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Market Trading
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Hi Pyriel!
...................................................................................................................................
STOPS
We are working stop losses.
Generally the maximum loss we should consider is 5% to any one fund, and 2% to our total portfolio. Over a 2% loss in total funds hints that our strategy needs a correction.
In TSP the 1 - 2 day transfer time is also a hinderance. In addition stops can't be automatically set in your funds. So we have to deal with paper stops. I like starting on the conservative side and loosening the stop as needed.
So I'll start with 2% and use the C fund which corresponds to the S$P 500.
Roughly we are in the 1200 range. So 2% of 1200 = 24.
On May 27 when the market was at 1198 my stop was at 1174. Tuesday the market was down at 1191, stop was holding. Today Wednesday we had a rally to 1202, so I raise my stop to 1178, and proceed.
Remember this is a paper stop. If my stop gets broken, it's decision time. Do I take my profits and go. Is the stop too conservative. Maybe an isolated reaction or profit taking. How are the fundamentals doing? Never the less it's triggered a decision on my part!
Oil is at 54.60. Panic starts at 55. The upsurge in oil cut the top off of todays rally.
On days like this I may just put in a ITF to 100G for tomorrow and watch the AM market. If it starts ok I'll cancel the ITF. Having the ITF in will ensure a transaction. Not being able to effect one could be worse.
Rgds, and be careful!
Spaf
Hi Pyriel!
...................................................................................................................................
STOPS
We are working stop losses.
Generally the maximum loss we should consider is 5% to any one fund, and 2% to our total portfolio. Over a 2% loss in total funds hints that our strategy needs a correction.
In TSP the 1 - 2 day transfer time is also a hinderance. In addition stops can't be automatically set in your funds. So we have to deal with paper stops. I like starting on the conservative side and loosening the stop as needed.
So I'll start with 2% and use the C fund which corresponds to the S$P 500.
Roughly we are in the 1200 range. So 2% of 1200 = 24.
On May 27 when the market was at 1198 my stop was at 1174. Tuesday the market was down at 1191, stop was holding. Today Wednesday we had a rally to 1202, so I raise my stop to 1178, and proceed.
Remember this is a paper stop. If my stop gets broken, it's decision time. Do I take my profits and go. Is the stop too conservative. Maybe an isolated reaction or profit taking. How are the fundamentals doing? Never the less it's triggered a decision on my part!
Oil is at 54.60. Panic starts at 55. The upsurge in oil cut the top off of todays rally.
On days like this I may just put in a ITF to 100G for tomorrow and watch the AM market. If it starts ok I'll cancel the ITF. Having the ITF in will ensure a transaction. Not being able to effect one could be worse.
Rgds, and be careful!
Spaf
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Stops contd
Oil opened with a gap down. Indicating futher research. Found supplies were up so IFT was cancelled.
Going back to stop. S&P at 1204 - 24 = stop raised to 1180.
The stop will be a number catch decision marker. Stops are good to avoid futher losses or protect a profit.
Primary consideration will still be ensuring that the fundamentals and technicals stay in place.
Rgds, and be careful! Spaf
Stops contd
Oil opened with a gap down. Indicating futher research. Found supplies were up so IFT was cancelled.
Going back to stop. S&P at 1204 - 24 = stop raised to 1180.
The stop will be a number catch decision marker. Stops are good to avoid futher losses or protect a profit.
Primary consideration will still be ensuring that the fundamentals and technicals stay in place.
Rgds, and be careful!
Spaf
robo
Well-known member
imported post
50% long and looking for a pull back by Tuesday.
Some comments that supports Tom's concerns lately, and Spaf's stops..
So momentum continues to fuel the current rally, but with crude giving a technical buy signal that has a target well above the prior highs (over $60 a barrel), it seems unlikely that this rally has much farther to go. Nevertheless, you'd better not step in front of this freight train until it's clear that the brakes are being applied. In other words, stay long but keep moving up your trailing stops in order to protect against a violent reversal.”
At current levels we should all be very mindful of what we own. Most everything, even the core shorts, has all gotten a big lift from the recent rally. But right here at key technical resistance (Dow 10,600, S&P 1,200, Nasdaq 2,100) it usually pays to trim your portfolio of any laggards, wait for the next pullback and redeploy that capital into new market leaders. It’s what the pros do, moving money where it is best served and being better-positioned for the next phase of the rally.
If the TSP web site is up we can buy the pullbacks.............
50% long and looking for a pull back by Tuesday.
Some comments that supports Tom's concerns lately, and Spaf's stops..
So momentum continues to fuel the current rally, but with crude giving a technical buy signal that has a target well above the prior highs (over $60 a barrel), it seems unlikely that this rally has much farther to go. Nevertheless, you'd better not step in front of this freight train until it's clear that the brakes are being applied. In other words, stay long but keep moving up your trailing stops in order to protect against a violent reversal.”
At current levels we should all be very mindful of what we own. Most everything, even the core shorts, has all gotten a big lift from the recent rally. But right here at key technical resistance (Dow 10,600, S&P 1,200, Nasdaq 2,100) it usually pays to trim your portfolio of any laggards, wait for the next pullback and redeploy that capital into new market leaders. It’s what the pros do, moving money where it is best served and being better-positioned for the next phase of the rally.
If the TSP web site is up we can buy the pullbacks.............
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
[align=left] WW'S PROGRESS REPORT
Spaf wrote:
Market Trading..................................................The Best Trader is U!YES
If you want to be a trader, make money, You need to take charge of your funds. If you are making money your strategy is working. If you are losing money You need a new strategy!YES
Stop following these other folks!!!!!! Will do!
You got to make your own path. Listen to what other say and check it out! If it suits you fine! Other wise shuck it.
YOU GOTTA FOLLOW YOURSELF! Best trader there is, just gotta get U there. YES
Rule 1 = Capital preservation. Transfer to 100% G immediately! If you are unsure, or lossing money.
Sorry, I don't have the heart to do this. I am staying 50/50. I'm taking my clues from Ted Aronson, O'Neil, Bernstein and past hints from current members: rokid and coolhand (not to say there weren't others also) and 2 dozen more theorists on asset allocation and diversification. After I earn back a good portion of my losses I will increase my equity allocation.
Assignment No 1. Monday May 30 2005
Go to stockcharts.com download and print The Dow Theory (All 4 Parts). DONE
Assignment No 2.
In the binder on the lined paper, one per month. Make vertical lines for Dates, DJIA, NASD, S&P500, then the TSP funds G, F, C, S, I. and a section to the right titled Remarks. You can start for June. Set up all the days on the left, skip Sat/Sun. Use a horizontal line to divide weeks. Start tracking the closing prices of the market and thr TSP funds. I currently copy on a daily basis the G,F,C,S,F Fund returns since I joined TspTalk. I documented all your suggested bookmarks. There's one more I'm going to use to learn the charting stuff:[url]http://trader.snowseed.com/macd.htm[/url] I am also using your suggested TSPMoney site: http://www.tspmoney.com/
Assignment No 3.
Go to amazon.com and purchase Trading for Dummies by Michel Griffis and Lita Epstein. $16.49 new 14.00 used. Your option, but for +2.49 I'd get the new one. Have it sent ASAP.
Well, I currently have the following in my library so I'm going to pass on that one:
The Four Pillars of Investing by Bernstein
The Intelligent Asset Allocator by Bernstein
Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need by Larry E. Swedroe
All about Index Funds by Richard A. Ferri
The Bond Book by Annette Thau
Stock Market Profits by R. W. Schabacker
Bogle on Mutual Funds
Japanese Candlestick Charting by Steve Nison
Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably by Steven W. Poser
Point and Figure Charting by Dorsey, Thomas J.
Assignment No 4.
Read the book, highlighting and underling important items, suggest yellow highlighter and a red ball point. Make notes in the margins and on pages in the binder for each part and chapter. You should have a mini trading book when U get through for your binder, and the trading book for reference. Will get going reading what I already have.
Stay in touch. Keep me posted on UR progress! DOING presently
Now lets get going! The stock market is advancing. We ain't gonna lose no more money!!!!!!!!!! I've made $2K in the last 2 wks while on my own.
Rgds Spaf e-mail: Start studying!
Thank you so much for your help and your inspiration that is not only going to help me but many, many others. Keep it up.
[/align]
[align=left] WW'S PROGRESS REPORT
Spaf wrote:
Market Trading..................................................The Best Trader is U!YES
If you want to be a trader, make money, You need to take charge of your funds. If you are making money your strategy is working. If you are losing money You need a new strategy!YES
Stop following these other folks!!!!!! Will do!
You got to make your own path. Listen to what other say and check it out! If it suits you fine! Other wise shuck it.
YOU GOTTA FOLLOW YOURSELF! Best trader there is, just gotta get U there. YES
Rule 1 = Capital preservation. Transfer to 100% G immediately! If you are unsure, or lossing money.
Sorry, I don't have the heart to do this. I am staying 50/50. I'm taking my clues from Ted Aronson, O'Neil, Bernstein and past hints from current members: rokid and coolhand (not to say there weren't others also) and 2 dozen more theorists on asset allocation and diversification. After I earn back a good portion of my losses I will increase my equity allocation.
Assignment No 1. Monday May 30 2005
Go to stockcharts.com download and print The Dow Theory (All 4 Parts). DONE
Assignment No 2.
In the binder on the lined paper, one per month. Make vertical lines for Dates, DJIA, NASD, S&P500, then the TSP funds G, F, C, S, I. and a section to the right titled Remarks. You can start for June. Set up all the days on the left, skip Sat/Sun. Use a horizontal line to divide weeks. Start tracking the closing prices of the market and thr TSP funds. I currently copy on a daily basis the G,F,C,S,F Fund returns since I joined TspTalk. I documented all your suggested bookmarks. There's one more I'm going to use to learn the charting stuff:[url]http://trader.snowseed.com/macd.htm[/url] I am also using your suggested TSPMoney site: http://www.tspmoney.com/
Assignment No 3.
Go to amazon.com and purchase Trading for Dummies by Michel Griffis and Lita Epstein. $16.49 new 14.00 used. Your option, but for +2.49 I'd get the new one. Have it sent ASAP.
Well, I currently have the following in my library so I'm going to pass on that one:
The Four Pillars of Investing by Bernstein
The Intelligent Asset Allocator by Bernstein
Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need by Larry E. Swedroe
All about Index Funds by Richard A. Ferri
The Bond Book by Annette Thau
Stock Market Profits by R. W. Schabacker
Bogle on Mutual Funds
Japanese Candlestick Charting by Steve Nison
Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably by Steven W. Poser
Point and Figure Charting by Dorsey, Thomas J.
Assignment No 4.
Read the book, highlighting and underling important items, suggest yellow highlighter and a red ball point. Make notes in the margins and on pages in the binder for each part and chapter. You should have a mini trading book when U get through for your binder, and the trading book for reference. Will get going reading what I already have.
Stay in touch. Keep me posted on UR progress! DOING presently
Now lets get going! The stock market is advancing. We ain't gonna lose no more money!!!!!!!!!! I've made $2K in the last 2 wks while on my own.
Rgds
Spaf e-mail: Start studying!Thank you so much for your help and your inspiration that is not only going to help me but many, many others. Keep it up.
[/align]
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Hi WW!
You need to have some indicators and oscillators that you like and feel comfortable with. MA, MACD, CMF, etc. Remember that you risk paralysis by analysis by trying to follow too many inddicators. You have too many choises!
Be sure and check both daily and weekly charts. Sometimes the daily charts are too choppy where the weekly charts will smooth things out somewhat.
Good to see you got alittle library of reference books.
We are in a channel and trend right now. So make sure you got a trailing stop in your journal or spreadsheet.
Watch the fundamentals! Ever time Krude gets loose I get thejitters!
Glad to see ur making money! :^ Spaf
Hi WW!
You need to have some indicators and oscillators that you like and feel comfortable with. MA, MACD, CMF, etc. Remember that you risk paralysis by analysis by trying to follow too many inddicators. You have too many choises!
Be sure and check both daily and weekly charts. Sometimes the daily charts are too choppy where the weekly charts will smooth things out somewhat.
Good to see you got alittle library of reference books.
We are in a channel and trend right now. So make sure you got a trailing stop in your journal or spreadsheet.
Watch the fundamentals! Ever time Krude gets loose I get thejitters!
Glad to see ur making money! :^ Spaf
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Market Trading...................................................................The Best Trader is U!
Market Conditions, Market Trading, and Friends
Right now the market is in a primary movement of bullish. The market is somewhat skiddish because ofenergy, rates, and so called slow earnings. However,the market is advancing along a trend and channel. How long will the trend continue; only the market knows? The best funds for investments in TSP appearto be the S and C funds, at the present time. S can besome what volatile, and C more moderate.
Trailing paper stops should be set at about -2% of theclosing price, careful to observe an isolated down turn of 1-2 days, with your decision to hold or fold.
Remember capital preservation is Rule #1, and there is always tomorrow.
Listen and evaluate. Please use the fundamentals and technical analysis for optimum sucess and strategy.
In keeping our TSP funds intact, the best manager is always yourself.
Attachment: S&P as of today, with channel and trend notes.
Rgds, and be careful!Spaf
Market Trading...................................................................The Best Trader is U!
Market Conditions, Market Trading, and Friends
Right now the market is in a primary movement of bullish. The market is somewhat skiddish because ofenergy, rates, and so called slow earnings. However,the market is advancing along a trend and channel. How long will the trend continue; only the market knows? The best funds for investments in TSP appearto be the S and C funds, at the present time. S can besome what volatile, and C more moderate.
Trailing paper stops should be set at about -2% of theclosing price, careful to observe an isolated down turn of 1-2 days, with your decision to hold or fold.
Remember capital preservation is Rule #1, and there is always tomorrow.
Listen and evaluate. Please use the fundamentals and technical analysis for optimum sucess and strategy.
In keeping our TSP funds intact, the best manager is always yourself.
Attachment: S&P as of today, with channel and trend notes.
Rgds, and be careful!
Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Wonder Woman,
I knew you were smarter than initial introduction - can I borrow from your library?
Here I am trying to provide a modicum of guidance and you are way out in front of me. Hope you catch the next 3000 points - it will be memorable.
Thanks for your display on 5/30 - that was nice. Take care
Dennis
Wonder Woman,
I knew you were smarter than initial introduction - can I borrow from your library?
Here I am trying to provide a modicum of guidance and you are way out in front of me. Hope you catch the next 3000 points - it will be memorable.
Thanks for your display on 5/30 - that was nice. Take care
Dennis
Mike
Active member
imported post
Oops, I posted something meant for market talk.
I'll edit and post this as an advisory thing:
Watch the fundamentals! This means look at the economic data coming out and form a conclusion of where the economy is heading. If it is weakening, it's probably a good idea to think about getting more defensive. When a monthly payroll report comes in well below expectations, that's a danger sign (May's was weak). Inflation data is important as well, since higher inflation means Fed action is more likely in the future - and the market does not like rising interest rates.
For the most part, I try to post the important economic data in market talk when it comes out.
There are many on here who will preach technicals (chart-based movement involving resistance and support lines). I agree that technicals play a role, but this tends to only be a short-term one. Fundamentals are what drives the market over the long term. Good jobs growth, low inflation, solid manufacturing data, steady interest rates, solid earnings growth - these are what spawn and drive bull markets. On the other hand, when these things start to stagnate or worsen, that's when the market turns. It's no coincidence that the market topped in 2000 and then took a nosedive - that came as the economy began stagnating - and ultimately went into a recession late in 2000 / early '01.
Oops, I posted something meant for market talk.
I'll edit and post this as an advisory thing:
Watch the fundamentals! This means look at the economic data coming out and form a conclusion of where the economy is heading. If it is weakening, it's probably a good idea to think about getting more defensive. When a monthly payroll report comes in well below expectations, that's a danger sign (May's was weak). Inflation data is important as well, since higher inflation means Fed action is more likely in the future - and the market does not like rising interest rates.
For the most part, I try to post the important economic data in market talk when it comes out.
There are many on here who will preach technicals (chart-based movement involving resistance and support lines). I agree that technicals play a role, but this tends to only be a short-term one. Fundamentals are what drives the market over the long term. Good jobs growth, low inflation, solid manufacturing data, steady interest rates, solid earnings growth - these are what spawn and drive bull markets. On the other hand, when these things start to stagnate or worsen, that's when the market turns. It's no coincidence that the market topped in 2000 and then took a nosedive - that came as the economy began stagnating - and ultimately went into a recession late in 2000 / early '01.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
Sure you can borrow any of my books anytime.
Birchtree wrote:
You mean, like don't judge a book by its cover?
Sure you can borrow any of my books anytime.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Market Trading...................................................................The Best Trader is U!
The Last Part June 16, 2005
As of June 16th the market has had a steady climb to the S&P 1210 level. Will the advance continue or will a decline ensue?
Well only Martha Stewart knows!
Do we listen to the permibulls, the permibears, MarketWatch or what?????
What I do is to plan for the worst, but prepare for for the best:
1. Preparation: set your allocation strategy; aggressive or conservative. Pick the best funds and shuck the rest.
2. Plan for a correction/break down. Set (paper) stops. I use a 1% alert, 2% move. as trailing stops. i.e., S&P = 1200. Alert stop = -12 or 1188.Move= 1176. The alert stop is used to offset the IFT delay at TSP.
UPDATE: Now is the time to review Part 3 of The Dow Theory at: http://stockcharts.com
Ensure that your Fundamentals and Technical analysis indicators are up-to-date!
In fundamentals you may want to consider $BPNYA and $TRAN as a hedge in reporting trends.
In Technical analysis you should have $SPX
Use the gallery View charts for the big picture and the SharpCharts for analysis. In the SharpCharts you can change the price overlays simple moving averages from 50 to whatever. Try using a 5 day MA and a 30 day MA to get a trend.
Thats it for today, any comments? Appreciated! Rgds! Spaf
Market Trading...................................................................The Best Trader is U!
The Last Part June 16, 2005
As of June 16th the market has had a steady climb to the S&P 1210 level. Will the advance continue or will a decline ensue?
Well only Martha Stewart knows!
Do we listen to the permibulls, the permibears, MarketWatch or what?????
What I do is to plan for the worst, but prepare for for the best:
1. Preparation: set your allocation strategy; aggressive or conservative. Pick the best funds and shuck the rest.
2. Plan for a correction/break down. Set (paper) stops. I use a 1% alert, 2% move. as trailing stops. i.e., S&P = 1200. Alert stop = -12 or 1188.Move= 1176. The alert stop is used to offset the IFT delay at TSP.
UPDATE: Now is the time to review Part 3 of The Dow Theory at: http://stockcharts.com
Ensure that your Fundamentals and Technical analysis indicators are up-to-date!
In fundamentals you may want to consider $BPNYA and $TRAN as a hedge in reporting trends.
In Technical analysis you should have $SPX
Use the gallery View charts for the big picture and the SharpCharts for analysis. In the SharpCharts you can change the price overlays simple moving averages from 50 to whatever. Try using a 5 day MA and a 30 day MA to get a trend.
Thats it for today, any comments? Appreciated! Rgds!
Spaf
