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McDuck's Account Talk
- Thread starter McDuck
- Start date
- Status
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
Thanks. The LMBF Method had me in the G-fund for most of the month which caused me to avoid the meltdown. Then on the 20th I thought getting back in a stock fund was a no-brainer.
Thanks. The LMBF Method had me in the G-fund for most of the month which caused me to avoid the meltdown. Then on the 20th I thought getting back in a stock fund was a no-brainer.
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
Yes, I went 100%F yesterday COB.
By the way, my return last month was 90% luck. So do not follow me blindly.
Yes, I went 100%F yesterday COB.
By the way, my return last month was 90% luck. So do not follow me blindly.
justbizness45
Member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
I like what Peter says. A lot of Americans are starting to listen to him, unfortunately none of them are in the Senate or the House of Representatives.:suspicious:
I like what Peter says. A lot of Americans are starting to listen to him, unfortunately none of them are in the Senate or the House of Representatives.:suspicious:
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html
While Detroit Slept
December 10, 2008
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Op-Ed Columnist
As I think about our bailing out Detroit, I can’t help but reflect on what, in my view, is the most important rule of business in today’s integrated and digitized global market, where knowledge and innovation tools are so widely distributed. It’s this: Whatever can be done, will be done. The only question is will it be done by you or to you. Just don’t think it won’t be done. If you have an idea in Detroit or Tennessee, promise me that you’ll pursue it, because someone in Denmark or Tel Aviv will do so a second later.
Why do I bring this up? Because someone in the mobility business in Denmark and Tel Aviv is already developing a real-world alternative to Detroit’s business model. I don’t know if this alternative to gasoline-powered cars will work, but I do know that it can be done — and Detroit isn’t doing it. And therefore it will be done, and eventually, I bet, it will be done profitably.
And when it is, our bailout of Detroit will be remembered as the equivalent of pouring billions of dollars of taxpayer money into the mail-order-catalogue business on the eve of the birth of eBay. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into the CD music business on the eve of the birth of the iPod and iTunes. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into a book-store chain on the eve of the birth of Amazon.com and the Kindle. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into improving typewriters on the eve of the birth of the PC and the Internet.
What business model am I talking about? It is Shai Agassi’s electric car network company, called Better Place. Just last week, the company, based in Palo Alto, Calif., announced a partnership with the state of Hawaii to road test its business plan there after already inking similar deals with Israel, Australia, the San Francisco Bay area and, yes, Denmark.
The Better Place electric car charging system involves generating electrons from as much renewable energy — such as wind and solar — as possible and then feeding those clean electrons into a national electric car charging infrastructure. This consists of electricity charging spots with plug-in outlets — the first pilots were opened in Israel this week — plus battery-exchange stations all over the respective country. The whole system is then coordinated by a service control center that integrates and does the billing.
Under the Better Place model, consumers can either buy or lease an electric car from the French automaker Renault or Japanese companies like Nissan (General Motors snubbed Agassi) and then buy miles on their electric car batteries from Better Place the way you now buy an Apple cellphone and the minutes from AT&T. That way Better Place, or any car company that partners with it, benefits from each mile you drive. G.M. sells cars. Better Place is selling mobility miles.
The first Renault and Nissan electric cars are scheduled to hit Denmark and Israel in 2011, when the whole system should be up and running. On Tuesday, Japan’s Ministry of Environment invited Better Place to join the first government-led electric car project along with Honda, Mitsubishi and Subaru. Better Place was the only foreign company invited to participate, working with Japan’s leading auto companies, to build a battery swap station for electric cars in Yokohama, the Detroit of Japan.
What I find exciting about Better Place is that it is building a car company off the new industrial platform of the 21st century, not the one from the 20th — the exact same way that Steve Jobs did to overturn the music business. What did Apple understand first? One, that today’s technology platform would allow anyone with a computer to record music. Two, that the Internet and MP3 players would allow anyone to transfer music in digital form to anyone else. You wouldn’t need CDs or record companies anymore. Apple simply took all those innovations and integrated them into a single music-generating, purchasing and listening system that completely disrupted the music business.
What Agassi, the founder of Better Place, is saying is that there is a new way to generate mobility, not just music, using the same platform. It just takes the right kind of auto battery — the iPod in this story — and the right kind of national plug-in network — the iTunes store — to make the business model work for electric cars at six cents a mile. The average American is paying today around 12 cents a mile for gasoline transportation, which also adds to global warming and strengthens petro-dictators.
Do not expect this innovation to come out of Detroit. Remember, in 1908, the Ford Model-T got better mileage — 25 miles per gallon — than many Ford, G.M. and Chrysler models made in 2008. But don’t be surprised when it comes out of somewhere else. It can be done. It will be done. If we miss the chance to win the race for Car 2.0 because we keep mindlessly bailing out Car 1.0, there will be no one to blame more than Detroit’s new shareholders: we the taxpayers.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html
While Detroit Slept
December 10, 2008
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Op-Ed Columnist
As I think about our bailing out Detroit, I can’t help but reflect on what, in my view, is the most important rule of business in today’s integrated and digitized global market, where knowledge and innovation tools are so widely distributed. It’s this: Whatever can be done, will be done. The only question is will it be done by you or to you. Just don’t think it won’t be done. If you have an idea in Detroit or Tennessee, promise me that you’ll pursue it, because someone in Denmark or Tel Aviv will do so a second later.
Why do I bring this up? Because someone in the mobility business in Denmark and Tel Aviv is already developing a real-world alternative to Detroit’s business model. I don’t know if this alternative to gasoline-powered cars will work, but I do know that it can be done — and Detroit isn’t doing it. And therefore it will be done, and eventually, I bet, it will be done profitably.
And when it is, our bailout of Detroit will be remembered as the equivalent of pouring billions of dollars of taxpayer money into the mail-order-catalogue business on the eve of the birth of eBay. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into the CD music business on the eve of the birth of the iPod and iTunes. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into a book-store chain on the eve of the birth of Amazon.com and the Kindle. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into improving typewriters on the eve of the birth of the PC and the Internet.
What business model am I talking about? It is Shai Agassi’s electric car network company, called Better Place. Just last week, the company, based in Palo Alto, Calif., announced a partnership with the state of Hawaii to road test its business plan there after already inking similar deals with Israel, Australia, the San Francisco Bay area and, yes, Denmark.
The Better Place electric car charging system involves generating electrons from as much renewable energy — such as wind and solar — as possible and then feeding those clean electrons into a national electric car charging infrastructure. This consists of electricity charging spots with plug-in outlets — the first pilots were opened in Israel this week — plus battery-exchange stations all over the respective country. The whole system is then coordinated by a service control center that integrates and does the billing.
Under the Better Place model, consumers can either buy or lease an electric car from the French automaker Renault or Japanese companies like Nissan (General Motors snubbed Agassi) and then buy miles on their electric car batteries from Better Place the way you now buy an Apple cellphone and the minutes from AT&T. That way Better Place, or any car company that partners with it, benefits from each mile you drive. G.M. sells cars. Better Place is selling mobility miles.
The first Renault and Nissan electric cars are scheduled to hit Denmark and Israel in 2011, when the whole system should be up and running. On Tuesday, Japan’s Ministry of Environment invited Better Place to join the first government-led electric car project along with Honda, Mitsubishi and Subaru. Better Place was the only foreign company invited to participate, working with Japan’s leading auto companies, to build a battery swap station for electric cars in Yokohama, the Detroit of Japan.
What I find exciting about Better Place is that it is building a car company off the new industrial platform of the 21st century, not the one from the 20th — the exact same way that Steve Jobs did to overturn the music business. What did Apple understand first? One, that today’s technology platform would allow anyone with a computer to record music. Two, that the Internet and MP3 players would allow anyone to transfer music in digital form to anyone else. You wouldn’t need CDs or record companies anymore. Apple simply took all those innovations and integrated them into a single music-generating, purchasing and listening system that completely disrupted the music business.
What Agassi, the founder of Better Place, is saying is that there is a new way to generate mobility, not just music, using the same platform. It just takes the right kind of auto battery — the iPod in this story — and the right kind of national plug-in network — the iTunes store — to make the business model work for electric cars at six cents a mile. The average American is paying today around 12 cents a mile for gasoline transportation, which also adds to global warming and strengthens petro-dictators.
Do not expect this innovation to come out of Detroit. Remember, in 1908, the Ford Model-T got better mileage — 25 miles per gallon — than many Ford, G.M. and Chrysler models made in 2008. But don’t be surprised when it comes out of somewhere else. It can be done. It will be done. If we miss the chance to win the race for Car 2.0 because we keep mindlessly bailing out Car 1.0, there will be no one to blame more than Detroit’s new shareholders: we the taxpayers.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
TerpTrader
Member
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
Manoftruth posted this info awhile back. I don't know if the numbers are correct.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkCfl5udYXw
Total Collapse of Western civilization coming .Steps you must take
Look at the biggest one day gains for the DOW, 1929,1930's,1987, and today. What does that tell you?
#3 was the day after the great crash of 1929.
Best Days of the Dow (% Gain)
1 15.3% March 15, 1933
2 14.9% October 6, 1931
3 12.3% October 30, 1929
4 11.1% October 13, 2008
5 10.1% October 21, 1987
6 9.5% August 3, 1932
7 9.5% February 11, 1932
8 9.4% November 14, 1929
9 9.4% December 18, 1931
10 9.2% February 13, 1932
Manoftruth posted this info awhile back. I don't know if the numbers are correct.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkCfl5udYXw
Total Collapse of Western civilization coming .Steps you must take
Look at the biggest one day gains for the DOW, 1929,1930's,1987, and today. What does that tell you?
#3 was the day after the great crash of 1929.
Best Days of the Dow (% Gain)
1 15.3% March 15, 1933
2 14.9% October 6, 1931
3 12.3% October 30, 1929
4 11.1% October 13, 2008
5 10.1% October 21, 1987
6 9.5% August 3, 1932
7 9.5% February 11, 1932
8 9.4% November 14, 1929
9 9.4% December 18, 1931
10 9.2% February 13, 1932
poolman
Top Return 2008
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
Fixing the 401(k)
Lawmakers are floating a number of ideas to protect your retirement savings. Here are a few possible changes.
By Penelope Wang, Money Magazine senior writer
December 12, 2008: 6:46 AM ET
(Money Magazine) -- What is Washington, D.C. cooking up in response to the retirement savings crisis? With a new administration in town, there's a good chance some reforms may take place. Here's a look at four of the most discussed proposals:
Relaxed hardship-withdrawal rules
President-elect Barack Obama has proposed temporarily dropping the 10% penalty for hardship withdrawals from an IRA or a 401(k) for amounts up to 15% of your plan or $10,000.
Easing up on required distributions
For those age 70½ or older, Obama has proposed temporarily suspending required minimum withdrawals from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s.
An automatic IRA
Under this plan, designed by a nonpartisan group and endorsed by Obama, small businesses without 401(k)s would have to enroll workers in a payroll-deduction savings plan (you could opt out), but no matching contribution would be required.
A new national savings plan
Proponents of a government-backed retirement savings account that would guarantee an inflation-adjusted return of 3% initially got little support. But recently one of its biggest backers was asked to testify on Capitol Hill - a sign that the plan is getting serious attention.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/10/retirement/fixing_401k.moneymag/mailto:money_letters@moneymail.com
Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/10/retirement/fixing_401k.moneymag/index.htm
Lawmakers are floating a number of ideas to protect your retirement savings. Here are a few possible changes.
By Penelope Wang, Money Magazine senior writer
December 12, 2008: 6:46 AM ET
(Money Magazine) -- What is Washington, D.C. cooking up in response to the retirement savings crisis? With a new administration in town, there's a good chance some reforms may take place. Here's a look at four of the most discussed proposals:
Relaxed hardship-withdrawal rules
President-elect Barack Obama has proposed temporarily dropping the 10% penalty for hardship withdrawals from an IRA or a 401(k) for amounts up to 15% of your plan or $10,000.
Easing up on required distributions
For those age 70½ or older, Obama has proposed temporarily suspending required minimum withdrawals from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s.
An automatic IRA
Under this plan, designed by a nonpartisan group and endorsed by Obama, small businesses without 401(k)s would have to enroll workers in a payroll-deduction savings plan (you could opt out), but no matching contribution would be required.
A new national savings plan
Proponents of a government-backed retirement savings account that would guarantee an inflation-adjusted return of 3% initially got little support. But recently one of its biggest backers was asked to testify on Capitol Hill - a sign that the plan is getting serious attention.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/10/retirement/fixing_401k.moneymag/mailto:money_letters@moneymail.com
Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/10/retirement/fixing_401k.moneymag/index.htm
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
8 really, really scary predictions
5 of 8
Jim Rogers
The commodities guru predicted two years ago that the credit bubble would devastate Wall Street.
We are in a period of forced liquidation, which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 150 years. The fact that it's historic doesn't make it any more fun, of course. But it is a pretty interesting time when there is forced selling of everything with no regard for facts or fundamentals at all. Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The fundamentals of GM are impaired. The fundamentals of Citigroup are impaired.
Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities. Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now. Nobody's going to get a loan to open a zinc or a lead mine. Meanwhile, every day the supply of commodities shrinks more and more. Nobody can invest in productive capacity, even if he wants to. You're going to see gigantic shortages developing over the next few years. The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they've been in 50 years. This may turn into the Great Depression II. But if and when we come out of this, commodities are going to lead the way, just as they did in the 1970s when everything was a disaster and commodities went through the roof.
What I've been buying recently is agricultural commodities. I've also been buying more Chinese stocks. And I'm buying stocks in Taiwan for the first time in my life. It looks as if there's finally going to be peace in Taiwan after 60 years, and Taiwanese companies are going to benefit from the long-term growth of China.
I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I'm now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That's the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back.
In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive. Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen. And if it gets that low and I'm still solvent, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot. The key in times like these is to stay solvent so you can load up when opportunity comes.
8 really, really scary predictions
5 of 8
Jim Rogers
The commodities guru predicted two years ago that the credit bubble would devastate Wall Street.
We are in a period of forced liquidation, which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 150 years. The fact that it's historic doesn't make it any more fun, of course. But it is a pretty interesting time when there is forced selling of everything with no regard for facts or fundamentals at all. Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The fundamentals of GM are impaired. The fundamentals of Citigroup are impaired.
Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired - in fact, where they are actually improving - is commodities. Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now. Nobody's going to get a loan to open a zinc or a lead mine. Meanwhile, every day the supply of commodities shrinks more and more. Nobody can invest in productive capacity, even if he wants to. You're going to see gigantic shortages developing over the next few years. The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they've been in 50 years. This may turn into the Great Depression II. But if and when we come out of this, commodities are going to lead the way, just as they did in the 1970s when everything was a disaster and commodities went through the roof.
What I've been buying recently is agricultural commodities. I've also been buying more Chinese stocks. And I'm buying stocks in Taiwan for the first time in my life. It looks as if there's finally going to be peace in Taiwan after 60 years, and Taiwanese companies are going to benefit from the long-term growth of China.
I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I'm now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That's the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn't. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back.
In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive. Historically, you buy stocks when they're yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they're at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they're still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I'm not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen. And if it gets that low and I'm still solvent, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot. The key in times like these is to stay solvent so you can load up when opportunity comes.
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Greg's Account Talk
8 really, really scary predictions
3 of 8
Robert Shiller
The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles.
We don't currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today's environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven't seen since then. First of all, there's the magnitude of the stock market's move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we've had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we've seen 0% interest rates. We've actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn't happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn't happened since.
And the list goes on: Our numbers don't go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it's a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression.
I'm optimistic that we'll do better this time, but I'm worried that we're vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I'm worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that's difficult to restore. No matter what we do, we're trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we're back again. That's a little hard to manage.
In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It's a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that's the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there's a real chance it will go up a lot. But that's very risky. It could easily fall by half again.
8 really, really scary predictions
3 of 8
Robert Shiller
The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles.
We don't currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today's environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven't seen since then. First of all, there's the magnitude of the stock market's move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we've had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we've seen 0% interest rates. We've actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn't happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn't happened since.
And the list goes on: Our numbers don't go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it's a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression.
I'm optimistic that we'll do better this time, but I'm worried that we're vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I'm worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that's difficult to restore. No matter what we do, we're trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we're back again. That's a little hard to manage.
In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It's a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that's the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there's a real chance it will go up a lot. But that's very risky. It could easily fall by half again.
Re: Greg's Account Talk
Thanks for posting the Fortune article, Greg. I liked the first 7 of the 8 scarry articles.
Has anyone seen any good articles on how all these govt money printing exercises might affect the middle class of the US and the world? Do these hundreds of billions for bailouts have to be repaid or does it affect the value of currencies or what?
Thanks for posting the Fortune article, Greg. I liked the first 7 of the 8 scarry articles.
Has anyone seen any good articles on how all these govt money printing exercises might affect the middle class of the US and the world? Do these hundreds of billions for bailouts have to be repaid or does it affect the value of currencies or what?
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