said subprime could never blow up but it did and now they’re saying the exact same thing about the eurozone,” said Howard. “There’s no stopping what is now a downward spiral.” He declined to discuss his investments.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2JbfmRZSr7A&refer=home
​

 

[mojo]

http://www.propublica.org/article/corruption-touched-cias-covert-operations

 

[mojo]

Markets continued to swing unpredictably on Thursday, ending lower as health insurers and drug makers sank sharply after the Obama administration unveiled sweeping plans for healthcare reform.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123564926423781501.html?mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1&