9/06/12
Stocks struggled to find direction yesterday and ended the day mostly flat with a second day of mixed results in the indices. The Dow gained 12-points while the S&P, Nasdaq, and small caps were down slightly.
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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
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[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.04%
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.08%
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.06%
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.12%
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The S&P 500 has changed little in the last few days. It seems to be hanging just above 1400 while seeing slightly lower highs. Again, this is a consolidation likely to break sharply one way or the other very soon. The jobs report is tomorrow and it seems like every time I say it will be a catalyst, the move comes the day before so watch for some possible posturing today, to front run the report.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transports continue to concern me and yesterday's breakdown magnified that concern. Will this be one of those apex fake-outs or is this a real breakdown? For the S&P 500's sake, let's hope it is a fake-out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps pulled back slightly yesterday, but not enough to take it back below the resistance line on the Russell 2000 near 820. This is a nice looking cup and handle formation - which tend to break to the upside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There is also a nice inverted head and shoulders pattern hiding in there (blue). The neckline is declining and it looks like there was already a breakout and a healthy pull back that successfully tested the neckline. This looks pretty good and that makes the action in the Transportation Index puzzling.
I showed the Semiconductor Index the other day as a possible tell for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. The bull flag is still forming and the strong support is still holding. It will be interesting to see if this can do what a bull flag should do at support, which is hold and break to the upside.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Tomorrow is the jobs report and the closer we get to the election, the more important they become. There are only 2 more jobs reports, after this one, before the election.
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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