MARKET WATCH

[CSI]

imported post

Riding the bulls is never predictable. Even though we are giving back more than we made yesterday, some of us are, me included, there is a brite spot to the drama.The bulls are giving us one heck of a ride for now and it could just be beneficial to us as long as we hold on for the full 8 seconds. The harder the ride the more points we earn. The followingis a repeat of the post I did yesterday and I still stand by what I said.

OK, for those watching this thread, here are my bottom figures of support. If they hold, we should move up from here, it may just take a while.

DOW - 10,378
NASDAQ - 1,975
S&P 500 - 1,169

The longer we stay in the trading range we have been in, the bigger the bull move will be when it happens, either up or down.

Todays closing numbers:

DOW 10,403
NASDAQ - 1,974 - less than 1 point below support, has been the weakest link lately
S&P 500 - 1,173

Guess what? They all held and we actually saw some very late buying going into the close. We had some decent volumn and the new highs to new lows actually have been improving all weekexcept for yesterday. Today new lows out paced new highs by 2:1. If I rember corectly, yesterday it was 4 or 5:1 for new lows.

If we can get some good earnings reported tonight & tomorrow, I think we should have a decent day upward.

As always, the best of luck in your investing.

 

[Gritz]

imported post

"OK, for those watching this thread, here are my bottom figures of support. If they hold, we should move up from here, it may just take a while.

DOW - 10,378
NASDAQ - 1,975
S&P 500 - 1,169

The longer we stay in the trading range we have been in, the bigger the bull move will be when it happens, either up or down."

Hope it's to the upside when we break out. Thought I was buying into this drop yesterday only to have the market reverse course and ended up buying in on the rise and today...ouch; particulary the S. No solice in the I either, what's with that the dollar's down, I fund markets do ok and it still drops? Thank goodness there's always tomorrow.

Trading range appears in tack but the small caps have me somewhat concerned.

Apple numbers came in nicely but may not be enough to get us off the floor (if this is the floor) - anyone have dates/names for notable earnings to watch for?

CSI, should the C begin to climb, do you have an upward target number for the s&p? (1250?)

Enjoy your comments and the thread. Thanks to all and good fortune to you!

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

better days ahead.......this guy will go away soon!:^

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

Market Activity (Day in Review) for 4-13-2005
--Provided by Briefing.com--

Close Dow -104.04 at 10403.93, S&P -13.97 at 1173.79, Nasdaq -31.03 at 1974.37:

Widespread selling, sparked by higher bond yields, disappointing retail sales data and downside guidance, closed virtually every sector in negative territory, as all the major indices lost at least 1.0%... Volatility in Treasurys again played havoc with market sentiment, except today's arguably modest swings in bonds to the downside more than erased yesterday's late-day rally in equities, which was ignited primarily by just the opposite - a bond swing to the upside...

Today, bonds initially found modest buying interest, following weaker than expected March retail sales data, but meager indirect bidder participation (28.2%) in today's $15 bln 5-year note auction knocked the benchmark 10-year note (-8/32) to session lows and yields to their highs of the day (4.38%), further strengthening a negative tone first ignited by the poor retail sales figures... The 10-year note eventually closed down 5 ticks to yield 4.37%... March retail sales rose 0.3%, but checked in well below expectations of 0.8%, while the retail sales excluding autos grew just 0.1%, also below forecasts (+0.5%), following a revised 0.6% rise a month earlier...

While the weaker than expected March data may raise doubts about the trend in consumer spending, the numbers are not expected to greatly alter Q1 GDP estimates, which currently stand at about 3 1/2%... Also weighing on the markets was an earnings warning from Harley-Davidson (HDI 48.93 -9.84), which actually beat Q1 estimates by a penny, as well as downside guidance from the likes of Compuware (CPWR 6.00 -0.81) and Foundry Networks (FDRY 9.00 -0.45), which trumped upside Q1 guidance from Merck (MRK 34.52 +0.71) and McDonalds (MCD 31.22 +0.32)... Nine out of 10 economic sectors closed lower...

Pacing the way to the downside was the Materials sector (-2.7%), amid widespread weakness in Steel, Aluminum and Paper... Energy (-2.3%) was not far behind, as oil prices fell 3.2% to a 7-week low... Crude oil futures ($50.22/bbl -$1.64) extended yesterday's 3.4% sell off, amid better than expected builds of 3.6 mln barrels (consensus 400K) and 800K barrels (analysts expected levels to remain unchanged) in crude oil supplies and gasoline inventories, respectively... Falling oil prices, however, failed to lift overall sentiment due to the growing emphasis being placed on economic data, bond yields and upcoming corporate earnings growth...

Financial (-1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.4%), Industrials (-1.5%) and Technology (-1.7%) were also an influential leaders losing ground... Pacing losses in technology was Semiconductor (-2.7%), which was weak after ASML Holding (ASML 15.28 -1.03) forecasted a decline in Q2 orders and following a report that showed global sales of chip equipment fell 2.5% in Feb. - the first such decline in 19 months...

Weakness in shares of Apple Computer (AAPL 41.04 -1.62), ahead of its Q1 earnings report after the close, dragged Hardware (-1.3%) down while every other sub-sector also showed losses in excess of 1.0%... Health Care (+0.5%), however, was the lone bright spot of the day, getting a boost from Merck's upside Q1 guidance and optimism that a U.S. District Court's long awaited decision may show that the patent on Eli Lilly's (LLY 57.12 +3.30) drug Zyprexa is valid and that challenges brought by generic drug makers are without merit...DJTA -2.7, DJUA -0.7, DOT -1.6, Nasdaq 100 -1.9, Russell 2000 -1.6, SOX -2.7, S&P Midcap 400 -1.4, XOI -2.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 969/2328, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 883/2198

3:30PM: Bearish breadth figures and strong industry leadership to the downside continue to weigh heavily on the proceedings going into the close... In fact, of the six noteworthy companies out with earnings after the bell, only one - MGI Pharma Inc. (MOGN 25.82 +0.31) - has managed to attract buyers, arguably finding support from the only notable group also gaining ground on a day - Drug (+1.4%)... With regards to tomorrow, the bulk (12) of this week's 31 S&P components scheduled to report will post Q1 results...

Some notable names out before the bell include DJ, FDC, NYT, PEP, LUV, UIS and UNH while SUNW will report after the close... NYSE Adv/Dec 1002/2285, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 864/2170

3:00PM: Market continues to deteriorate heading into the final hour of trading, showing little reaction to another drubbing in oil... Crude oil futures ($50.22/bbl -$1.64) have recently closed, nearly matching yesterday's 3.4% decline... But even though the commodity has now fallen roughly 13% from all-time highs reached just last week, its impact on trading continues to be eclipsed by economic data and activity in the bond market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1092/2168, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 937/2059

2:30PM: Major indices continue to chalk up losses, spearheaded by a broad-based selling in technology... In the spotlight today have been Apple Computer (AAPL 41.31 -1.35) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 17.06 -0.17), both of which report quarterly earnings after the bell tonight... Apple, which has surpassed analysts' EPS forecasts by an average of $0.03 over the last 8 quarters, has been under pressure amid uncertainty that the company, notwithstanding iPod's soaring popularity, can deliver blowout results for the third quarter in a row...

AMD, which had traded higher most of the day amid speculation the chip maker may finally distance itself from its underperforming flash business, has recently followed the recent market downturn... Previews of both Apple's and AMD's upcoming earnings reports can be found in the archive for Briefing.com's Looking Ahead page... NYSE Adv/Dec 1105/2147, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 921/2039

2:00PM: Sellers show some resolve as the major indices fail to find support near key technical levels... A renewed wave of selling interest, initiated in part by a sell off in Treasurys, has prevented the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq from finding support near 10435, 1182 and 1984, respectively... Overall sentiment has also deteriorated, as decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq now hold a nearly 2 to 1 edge over advancers...NYSE Adv/Dec 1175/2068, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 976/1957

1:30PM: Stocks extend their reach into negative territory, as a disappointing bond auction renews selling interest in Treasurys... Yields on the benchmark 10-year note (-8/32) have recently climbed to their highest levels of the day (4.38%), as indirect bidder participation (foreign demand) for today's $15 bln 5-year note auction came in at a dismal 28.2% and the bid-cover ratio of 1.86 checked in at the lowest since June 2003...

While still below a more unnerving 4.50% level on the benchmark 10-year, investors have had little else in the way of market moving catalysts to influence the direction of trading... As such, an increase in borrowing costs has only weakened an already negative sentiment...NYSE Adv/Dec 1342/1862, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1110/1824

1:00PM: More of the same as the major averages continue to drift sideways and a bearish bias remains intact...Decliners on the NYSE hold an 19 to 12 advantage over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpaced advancing issues by a 9 to 5 margin... The ratio of down to up volumes, however, reflects a much more negative tone to trading on both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume on the NYSE is slightly heavier than yesterday...

Meanwhile, both the S&P and Nasdaq have failed to find initial support near key technical levels of 1185 and 1995, respectively, while the Dow has found support above the 10475 level but has failed to break through resistance near the 10530 mark...NYSE Adv/Dec 1264/1911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1049/1835

12:30PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as buying interest remains scarce across the board... Drug stocks (+1.2%), however, have attracted buyers in a down market, spiking much higher within the last hour after Merck (MRK 35.14 +1.33) said that it now expects Q1 EPS to be $0.62 (consensus $0.56), due to ongoing cost management, the favorable impact of foreign exchange and overall revenue performance...

Also providing a boost to the group has been a rally in shares of Eli Lilly (LLY 55.38 +1.56), amid optimism that a U.S. District Court's long awaited decision (tomorrow at 5:50 ET) may show that the patent on LLY's drug Zyprexa is valid and that challenges brought by generic drug makers are without merit...NYSE Adv/Dec 1251/1884, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1034/1800

12:00PM: Market remains under pressure midday as disappointing retail sales data and earnings warnings continue to overshadow falling oil prices amid better than expected oil inventories data... March retail sales rose 0.3% and sales ex-autos grew a modest 0.1%, but both figures checked in well below expectations of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively... Sure, the disappointing sales data may heighten fears about continued strength in consumer spending, which has subsequently kept a lid on buying interest across the board; but the numbers are not expected to greatly alter Q1 GDP estimates of 3 1/2%...

However, not even a modest rally in Treasurys following the downside sales surprise, which pushed yields on the 10-yr note as low as 4.326%, has been enough to bring buyers back to extend yesterday's late-day gains... The benchmark 10-year is currently unchanged yielding 4.34%... An earnings warning from Harley-Davidson (HDI 48.73 -10.04), which actually beat Q1 estimates by a penny, as well as downside guidance from the likes of Compuware (CPWR 5.75 -1.06) and Foundry Networks (FDRY 9.07 -0.38), have also increased nervousness before week one of earnings is even in the books...

Meanwhile, crude oil futures have been weak all morning, extending yesterday's 3.4% decline, amid better than expected builds of 3.6 mln barrels (consensus 400K) and 800K barrels (analysts expected levels to remain unchanged) in crude oil supplies and gasoline inventories, respectively... Lower oil, however, has failed to translate into gains for equities, as an increased focus on corporate earnings and activity in Treasurys continues to set a more definitive tone for overall trading...

Eight out of 10 economic sectors continue to struggle, as widespread weakness in Aluminum, Steel and Paper continues to weigh on the Materials (-1.3%) sector... Technology (-0.6%) has also been weak, amid discouraging news in the semi cap equipment space (-2.2%) and lower than expected Q2 orders expected from ASML Holding (ASML 15.31 -1.00)... Also under pressure have been Financial (-0.4%), following the departure of two top Morgan Stanley (MWD 53.89 -0.59) investment bankers, and Energy (-0.3%), as oil prices continue to slide...

Health Care (+0.3%) and Consumer Staples (+0.1%), however, have managed modest gains, with the latter recently getting a lift from solid buying interest in Drug (+0.7%) amid Merck's (MRK 34.13 +0.32) upside Q1 guidance and reaffirmed FY05 outlook...DJTA -1.1, DJUA -0.1, DOT -0.6, Nasdaq 100 -0.9, Russell 2000 -0.6, SOX -1.7, S&P Midcap 400 -0.6, XOI -0.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1281/1789, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1076/1736

11:30AM: Stocks slide to their lowest levels of the session, as a slew of earnings warnings keeps buyers on the sidelines... Even though Harley-Davidson (HDI 48.82 -9.95) has beaten analysts' Q1 expectations by a penny, lowered Q2 and FY05 EPS guidance has prompted multiple analyst downgrades, leaving HDI as the worst performing stock on the NYSE... Earnings warnings from Compuware (CPWR 5.76 -1.05) and Foundry Networks (FDRY 9.10 -0.35) have also weighed on overall sentiment in the early going, as uncertainty during the first full week of earnings reports continues to mount...NYSE Adv/Dec 1196/1812, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1006/1735

11:00AM: Major indices spike higher following better than expected oil inventories data, but the recovery effort is short-lived, as stocks retrace earlier lows... Crude oil supplies climbed for a ninth consecutive week, rising 3.6 mln barrels versus a more modestly anticipated rise of 400K barrels, and gasoline inventories rose 800K barrels amid higher output from refineries, versus forecasts which called for levels to remain unchanged...

The news initially pushed crude oil futures to their lowest levels of the morning to around $50.30/bbl (-3.0%), but the knee-jerk buying interest in stocks was over nearly as fast as it began, as the commodity's influence on equities remains weak in the face of today's disappointing retail sales data and a growing emphasis on corporate earnings and bond yields... NYSE Adv/Dec 1279/1664, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1085/1598

10:30AM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, Financial (-0.4%) has been in focus following the departure of two top Morgan Stanley (MWD 53.71 -0.77) investment bankers... Also contributing to sector weakness has been a 4.0% sell off in shares of BB&T Corp (BBT 37.60 -1.61), which posted a 20% rise in Q1 earnings but merely matched analysts' Q1 forecasts amid weaker than expected fee generation...

Goldman Sachs' (GS 111.19 -0.57) has also made headlines, after successful funding the largest ever private-equity fund with $8.5 bln in capital; but yesterday's indictment of one of its specialists for improper trading has kept a lid on buying interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 1089/1709, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1050/1518

10:00AM: Equities remain on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Eight out of 10 economic sectors have traded lower, with Materials (-0.9%) pacing the way lower due to weakness in Aluminum, Steel and Paper... Information Technology (-0.6%) has also been an influential leader to the downside, amid discouraging news about the semi cap equipment space (-1.8%), while Energy (-0.3%) has been under pressure amid falling oil prices ahead of weekly oil data...

At 10:30 ET, the EIA is expected to report a 300K barrel increase in crude oil inventories and a 500K build in distillates while gasoline supplies are expected to remain unchanged at 212.3 mln barrels... Consumer Staples (+0.1%) and Health Care (+0.1%), however, have eked out modest gains...DJTA -0.5, DJUA -0.7, SOX -1.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 947/1470, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1005/1350

9:40AM: Stocks show no follow through from yesterday's late-day recovery amid disappointing retail sales data... March retail sales rose 0.3% but checked in well below expectations of 0.8%, while the total excluding auto sales grew just 0.1%, also below forecasts (+0.5%), following a revised 0.6% rise a month earlier... While the weaker than expected March data may raise doubts about the trend in consumer spending, the numbers are not expected to greatly alter Q1 GDP estimates, which currently stand at about 3 1/2%...

In the meantime, stocks remain weak across the board while Treasurys, in contrast, have held onto modest gains following the downside retail sales surprise, as the 10-yr note is up 4 ticks yielding 4.33%...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the cash market, as the futures market continues to trade close to fair value... Aside from the disappointing retail sales data, investors have had to juggle mixed earnings and guidance... McDonald's (MCD) has issued upside Q1 guidance while Harley-Davidson (HDI) has beaten Q1 estimates by a penny but lowered its FY05 EPS guidance, prompting an analyst downgrade...

Last night, Compuware (CPWR) and Foundry Networks (FDRY) also warned, providing investors with little in the way of enough upbeat news to extend yesterday's late-day gains

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Futures trade ticks a bit lower following economic data, still indicating a lower open for the indices... Mar. retail sales checked in at 0.3%, well below expectations, while ex autos came in at 0.1%, also below expectations and versus a revised 0.6% (up from 0.4%)... In response to the data, Treasurys have rallied, as the 10-yr note is now up 6 ticks yielding 4.32%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors await economic data... At 8:30 ET, Mar. Retail Sales (consensus +0.8%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.5%) will be released... Meanwhile, oil prices have extended losses, inching closer to $51/bbl ahead of weekly oil inventories data (10:30 ET), but technology has come under pressure after a report showed that global sales of chip-making equipment fell 2.5% in Feb. - the first such decline in 19 months

6:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0.

6:30AM: FTSE...4965.80...+19.60...+0.4%. DAX...4400.69...+28.57...+0.7%.

6:30AM: Nikkei...11637.52...-32.78...-0.3%. Hang Seng...13799.62...+141.57...+1.0%.

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

PUNDITZ WATCH....

I want to turn to gold
by Richard Russell
April 13, 2005
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell041305.html

In Search of Catalysts
By Tobin Smith
April 13, 2005
http://www.changewave.com/BreakingWaves.html?Source=/Archive/2005/4/8-8184.html

Beware an April rally!
by Marc Faber
April 09, 2005
http://www.ameinfo.com/57336.html

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

off another board:

There are alot of confused traders 'out there'.

The market as far as i can see, has done nothing different recently to what its been doing for weeks, i speak particularly of the Nasdaq and QQQQ that i trade, pull up a chart and look for yourself, does anything jump out about the last week versus the last 2 months?

Yet, the CONSENSUS PERCEPTION is that the market is 'confusing'/whiplashing/a manipulaton con trick etc

This psychology to me reveals 2 important points -
1.That the majority of traders have a bullish bias, because this action is only confusing to those have bullish bias(i've posted about this excessive bullish sentiment for weeks now.)
2. That we are at a key price area, as revealed by this DISPROPORTIONATE EMOTIONAL RESPONSE to PRICE MOVEMENTS.

Whichever direction we move out of this range, is very likely to see a large trending move, and to my way of thinking, it will be the OPPOSITE
DIRECTION TO HOW MOST HAVE BET.

Point 2 is key, as is also my view that the market is not random, and is a casino. The casino owners will do whatever it takes to put
the punters on the wrong side of big moves. Therefore, i pay far more attension to how SENTIMENT REACTS TO PRICE CHANGES, than
i do the actual price changes.

I Marvel at Da' Boys
-----------------------------
Case in point, the last two days....da boys' know exactly what it will take to -
a. Make shorts cover
b. Get everyone long ready to take it down.

Just think about the last 2 days. We are sitting at 2pm yesterday within a fraction of breaking down out of key ranges, and a 'herd' following
decline. Put/call was around 1.4 or something silly. Then, magically, a vertical blast.

Reality--> price fell short of recent upper end of range, it was on poor internals
Consensus perception --> wow, amazing rally, this is it (again).....What struck me last night, was the position poll again had something like 16:4 fully long, and we are yet to have a majoirt more short than long as far back as i can recall.

Then this morning, i pointed this out at 1.27pm with the market sitting at Fib retracement levels -
[url]http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=32779&hl=[/url]
"Since 10-30 am - there have been 80,000 equity puts bought, and 300,000 calls.
10.30am was roughly tthe Fib 0.5 and 0.618 retrace on many indexes.
This is confirmed by ISE data, jumping from 152 at 11.30 to 182 at 12.30
Also i note the VXN is down again.
I humbly suggest too many are buying the 'retracement' for the rally so many bulls here keep asking for - choppy market at best i believe.
BTW - the pattern i'm watching would mean down into this afternoon, holding above about QQQQ 36.1 -"


So da' boys in the space of few hours, managed to switch the trading consensus from 'end of the world ( put/call 1.4) to an hourly put/call of about 0.2 at the 50% retracement point i.e. they convinced everyone to buy the pullback.

Then, by the end of the day, were back exactly where we were at 2pm yestedays, with the Da' boys mission accomplished -
1. They forced out shorts who were trying to get in on the decline - so forget the 'there's loads of shorts' - this decline since Jan has continously swept out shorts with this fast up moves like this, i know, cos' i've had to sit tight through em'.
2. They got everyone long at the high, and are forcing them to cover at the lows
3. The equity put/call was low today, they've got majority too scared to short......fast up, grind down always does that.

I have been victim enough times to be able too smell a rat., this is why i said yesterday - "I actually think this is a fake out little rally, but i want to see
it fail before re-establishing the sell signal ....No evidence to go long yet either - so neutral(cash) is best risk/reward here." ( refering to swing) FYI - Day trading, i am looking for more chop/up down in the range we've been in into next week"
[url]http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=32709&hl=[/url]


Just feeling pleased with myself so thought i'd mention that.

------------------------------------------------
I really don't have anything else to say beyond what i laid out in detail in this post below. My Swing model is now neutral as of yesterday, and now the rally
has failed as i expected, i am looking to re-establish a sell signal, most likely next week from slightly higher levels. If the market plunges instead from here, i will simply wait for a long setup instead. Day trading wise i am looking for support and resistance to hold into next week, with minor range expansion. THat is, i am not looking for major moves out of the range yet. The risk for long is definetely a plunge through support, currently QQQQ and SPY have head&shoulder pattern as well.
[url]http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=32475&hl=[/url]

I want to follow up what i said in the April 7 comment, when the bullisness was rising - "Tomorrow[april8] will be a great read on the overall health of the 'bull' market. There can be no excuses tomorrow. The markets has taken off like a rocket from this
technical setup everytime in the 'bull market'. Oil has had a big pullback, and so that can't be used as a reason . Either we follow through strongly tomorrow, or this market is in alot of trouble longer term. If it fails to follow through, i'm confident another down leg will come. Looking at monthly charts the QQQQ is at its mid -BB point and a cross below puts QQQQ at extreme risk of a big sell off and bear market"

The next few days the market failed, OIL PLUMMETED, yet the bullisness remained, and we have seen a repeat performance the last 2days. This market is currently in trouble, yet very few are recognising it, and until they do, those traders will remain 'confused' that what worked during the bull market, is
no longer working so well - the CONTEXT HAS CHANGED. I don't say for certain its a bear market, but the facts/evidence are suggesting its possible.

I tried to make this point in that recent comment as well -
"5. I'm leaning very slighty, say 60:40, that QQQQ is now in a bear market, if it is, this
is exactly the kind of setup that will fail again, just like in feb. If its not, tomorrow will follow through on today. My own 'smart' money indicators, are showing professionals doing all the selling, and amateurs actually buying the decline, that's not happened in the whole of the 'bull market'. Many of my indicators are 'acting different' on this decline. These are the warning signs that i'm looking at, plus sentiment never washing out on the decline, and turning bullish at the lows..hmm."


So far then, the market is confirming a bearish outcome. I will get bullish, when i finally see a washout in sentiment, and by my measures we have
alot of work to do there. The more we rally here before a washout, the more bearish it will be. Better if we just plunge and washout here, then i think
the bull market still has a chance. Note the position poll tonight, as i write, still more bulls then bears.

********************************************************************

guy is not as optimistic as i am...but an interesting post non the less.

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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[CSI]

imported post

Tecno, you read far to much and just confuse you self, just jostling. In computer language, garbage in garbage out, I know, I've done it many times. Iseldom watch or listen to the guys on the news as it is always slanted to make whatever point the person wants to get over, and as for charts, I can create any kind of chart you want to reflect any position you want to take on any market. You can always find a pattern some time in the past to support whatever it is you want to convince others of. What really moves markets???? Profits, I don't think soooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! How did all the dot coms in the 90's get such lofty PEs, not from profits. Now that is something to watch, not PEs of individual stocks, but the market as a whole. I'm sure there is a pattern there. To get off on a different track for a moment take greyhound racing for instance. The best dog at a given track only wins 30% or less of the races he/she competes in and pays out the least amount of money, but on the other hand, picking the winning dogin only a few of the other 70% of the time does pay well. Is it better to win moreand lose or win less and gain. By now you are probably wondering where I'm going with such nonsense. Consider this, company A earns 15 billion dollars, 100 million less than what someso called analyst predicted, their stock takes a hit and moves down,is company A going broke,NO, are they making good money, YES, so what really drives markets, not profits. I've invested in the stock market for a long time, I've madesome nice moneyand I've lost my share also, and to this day, I still do not know. The one thing I do know for sure, if you are concerned about or worry about losing you money in the stock market, put it in the G fund or money market account where it is safe. The profits thatwere made and lost over the last 12 yrs in the market will probably not repeat itself again in my life time. Can I be reasonable in saying that, probably not, I have no idea when or what might be invented that will create such market excitement. I have a feeling that you would not be reading this if that is what you wanted. I know what you all want to know, is the market going up, and the answer is ............. Stay tuned in and watch the rodeo!

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

csi

LOL

me thinks: the markets will continue to surprise us all. no matter what background u have.

it is just a game .... is it not??? just trying to have a little fun with it and who knows maybe even make a bit of jack along the way. find all of the involved dynamics very interesting 2 study.

2 me ......always in the g fund islike living in a bomb shelter. you have to take a chance 2 have one bro.

tekno

after all life is what happens when your plans fall apart. :shock:

 

[CSI]

imported post

tekno

You da man !!!!!!! My saying "Take the time to smell the roses even if one stinks sometimes". It's the journey that counts, not so much the outcome, for the final outcome for us all has already been determined, but I don't want to turn this into a religious thread.

Yes, it is just a game, and yes, I was just poking fun. With your TSP account, the markets can not do so bad that you will lose all your money in a day, no matter what you do. It really is a cheap form of gambling. I too, hope to pocket a little greenevery now and then.

For the younger crowd. Put all you can into your TSP account. If you are the worring type, put 20% in each fund. Over the long run you will sleep better and you will get anice compound growth on your money.

For the rest. Enjoy the trip.

How many peoplewin money going to a casino??? I expect most, but the real question is what percent goes home with more money than what they went with..................only 2%. That means that 98% of all people going to a casino adds to their bottom line, not bad odds for the casinos. So, the only reason to go to a casino is to have fun, likewise, playing the stock market.

One last thought for the night. Did you know that of all the day traders over the last 15 yrs, only 1 or 2have not gone bankrupt. Not very good odds on trying to beat the market on a daily basis.A lot like to brag, but only a very few are telling the truth.

 

[CSI]

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Time to saddle up and start herding those bulls, getting ready for the roundup and hodown. Things are starting to shape up. Is a rally at hand or a thunder storm on the horizon that will scatter the bulls. I think I see the sun peeking thru the clouds. Is it a mirage or the real thing! I will be making a change in my allocation before the deadline today. The I fund has been my friend in the past, but it appears that it has turned on me. I feel an itch coming on. Have a good day my friends and as always, the best of luck to you!!!!!!!


gritz, sent you a private msg

 

[CSI]

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Who, who, who let the dawg out? Someone needs totie him back up again. I'm playing my itch, changed my allocation toC - 30%, S - 70% for tomorrow. You just have to either hate or love the S & I funds. I've lost my love temporarily for the I, cooled my heels for the C, and become infactuated by the S. Now we'll just have to wait and see how they feel about little old me.

 

[CSI]

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Do any of you remember the movie "Cool Hand Luke"? Remember when Steve McQueen asked to go relieve himself and tied a string to a bush an shook it so the sheriff would think he was behind it still before taking off running. This has nothing to do with the market but came into my mind when thinking that the market is shaking the bushes flushing out the remainingbulls this morning. Also, when Steve put pepper down on his trail to confuse the dawgs, that is exactly what the market is doing to us. Do we throw up our hands and surrender or stand firm? "REMEMBER the ALAMO" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[CSI]

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How has the CS&I funds done so far this yr. As of close of business yesterday, the C fund is down $.24 since Jan. 3, 2005, the S fund is down $.44 and the I fund is up $.15 in share price. % wise the C fund is down .019, the S fund down .03, and the I fund up .009. Given these percents, if you had $1000 invested in each fund and keep it there for the entire time, your money would now be C - $982.00, S - $970.00, and I - $1009.00. I show you this so you want get to worried about what the market is doing over a short period of time.

The sky appears to be clearing. I only see a little lighting on the horizon. The dawg is being tied back up. Hope they do a better job of keeping him contained for the next few days.

 

[CSI]

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Do you know what it means to Cowboy Up????? It's that time now!!!!!!!! Things always look the worst during the storm, but oh how beautiful the sky is after and the air smells so fresh. Cowboy Up means to hold on when you think you have reached your limit. Nothing is as bad as it seems, it could get worst, but odds are that things will improve. "Dam the torpedos, full speed ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!"

 

[The_Technician]

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Interesting trend happening....

I have been looking at volume data.....and I saw an interesting trend.....the 40 day average volume hasn't been this high since the S&P 500 was in the 700's in July 2002.

Something to consider when you make a decision to get in or get out. I believe some of you have mentioned that the time to get out is when the volume is high.

I have noticed since the evaluation of the Fed report on Tuesday, u know when they said that the minutes from theMarch meeting did not indicate inflation was a problem (huh??), the S&P volume has had a stark increase.

Hope this helps when its decision time, in any case, watch it....bears are lurking.o

Keep your eyes open.

Wishing u well,

The Technician

 

[CSI]

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I always watch the volumn. I like the fact that yesterday & today we are getting higher volumn going down. It tells me thatsome of the remaining bulls and the last of the heard have taken all the pain they can bear andare turning bearish, which is a good sign. Also, been watching the new highs and lows. So far today, new lows are outpaceing new highs by almost 6:1 New highs 38, new lows 211. If we are not at the bottom, we are pretty darn close. Now is not the time to jump ship. "Stay the course", aye, aye Captain.

 

[tsptalk]

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CSI wrote:

It tells me thatsome of the remaining bulls and the last of the heard have taken all the pain they can bear andare turning bearish, which is a good sign.

I agree. AAII Investor Sentinment Survey - Those bullish = 16% !!!

Lowest in years. I know I sound like a broken record but as CSI says, that is a good sign.

 

[tennisguy]

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tsptalk wrote:

CSI wrote:

It tells me that some of the remaining bulls and the last of the heard have taken all the pain they can bear and are turning bearish, which is a good sign.

I agree. AAII Investor Sentinment Survey - Those bullish = 16% !!!

Lowest in years. I know I sound like a broken record but as CSI says, that is a good sign.

Ok if it wasn't for this site I would be running for the G fund right now. losing over 1.5 percent in two days owch! (I would be part of the dumb money) But instead I am starting to look forward to the next couple of weeks. My emotions tell me to sell which is a good sign for the bulls to come out I guess. sure learning alot :^
Good luck
Tennis Guy:

 

[CSI]

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Futures indicate a selloff again this morning. A few have indicated the pain is starting to become impossible to bear. I do not have much to add to what Tom(tsptalk) had to say this morning. You all know where I stand and I'll say it again.

"Dam the topedoes, full speed ahead".

The sub will soon run out of torpedoes and have to surface and fight a losing battle.

I will not be around much if any today, so have a great day and weekend. Don't worry about the market, it is only money and you should not place too much on it. Most millionairs have been bankrupt at least once in their life.