I wrote "February's Historical Performance" blog last week and have not posted it because some of this analysis is dependent on January's close.
In last weekend's blog...
"I don't want to underscore the importance of this last week. "So goes January, so goes the year" and we have strong statistical evidence to back up that statement. My personal belief is that we will close both the week and the month up, it is a must! Over the past 64 Januaries 61% or 39 of 64 closed up, if we were to close the month down, the statistics for an end of year positive close drop substantially."
"Having said all that, I'll happily take a flat slightly positive close, because at the very least this will give us some unanswered questions and that is exactly what the markets like to do best…"
Thus far for 2015, we are -1.83% Year to Date.
From 1950-2014 there are 5,036 trading days
Of those 5,036 trading days, 240 closed greater than or = to 1.83%
From this perspective, this means there is a 4.72% chance we will close the month of January up…
___
Note: Below, are YTD perspectives written over daily gain stats.
Looking at those 5,036 days, 263 have closed down -1.83% or less, and the next day's gains show a substantial 58% winning ratio with positive average gains of 1.18% (negative average gains of -.98%) and average gains of .27%
But, of those 263 days, only 39 closed greater than or = to 1.83% which means (from this perspective) there is a 14.82% chance we will close the month breaking even…
Trade hard…Jason
In last weekend's blog...
"I don't want to underscore the importance of this last week. "So goes January, so goes the year" and we have strong statistical evidence to back up that statement. My personal belief is that we will close both the week and the month up, it is a must! Over the past 64 Januaries 61% or 39 of 64 closed up, if we were to close the month down, the statistics for an end of year positive close drop substantially."
"Having said all that, I'll happily take a flat slightly positive close, because at the very least this will give us some unanswered questions and that is exactly what the markets like to do best…"
Thus far for 2015, we are -1.83% Year to Date.
From 1950-2014 there are 5,036 trading days
Of those 5,036 trading days, 240 closed greater than or = to 1.83%
From this perspective, this means there is a 4.72% chance we will close the month of January up…
___
Note: Below, are YTD perspectives written over daily gain stats.
Looking at those 5,036 days, 263 have closed down -1.83% or less, and the next day's gains show a substantial 58% winning ratio with positive average gains of 1.18% (negative average gains of -.98%) and average gains of .27%
But, of those 263 days, only 39 closed greater than or = to 1.83% which means (from this perspective) there is a 14.82% chance we will close the month breaking even…
Trade hard…Jason
