MaStA's Account Talk

[MaStA]

Hello,

Hopefully some of you can help me out with where my contributions should be at.

Currently I have:
L 2040 = 60%
S Fund = 20%
I Fund = 20%

Kinda strange maybe since the L fund branches a percentage off into the S and I already, but a guy I used to work with helped me come up with these numbers. My major thing is seeing that the stock market started booming a little last week and today was a major upset. I've been told the stock market may not bottom out until April so is now a good time to pull my money into the G Fund? I would like to earn back the money I have lost since late December with the stock market tumbling, but at the same time I don't want to continue to lose more money. Is it maybe a good idea to move everything currently in TSP into the G fund, but continue to contribute into the other funds since buying them now is fairly cheap?

I'm just looking for a little help and I appreciate it.

Jared

 

[presskh]

Hello,

Hopefully some of you can help me out with where my contributions should be at.

Currently I have:
L 2040 = 60%
S Fund = 20%
I Fund = 20%

Kinda strange maybe since the L fund branches a percentage off into the S and I already, but a guy I used to work with helped me come up with these numbers. My major thing is seeing that the stock market started booming a little last week and today was a major upset. I've been told the stock market may not bottom out until April so is now a good time to pull my money into the G Fund? I would like to earn back the money I have lost since late December with the stock market tumbling, but at the same time I don't want to continue to lose more money. Is it maybe a good idea to move everything currently in TSP into the G fund, but continue to contribute into the other funds since buying them now is fairly cheap?

I'm just looking for a little help and I appreciate it.

Jared

As far as knowing if the market is at the bottom or not, if we could really prognosticate this with any certainty, we would probably not be working for the government. That being said, there seems to be two current camps of thought on this board: 1. The market falloff was a temporary correction due to the subprime debacle, with the market making a bottom on January 22, and is on its way back up, albeit not in a linear fashion. 2. We are in a bear market and this latest rally was a "bear market" rally in the overall downward trend, possibly falling to the mid-11,00's on the S&P 500.

Based on what I've read, I am leaning towards #2, but that is based only on my overall feeling about the economy. I am currently in the G fund waiting for either a confirmation of a renewed bull market or a deeper pullback as an entry point into stocks.

Others have different opinions - that's what's great about this board!

Good luck!

 

[Reactive1]

Well of course that's next to impossible for someone to do, it's a matter of opinion and I know I for one would not want to be responsible for someone else's retirement money. Personally, I would not work with the L funds, you can do that diversification yourself, and I just see it as sort of a "cop-out" for letting your money be manipulated without thought and consideration of market conditions. You can certainly look long term and say "the hell with it" and dollar cost average your way all the way to retirement if you want to. IMO you are overexposed to stocks, but at the same time you don't appear to be ACTIVE, so in fact that's ok, you are simply DCAing your way through, I just like to be more actively involved. I think the decision you need to make is: Do you want to coast through, which is perfectly fine, or do you want to get more active and watch more closely taking risks in moving money from time to time based on an assessment you make on market conditions?

 

[MaStA]

Well of course that's next to impossible for someone to do, it's a matter of opinion and I know I for one would not want to be responsible for someone else's retirement money. Personally, I would not work with the L funds, you can do that diversification yourself, and I just see it as sort of a "cop-out" for letting your money be manipulated without thought and consideration of market conditions. You can certainly look long term and say "the hell with it" and dollar cost average your way all the way to retirement if you want to. IMO you are overexposed to stocks, but at the same time you don't appear to be ACTIVE, so in fact that's ok, you are simply DCAing your way through, I just like to be more actively involved. I think the decision you need to make is: Do you want to coast through, which is perfectly fine, or do you want to get more active and watch more closely taking risks in moving money from time to time based on an assessment you make on market conditions?

Thank you for your input and the person above you as well. I'm young (22) and only have like $4,000 in there so it isn't like I am losing much of anything with the stock market's fluctuation. Of course I don't want to lose money...no one does. I save most of my money in a savings account because I don't typically like risking my money. I only put 5% in the TSP. People tell me I should invest, but I don't like the risk since I am a penny pincher I get what I want regardless. This isn't to sound big headed since I am only a E-4 with a line number for E-5. I don't make THAT much money, but I know how to manage what I do make into getting what I really want. If only more Americans were this way I believe our economy wouldn't be doing as poorly as it is now.

Basically, sure I would love to be more active in my funds that are in the stock market. Where can I start by reading/researching what each fund is more in depth than just this is the international fund, small cap, etc. To me it seems a little difficult because I don't know all of the companies associated with each stock. I think I found a pdf file or each fund that shows a few companies related to the specific fund, but I would like a whole picture if possible.

Thank you,
Jared

 

[Christopher]

Welcome, Jared!

MAN, if only I had been as wise and you and had begun contributing when I was 22 instead of 35... Ah, regrets, regrets.

But enough of that - you're young and fiscally conservative, so you're on the right track to incrementally building wealth. Slow and steady wins this race, so exercise patience and read and research the info found in the threads of this MB as much as time permits - especially anything on Dollar Cost Averaging ("DCAing") your transfers. JMHO.

Christopher

 

[MaStA]

I'm a little late, but after seeing what happened today I'm not going to continue to take the chances of the ups and downs. I moved everything I had to the G fund and made my future contributions go to the G fund. I imagine the money will be moved within the next two business days? Means I will probably lose even more money, but nothing I can do to speed it up I imagine.

 

[Reactive1]

You have to make the transaction before 12 noon (eastern I believe) for it to be effective the following morning. Otherwise it will be the day after that.

I don't think you need to concern yourself so much with what the funds are made up of as far as individual stocks. The C fund tracks the S&P 500, so that's literally 500 stocks across a broad range of sectors, which I doubt you want to take the time to learn about. The S fund is small-cap stocks, so if you are in both C and S you have money exposed to nearly the entirety of the US economy. The I fund is obviously international equities. More important for someone is to listen, read, assess. Look for a broad sense of where the markets are, realize there are opposing opinions, and just keep listening and learning. You CAN get a sense of where we are. Never be a pure bull or a pure bear, that's too simplistic and you will miss out bigtime, IMO. Look at Poolmans post here everyday and watch the technical analysis he links to. That's excellent stuff. Watch some of the shows on MSNBC (not Cramer), just to get some of this stuff in your head.

 

[Bullitt]

It takes money to make money. Time horizon should be included in 100% of your investing decisions. If you need the money tomorrow, it shouldn't be in the stock market, no matter how good you are. Some of the guys on this board have ~$5K to gain or lose any time the market moves 1% and will have a much different strategy than one in the accumulation stage of the game.

Be extremely careful with what you hear in the media; their time horizon is about the next 5 minutes. For example, a bear market by definition is a 20% drop from highs. We have yet to drop 20% from the highs in the S&P 500 but apparently we're in a bear market. A recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. We have yet to see that, but apparently we've been in a recession since the Summer 2007. I'm not disagreeing with these statements, it's just that these have been two prominent headlines in recent news that come to mind.

L Funds have held up pretty good so far. To put it in persepective, we're still 32 years away from the L2040 Fund hitting the finish line.


Historical Sentiment says we're more likely to be closer to the bottom than the top.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=148006&postcount=7

Hindsight is always 20/20.

http://web.da-us.citibank.com/cgi-b...e/article.jsp?BV_UseBVCookie=yes&BS_Id=LBP-22


Good Luck and watch your six.

 

[MaStA]

It takes money to make money. Time horizon should be included in 100% of your investing decisions. If you need the money tomorrow, it shouldn't be in the stock market, no matter how good you are. Some of the guys on this board have ~$5K to gain or lose any time the market moves 1% and will have a much different strategy than one in the accumulation stage of the game.

Be extremely careful with what you hear in the media; their time horizon is about the next 5 minutes. For example, a bear market by definition is a 20% drop from highs. We have yet to drop 20% from the highs in the S&P 500 but apparently we're in a bear market. A recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. We have yet to see that, but apparently we've been in a recession since the Summer 2007. I'm not disagreeing with these statements, it's just that these have been two prominent headlines in recent news that come to mind.

L Funds have held up pretty good so far. To put it in persepective, we're still 32 years away from the L2040 Fund hitting the finish line.


Historical Sentiment says we're more likely to be closer to the bottom than the top.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=148006&postcount=7

Hindsight is always 20/20.

http://web.da-us.citibank.com/cgi-b...e/article.jsp?BV_UseBVCookie=yes&BS_Id=LBP-22


Good Luck and watch your six.

Thanks for the input. I just have so much going on with recruiter school coming up, then ALS, and then off to Michigan to become a recruiter. I don't really have the time to sit down and care about the small amount of money in my TSP at this point. Unfortunate, but that is just the case. I am leaning towards purchasing a house/condo in Michigan instead of paying the same amount to rent since now is a great time to buy it seems. I will be there for 4-6 years and I should have a little bit of equity at least to turn around into some cash when I leave and sell. I'm sick of living in a apartment surrounded by people. So I think a good investment would be to get my own place and use the BAH they give me to OWN instead of RENT. So I'll let the stock market ride its waves and I will just keep my money in the G Fund for some time. Hopefully one day I will understand it all, but not too far in depth cause otherwise I may be working at the NYSE acting like I know which way the lines will go haha. Being an statistical analyst in the military now you would think I would know how to work this stuff out, but oh well haha. I'm only 22 give me some slack

Jared

 

[poolman]

Thanks for the input. I just have so much going on with recruiter school coming up, then ALS, and then off to Michigan to become a recruiter. I don't really have the time to sit down and care about the small amount of money in my TSP at this point. Unfortunate, but that is just the case. I am leaning towards purchasing a house/condo in Michigan instead of paying the same amount to rent since now is a great time to buy it seems. I will be there for 4-6 years and I should have a little bit of equity at least to turn around into some cash when I leave and sell. I'm sick of living in a apartment surrounded by people. So I think a good investment would be to get my own place and use the BAH they give me to OWN instead of RENT. So I'll let the stock market ride its waves and I will just keep my money in the G Fund for some time. Hopefully one day I will understand it all, but not too far in depth cause otherwise I may be working at the NYSE acting like I know which way the lines will go haha. Being an statistical analyst in the military now you would think I would know how to work this stuff out, but oh well haha. I'm only 22 give me some slack

Jared

I already give you Credit for even being in this group and MB at the age of 22. That is Outstanding.

Keep an eye on the market's for at least the next month or two. You should have a very good entry point to put your money in equities and leave it there instead of the G - Fund...

You have a very good opportunity ahead of you at such a young age. The market's are down quite abit now and headed lower.

Keep an eye on an opportunity to get fully invested and then don't worry about it.

 

[Fivetears]

G & F; Mix your drink as you see fit; for now.

 

[MaStA]

I already give you Credit for even being in this group and MB at the age of 22. That is Outstanding.

Keep an eye on the market's for at least the next month or two. You should have a very good entry point to put your money in equities and leave it there instead of the G - Fund...

You have a very good opportunity ahead of you at such a young age. The market's are down quite abit now and headed lower.

Keep an eye on an opportunity to get fully invested and then don't worry about it.

Well not to get off topic on TSP so much, but this is still an investment question so hopefully all is well.

Do you and anyone else have any input on whether I should invest in a home (house or condo; still undetermined) in Michigan when I move there instead of throwing slightly less money into a rental? The Michigan economy from my understanding is very bad and this seems like a great entry point for me into owning my own home and hopefully having some equity when I sell the home in ~5 years. I have been looking at some nice homes in the ~$120,000 range that are beautiful and in nice areas. Seeing that I can go the VA loan route and with my credit being 742 last I checked I should be able to get a solid rate with payments around $650-750 a month which is about what a 2 bedroom apartment with a 1 car detached garage would cost me. BAH up there is $727 for a SSgt which I will be come August 1st. I will pay out of pocket regardless of if I rent or own, but I figure probably about $200-300 out of pocket expenses for NEEDED bills like electric, gas, trash, and water a month extra. This would be a big step for me and I have talked with my dad and aunt about it and they are pretty much leaning towards buying instead of renting. I would like to get me a german shepherd once up there as well and to have a dog in a apartment costs $150-250 deposit plus $25-30 a month--this would not cost extra in my own home.

You all are intelligent investors and having some of your views would be definitely appreciated.

Thank you and sorry to go "off-topic," but then again this is my thread right? :laugh:

Jared

 

[Fivetears]

Don't rent. Bid / buy a foreclosed home in a neighborhood with good schools. Lot's of bargains to be had. Take your time choosing... if you have it. GL

 

[MaStA]

Don't rent. Bid / buy a foreclosed home in a neighborhood with good schools. Lot's of bargains to be had. Take your time choosing... if you have it. GL

If I lived there already it would be easy as can be...but that isn't the case. Like I said I will be busy till the end of June basically and I have to report no later than July 10th. I will get eight house hunting days when I get there and ten total days of the government paying for my hotel expenses. My only hope I think is to compile a list of places that look nice online and deal with a Realtor and take a weekend to go look at the places and make a bid on one. At the same time there is no way I am going to go buy a place without orders in my hand and a graduation certificate from the recruiter school. That would suck to buy a house and end up going somewhere else lol. With all of these factors in play I won't have much time so I am sorta lost. My aunt said I could put it in the contract that my bid stands on the graduation of tech school, but I don't know how far that would go. Hmmm...

 

[Fivetears]

Use your internet resources, son!
Thought about using the DORMS until you figure $tuff out??
Try Base Housing too!!
You need a sponsor my friend.

 

[MaStA]

Use your internet resources, son!
Thought about using the DORMS until you figure $tuff out??
Try Base Housing too!!
You need a sponsor my friend.

If I understand you right you think I live in the dorms, but I live in a apartment. I have a sponsor in MI, but I don't know how much he wants to be involved in my housing purchase lol. I think something will work out.

 

[Fivetears]

Bet he/she knows a good place to start looking. If not... leave your houshold goods in storage, and take your time. I think you have over a month of storage time; perhaps longer. Don't rush it. GL

 

[MaStA]

Bet he/she knows a good place to start looking. If not... leave your houshold goods in storage, and take your time. I think you have over a month of storage time; perhaps longer. Don't rush it. GL

Well I was going to do a Dity move and move it all myself. Things may change if I intend to get a house.

 

[Fivetears]

Done DITY. No longer worth the hastle. Photo / Video your stuff, and let the GOVT handle it. Your back will thank you. You'll sleep well too.

 

[MaStA]

Done DITY. No longer worth the hastle. Photo / Video your stuff, and let the GOVT handle it. Your back will thank you. You'll sleep well too.

I think you are definitely right especially if I am trying to deal with getting a house. It is much easier to store myself in a hotel than having a uhaul outside that I am paying daily for. I guess they would move my stuff up there and store it till I call them to say hey here is my address deliver ASAP. I thank you for bringing some insight to my look on things. Please understand this is my first PCS (besides going from basic to tech school, and tech school to Tinker). I was going to do the DITY only for the extra money, but at this point it doesn't seem feasible. Thanks again!

Jared