mlk_man's account talk

[mlk_man]

Didn't say local currency. I'm just saying the I fund should be up today .32% without taking into account the strength of the dollar. The dollar is up strongly from noon yesterday to noon today at +.38%. It's not usually this strong so I doubt it affects the I fund that much on a day to day basis. However, it might today.

I'm not sure how they apply the strength of the dollar to the I fund. It could be anywhere from $18.49 to $18.56. AFter today I should be able to determine how much the dollar affects it.

 

[mlk_man]

When I say "I fund", I guess I should say EAFE..............

 

[Wheels]

Didn't say local currency.

Well, in effect you did say local currency. If you are talking about the I fund BEFORE taking in the effect of the dollar, then you are talking about local currency. But you still didn't say where you came up with the .32%.

Dave
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[mlk_man]

Read Dave, read.............

 

[Wheels]

I guess I can infer that you are simply not going to say. Kind of like the Technician when he tells us he has just gone over some new data but never says what the data is.

Dave
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[mlk_man]

I guess I can infer that you are simply not going to say. Kind of like the Technician when he tells us he has just gone over some new data but never says what the data is.

Dave
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Dave, what's up with you?

 

[mlk_man]

Couldn't find the post. Basically I look at the EFA from noon one day to noon the next day to see what I think the I fund may end up. At noon yesterday it sat at 62.29. Let's see where it sits at noon today.

SP, the dollar index from noon on Wed to noon on Thurs was pretty flat. This may be why there was no dollar adjustment yesterday. It sat about 90.65 at noon yesterday. Currently I have it being up about .22% from that time.

M_M

To those that can't or won't read, is there something I'm missing about explaining my reasons for why I thought the I fund might end up where it did? To be called one of those guys that don't explain themselves really ..........ah, nevermind.

 

[mlk_man]

Mr. Wheels, I apologize, I had to leave earlier..........

 

[mlk_man]

Didn't say local currency. I'm just saying the I fund should be up today .32% without taking into account the strength of the dollar. The dollar is up strongly from noon yesterday to noon today at +.38%. It's not usually this strong so I doubt it affects the I fund that much on a day to day basis. However, it might today.

I'm not sure how they apply the strength of the dollar to the I fund. It could be anywhere from $18.49 to $18.56. AFter today I should be able to determine how much the dollar affects it.

Looks like the EAFE subtracts the strength of the dollar from the EFA. The dollar index I follow, doesn't give timely updates so........

Guess we'll see going forward. If anyone else wants to fill us in on a daily basis, please do. I don't really have time to do Greg's auntie's work. Mainly because, does it really matter?

I can't believe Dave associated me with the Tech.........


BTW, Ed your welcome...........you should know Sarah would delete your post. I bet Greggy won't post his aunt's thoughts anymore either.....

 

[Wheels]

Read Dave, read

Ahhh, as in read the thread. Duh! I just found it now.

I'm pretty sure this methodology is flawed. The EFA has little predictive value even when you look at it during the correct time frames. (Today's EFA, before the dollar, was .669%, roughly 100% off from your estimate). The EFA is often reacting to the previous day's EAFE result. Today is a perfect example. The EFA jumped because the EAFE was up so high yesterday but the EFA hadn't moved that much. It had to try to catch up.

Now as far as the dollars effect, looking from 12:30 pm to 12:30 pm is the correct way to go. And as far as measuring the dollar's effect, looking at the chart on the MSCI page each day sometimes shows us some extreme differences. Again today is a great example. Look at the Far East row. Local currency = .282% but adjusted for the dolaar - down to a negative .87%. Ouch

Dave
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[Wheels]

I don't really have time to do Greg's auntie's work.

I never bothered to ask Greg his method.

a. I just assumed he was guessing.
b. He was never right.
c. I just assumed he would lie about it.

Guess I don't think too much of Greg.

Dave
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[mlk_man]

I don't know if my reasoning/ method is right on either. It's been on two days in a row now, so guess we'll see. Gives me something else to follow I reckon........I think tomorrow the I fund will be up 0%.....

You all know this cutting into my social life right? Instead of a mirror over my bed, I now have a market ticker.............:nuts:

 

[Wheels]

I don't know if my reasoning/ method is right on either. It's been on two days in a row now, so guess we'll see.

??????? Which 2 days? Not Friday, it wasn't even close.

I agree on tomorrow though 0 cents AND no FV

Dave
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[mlk_man]

Okay, you're right................................

 

[Wheels]

Dude - 3:48 am I'm at work. What's your excuse?

Dave
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[mlk_man]

Trying to figure out the I fund........

BTW, for the record, I said yesterday that the EFAE should be up .32% but that the dollar was up stronger than usual at .38% and I didn't know how much this would cause that value to come down. I gave a range for the I fund of $18.49 to $18.56 depending on how much of the strength in dollar they subtracted from the actual value. Apparentlly they subtract it all. .32% minus .38% equals -.06%. $18.50 minus .06% is $18.49. This is within a penny of what the actual value of the I fund ended up. I"m content with being within a penny for two reasons:

1. I want to post what I "think" the I fund might be up by 11:45 am so if this happens to help someone, they have time to submit an IFT. So, this means that the values I"m using for the EFA at the time are from 11:25am because of the 20 minute delay. The values could change between then and noon and most likely will.

2. The site that I get the values for the dollar does not give a time for the values they post. Yesterday the price they showed stayed the same for over 3 hours. I doubt the value of the dollar stayed the same for that long so I doubt the values I use are actual.

As you can see, there's not really anyway to be exact. Will this method hold true going forward? Don't know, but I will track it for a couple weeks and see.

Now all this changes on those "adjustment" days, which is why I don't like the I fund.

And that's all I have to say about that............

Think I'll take a nap now.

Good luck,

M_M

 

[Wheels]

The figure that I was challenging, albeit less pleasantly than I should have (but again it was 3:00 am) was the .32% before the effect of the dollar. Yesterday the EAFE closed up .669% before the dollar.


Dave
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[mlk_man]

Hi all, I'll no longer be moderating and/or doing the tracker. Too much "work".........

Wanted you all to hear it from me first.

 

[tsptalk]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=39672#post39672

 

[ocean]

Hi all, I'll no longer be moderating and/or doing the tracker. Too much "work".........

M_M

Thanks for your hard work. Hope you don't stop posting your moves.

Thanks TSPTalk (Tom) for your dedication on this board. As the memberships growth, I don't know how much resources you can have to monitor and track the record. May be you should consider some fees down the road. Just my thought ..

Ocean