Migration to the I-fund

[TommyIV]

Over the past couple of weeks, the I-fund has delivered gains while the C- and S-funds have declined. In the Last Look Report, we’ve consistently watched IFTs being put to use as AutoTracker members add I-fund exposure to their TSPs.

From January 16 through yesterday, the I-fund is up 2.54%, while the C- and S-funds are down 0.29% and 2.81%, respectively.

During that stretch, 124 non-Premium AutoTracker members have made at least one IFT. Of that group, 75 increased their I-fund exposure, lifting the group’s average I-fund allocation by 27.6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, allocations to each of the other TSP funds declined on average among these 124 members. The largest reduction came from the G-fund, where allocations fell by an average of 11.2 percentage points.

It's wisely pointed out that past success does not equate to future success. But the once overlooked emerging markets fund is getting harder and harder to ignore.

 

[JPH543]

My observations for the new 2025 I fund is that it just seems to have less volatility which can be favorable even ignoring the fact that it had a amazing year last year. Its just a unique fund that can do its own thing when the others disagree. There are additional considerations of course being an international fund but its like the I fund is finally a viable buy and hold long term investment as it covers so many bases large, mid and small caps and so many companies around the world. I will admit it is a little more tricky to time and high/low compared to the other funds from what I am a seeing. It's value and market adjustments make it more challenging to get a crazy dip buy swing for example. Overall its seems to be a really appealing fund right now where as the old I fund was never really like that.

 

[TommyIV]

This WSJ article suggests this move to investments outside of U.S. indices is a broader truth for investors, not just within our TSP community:

Wall Street’s Hunt for Cheaper Stocks Goes Global​

 

[tsptalk]

This WSJ article suggests this move to investments outside of U.S. indices is a broader truth for investors, not just within our TSP community:

Wall Street’s Hunt for Cheaper Stocks Goes Global​

I wonder if this will turn out to be a contrarian indicator for the I-fund?

 

[James48843]

It means people understand the dollar is getting weaker around the world, and it will take diversification outside the USA in order to get decent returns.

 

[TommyIV]

ACWX took a 1.65% price cut today. We'll see later what that exactly translates to for the I-fund. But I wondered how this initial trading day following the Iran conflict influenced TSP Talk investors.

It was a busy day. 35 non-premium AutoTracker members were quick to use their first IFTs of March. The S&P 500 (C-fund) and DWCPF (S-fund) were down sharply at the open but both bounced back and ended the day in positive territory.

ACWX (I-fund) however, remained stuck in the mud after the open.

Overall, the action led to a majority of the IFTs being used to decrease stock exposure and increase G-fund shares. Of the 35, 20 members increased their G-fund allocation by some degree today.

When it came to the I-fund though, the balance of inflows and outflows was a bit more balanced than expected. Of all 35 IFTs, 27 involved moves with the I-fund:

• 14 members reduced I-fund exposure, reacting to weekend turmoil.
• 13 members added to I-fund positions, viewing the selloff as a discount.

The average change of I-fund allocation among all 35 members was a mere -1.4 percentage points.

Get tomorrow’s Last Look Report to see which side gains momentum next.

 

[JPH543]

Almost 50/50 today for the I, interesting to see the two trains of thought, risk mitigation for some, and opportunity to buy for others.

 

[TommyIV]

The name of this thread does not apply to this week. Instead, this post will be called Migration from the I-fund.

We're about finished with our fourth day of IFTs this week, so I'm taking a quick snapshot to give us an idea of jour communities latest adjustments to their I-fund allocations.

I will be looking at the IFTs made over the last four days, excluding from AutoTracker members who are subscribers to TSP Talk Plus, Intrepid_Timer, or RevShark's TSP Timing.

Since the IFT deadline on February 27, 87 AutoTracker members have made interfund transfers. Here is how those moves affected I-fund allocations:

Change in I-fund Allocation



Clearly there has been an exodus from the I-fund, although a smaller group of investors has been stepping in to buy the damaged fund.

Across all 87 IFTs, the average move included a 27.7 percentage-point decrease in I-fund exposure. Meanwhile, the C-fund saw an average 1.0 percentage-point decline, and the S-fund saw an average 2.7 percentage-point decline.

Of the 87 IFTs, 51 increased G-fund allocations, with an average increase of 32.3 percentage points per IFT.

TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings

The Last Look Report​

 

[TommyIV]

Yesterday's morning rally in the I-fund benchmark ACWX sparked a shift in I-fund migration.

On Friday (3/6) and Monday (3/9), non-premium AutoTracker members were reducing I-fund exposure, reinforcing the broader trend of an I-fund exodus we noticed last week. Over those two days, 34 members used IFTs, and 15 were spent cutting I-fund allocations. Across all 34 moves, the average IFT reduced I-fund exposure by 19.6 percentage points.

By Tuesday morning (3/10), ACWX was up more than 1% ahead of the IFT deadline, and the migration reversed. Suddenly there was a rush to the I-fund. Twenty-one members made IFTs Tuesday and 14 were used to increase I-fund shares. That includes nine members who made the aggressive shift from 100% G to 100% I-fund. Of all 21 IFTs, the average I-fund allocation was lifted 45.5 percentage points.

Stay up to date with the latest IFT trends and AutoTracker leaders with TSP Talk’s Last Look Report—your daily look at market action and member positioning before each IFT deadline.

​

 

[TommyIV]

The average I-fund allocation across all active non-premium AutoTracker members is 17.6% today. The average was 11.6% at the beginning of the year.

That six-percentage-point increase may not sound dramatic at first glance, but across more than 600 members it represents a meaningful shift in exposure.

For perspective, the average would rise by less than 0.2 percentage points if a single member moved from 0% to 100% I-fund. In other words, the move we’ve seen this year reflects broad participation, not just a handful of investors making large reallocations.

To give the observation more context, I built an index chart comparing the daily change in the average I-fund allocation with the daily price change of the I-fund so far this year.



Interestingly, the average I-fund allocation dipped below its New Year starting point during January, but as the I-fund price climb became seemingly relentless and TSP investors could no longer ignore it anymore while the C and S-fund underperformed.

The average I-fund allocation reached a peak of 20.1% on February 27th, a day after the I-fund set its highest price of 2026 yet.

Once the March sell-off began, some members were quick to reduce their exposure. But some members saw another buying opportunity after some success in the Tuesday trading session.

But this visual also tells me there is still conviction for the I-fund investment among our community. The argument that the Iran conflict could be short-term has left some not wanting to exit too early and miss the rebound.

Let me know if you want to see similar comparisons with other TSP fund averages among the AutoTracker.