mlk_man's account talk

[mlk_man]

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No move today. I want to make sure I get that penny. Most likely it'll be today, but one never really knows. May be time to take a look at bonds again. The F fund is getting close to it's low over the past couple months and just recently went below it's 50-day MA.

I'll be looking for a down day in it to buy, unless of course I get a signal to buy stocks again. If it keeps dropping as fast as it has, it may hit China before it comes back up. :shock:

Good luck, looks like the"I" may break about even today. There's always that "correction" to worry about though.

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

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smine wrote:

Fib Timer has this strategy this week. Of course, they "fibbed" last time they predicted the week, remember MM?






[align=left]For Sunday, October 2, 2005 [/align]

Current Strategy Positions
FibTimer currently has 11 successful timing strategies

Aggressive S&P Position - BULLISH

Aggressive Nasdaq Position - BULLISH

Aggressive GOLD Position - BULLISH [/b]

Aggressive BOND Position - BEARISH

Aggress. SMALLCAP Position - BULLISH

Conservative S&P Position - BULLISH[/b]

Conservative REIT Position - BULLISH[/b]

U.S. Dollar Timer Position - BULLISH

I starting to wonder if we should do the opposite of what they say? :%

 

[mlk_man]

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mlk_man wrote:

Well after contemplating the negatives and accentuating the positives, I've decided to stick with my original plan for now. My thinking is that if we can get another leg up today, even a slight one, the dumb money will see this week as a rally and jump in on Monday and Tuesday. Then the big boys will say "gotcha" and dump the rest of the week. Of course the bottom could drop out from here or we could skyrocket to the moon. This is why I still have my day job............:^

I will be putting some into the "I" fund just for GP. Mainly just to jinx Rolo..........

Good luck all,

M_M

Hmmm, I haven't been bashed all day, go figure.

We are at an interesting point right now. I have a weak signal to jump back in the S fund based on past performance. With the quick drop we have had, I can see a "whip saw" forming though. I'll probably wait for a definitive signal to jump back in. I think patience is a virtue at this point. Bonds are giving a weak buy signal also.......At this point, I might pick bonds with the average investor seeing what has happened the past couple of days and looking to put their money in a safer place. Of course, that 14% short by institutional money is still in the back of my mind and tells me they "need" the market to go up. Some see Friday as a bad day because of the reports coming out. Do the big boys see this as a buying opp?

Of course if you're reading this, you're probably better off reading that last page of my thread which is blank. Right rolo?

Good luck all,

M_M

 

[Rolo]

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mlk_man wrote:

Guess it beats taking up two websites such as yourself. Eh rollie pollie? :l

Yeah...I need two websites becuase of MY GAINS (but you wouldn't know what that is like, now would you?)

Perhaps you should hit yo mama up for a quarter and double your money...

 

[mlk_man]

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Rolo wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

Guess it beats taking up two websites such as yourself. Eh rollie pollie? :l

Yeah...I need two websites becuase of MY GAINS (but you wouldn't know what that is like, now would you?)

Perhaps you should hit yo mama up for a quarter and double your money...

Perhaps..............

 

[smine]

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Fib Timer needs to change it's name to "Down-Right Lie" Timer or perhaps "We Don't Have A Clue" TimerLOL. I feel fortunate to only have lost a little bit this week! TSP site is down tonight; unable to connect for some reason. Here's to tomorrow.

 

[Rolo]

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So why do you follow somebody who sucks?

 

[smine]

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Well, I don't really follow them. I just find it interesting that they can state with such emphasis that this week is bullish when we see it isn't. If I really believed that I would have invested 100% in C or S instead of the small amount I did in hopes of a good week.

 

[Birchtree]

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Smine,

Fib Timer set the strategy for the week - there are two more trading days to go.

The bottom may be placed tomorrow intraday - and then the oversold rally may begin. I actually like it when you post their strategy - even if they might be wrong.

Dennis

 

[smine]

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Happy to do it! Maybe MM is right; take the opposite view.

 

[mlk_man]

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smine wrote:

Fib Timer needs to change it's name to "Down-Right Lie" Timer

LOL, I think that is a fitting moniker. I have to be honest, when I first started my individual investment account early last year, I subscribed to a bunch of these people. Found out pretty quickly that they were making money from subscribers and not from investing.

I know, I know, if they were making money investing, why would they spend their timetelling others how to? What can I say, I use totrust people.........

 

[Rolo]

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You can use it to learn from other's mistakes...."Why did they think that and why didn't it pan out?" (they could have been flawed or...things just aren't 100% predictible 100% of the time)

I'm a firm believer in saturating yourself in other's strategies, outlooks, commentaries, etc. to see what leaps out at you. Chimeric.

 

[mlk_man]

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Doesn't look like a good day to be in the I fund:

FTSE 100
-63.00
-1.16%
5,364.80

XETRA-DAX
-76.05
-1.50%
4,993.37

CAC 40
-62.92
-1.37%
4,531.19

HANG SENG
-321.73
-2.12%
14,839.30

NIKKEI 225
-330.38
-2.41%
13,359.51

U.S. Dollar vs Euro
+0.0047
+0.39%
1.2057


U.S. Dollar vs Yen
+0.1700
+0.15%
0.0088


U.S. Dollar vs UK £
+0.00
+0.15%
1.77

 

[mlk_man]

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I've pretty much decided to buy the fear going into tomorrow with all the supposed bad jobs reports etc. coming out. Trying to think like a big money guy! :^

Now I'm trying to figure out how much to risk and in which fund and or funds........:*

 

[mlk_man]

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BTW, we have Monday off. Is the market open still? SOmething else to think about today if it is....................

 

[mlk_man]

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My "bounce back from here or all bets are off" for the S fund is $15.30. We are getting close. Not sure how things will end today so I'll put 50% in the S fund and 50% in the F. I'll look to buy more of the S either tomorrow or Tues.

Good luck,

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

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BTW, we should get the penny today.

 

[mlk_man]

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Almost too perfect.........I was a bit concerned when I saw the Wilshire drop as much as it did. NIce to see it come back up to my support level at the end. Tomorrow is a big day............if the market is down, Icrawl inmy hole like a bear. If it's up, I'll put my 50% F into the I fund because of the holiday. Maybe.......:^

Good luck all,

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

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Well, so far so good. Futures are up this morning. :^

I'm still a bit leery of a possible whip-saw. Most likely we'll see some volitility next week so I might jump in and out selling strength and buying weakness. Ideally I would jump out of the Stoday and back in on Monday. Can't do that though.

Now the question is, do I trust the "I" fund for 2 days. I'm a bit concerned about the divergence between the EFA and the dollar lately. Typically when one is up the other is down. If you take a look at this chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=efa

you'll see that the dollar and the EFA are normally mirror images of each other. You can change the chart to longer periods if you like. Looking at the most recent pattern you'll see both the dollar and the EFA have dropped simultaneously. Now does the dollar continue to drop? Does the EFA follow us up on Monday? Do they both continue down?

This is all assuming of course that the US markets are up today as I suspect. The lastest terror threat could possibly play on people's heads though. Driving into work this morning I noticed someone on the beltway driving as if they weren't use to doing it. You know, not getting too close to the person in front, driving slow in the middle lane, riding the brake. My first thought was "oh great, either an amateur driver or an elderly person". But just then the news about NY came on the radio and my next thought was "hmmm, I wonder if this person is just driving overly cautious trying not to be noticed". Well, something told me to jot down the tag number so I did. Yes, I'm one of those "multi-tasking" drivers. Anyway, now my curiosity was up and my off ramp was coming up so I speed up in the right lane to take a gander at this person. Hmmmm, 30 something male of middle eastern descent, probably 5'6" to 5'8", 170 lbs (or was that something else under that coat),full beard, and looking quite nervous. Hey, the road signs say be on the look out for suspicious activity right?

Anyway, the terroist threat is on people's minds is all I'm trying to say.

Most likely I'll be going 50% S and 50% I from my current 50% F, 50% S. I think the I fund is due a bounce and unlike some, I think the S now has the most to gain. Four days sitting in the"I" though, It's gonna be a lonnnnnnnngggggggggg weekend for me..........:shock:

Good luck and have a nice weekend. I'll post my move later .

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

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One other thing to consider. The FOMC minutes come out Tuesday. THe last time they came out, Aug. 30th, all the funds were down slightly. The next day they went back up and continued up. If the funds are up nicely today and you choose to wait for a lower day, Tuesday may be the day to do it.

Good luck,

M_M