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Tom.... Dec 3rd (Monday) the I fund topped at 15.09 and then slid down for 5 days. It was a sell all week. I transferred out. Too risky, when we have the other funds that are good performers. However, I have been getting some cautions on the S fund? Oh well!
Rgds :) Spaf
 
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Learning,

Shake it off, get back in the game! I'm feeling a little sorry (actually I'm self-medicating) for myself but what the hay I'm like you........................... LEARNING. Better to learn now than never at all. I'll get a better handle on investing thru the next year, then look out the next 20. Wooooohoooooo! No more setting in the G Fund here. Gota cut back on the little blue pills.:DJust kidd'n.
 
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Excellent explanation. Simple and to the point. Easy to read. Pictures too. Thanks again Spaf. :u
 
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[font="Times New Roman,Times,Times NewRoman"][size=+1]Lemming
[/size][/font][font="Times New Roman,Times,Times NewRoman"][/font][font="Times New Roman,Times,Times NewRoman"]Synaptomys spp.[/font]

[font="Times New Roman,Times,Times NewRoman"][size=-1]Lemmings are small mouse-like animals that live in the tundra.[/size][/font]
 
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Tom, I think last week's dollar rally was a weak bounce off the bottom - and was healthy, because it triggered an I fund pullback. Without foreign government intervention however, the dollar will continue to slide, and the quarter-point interest rate hike will do nothing to stop that. In other words, I think the I fund remains a solid play - though riskier due to currency considerations, obviously. The time to buy was last week - that's the best entry point you will likely get for a long time on the I fund (until it starts trending downward as we exit this bullish phase). My mistake was I pulled the trigger on adding shares a couple days too soon - at $14.93 instead of the bottom ($14.69) or near-bottom of $14.80-something. I still expect a healthy profit though - I believe the I fund will shoot past $15 per share again, unless some governments decide quickly that they need to prop up the dollar. I don't believe that action will happen 'til we see the euro push close to the $1.40 range - which may not happen until January or even February.
 
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Hey Mike!Good post :^. Hey Tom what do U think? Us Lemmings are awaiting?
 
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It happens to us all, Learning! I just happen to be on this side for a change, and will be on the other side plenty more times!;)

Sometimes you just catch a good wave, and are able to ride that baby all the way in.

Your wave WILL come, Brother, and when it does we all will be rejoicing with you... even if we lost big ourselves.

Because that's what it's all about- rejoicing with each other & encouraging one another.

God Bless:^
 
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Spaf wrote:
Hey Mike!Good post :^. Hey Tom what do U think? Us Lemmings are awaiting?
Click to expand...
Don't make me explain it again. ;) I'm taking the easy route with C and S until I see what the dollar is doing. Mike could be be right on. But right or wrong, I just don't want to take a chance in December. I'd like another 3% before EOY.
 
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Meanwhile, inflation appears to be well contained following a November Capacity Utilization reading of 77.6% (consensus 77.8%) and an Industrial Production figure of +0.3% that showed little change compared to expectations of +0.2%... However, with the Fed expected to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, to 2.25%, the market has remained cautious in the early going as it awaits a policy statement that is widely anticipated to restate ongoing rate hikes at a "measured" pace... As higher rates are typically supportive of a stronger dollar, the benchmark currency has shown relative strength despite the growing trade deficit...

It's my understanding that a weaker dollar is better for the deficit.....maybe no hike today? hmmmmmmmmmmmm
 
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mlk_man wrote:
It's my understanding that a weaker dollar is better for the deficit
Click to expand...

M_M....Don't know exactly, except to say everything here is "on sale" for the europeans.

Based on the current market and the latest advances (for stocks) the S fund is the best performer, followed by the C fund. The I (international) fund seems to have stumbled for December, so far.

In the current Bull market the best place to be right now would be theG,C, and S funds. The F fund (bonds), generally fall as interest rates rise. The I fund has a two fold risk of market+currency. The ratio of fund distribution depends on various factors, but in stocks 40%+ is aggressive, in my estimation (and needs close attention).

Rgds :) Spaf
 
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The I fund is the only stock fund to have a truly noticeable pull-back. The others had a one-day stumble, then they went back up, whereas the I dropped for 5 days before bouncing back. To me, this says the I fund remains bullish. I'll be holding onto my 35% allocation there for at least a few more days, as I think the dollar isn't going anywhere.
 
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Mike wrote:
I'll be holding onto my 35% allocation there for at least a few more days, as I think the dollar isn't going anywhere.
Click to expand...
Best to ya! I assume you have a stop inplace (for insurance)!
 
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Hey all, (Spaf) by your post I am aggresive again. I'm over the 45% mark in the market. :D No more sleep for me:l. If things go bad I will try not to do the Run Away Run Away again. That hurts:P

On serious note. What are the ideas out there about the Fed Releasing the minutes of the last meeting early? Jan 4th. This could hurt or help us. Any ideas whatyou are going to do as thedate approaches? I kind of like the thought of the early release. Just that it is another date to worry about.I suspect that there are some negative comments about the economyout there. I hope they edit a little. Of course I still have some finacial cowardice in me.:' I have no fear offighting just something where I am really out classed, (the market):oo LOL

Last. Those DOING GOOD without posting your returns, (amount of money) just the percentage of returns if youdont mind? Maybe give us an idea of how well your doing. I'm straight up. I believe I am ahead of the G, the F. I do not know about the rest. I doubt I am even near the stocks. I need to learn and figure the percentages so I can track better.

Happy for all that did great.:!
 
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Take a look at the long-term dollar v euro chart - go back a year, go back two years, go back 3 months - all of them point down.

Euro is up over 0.8% against the dollar thus far. If that holds, it basically erases all of last week's rally. :shock:

Learning - as of Monday's closing prices, I was up 8.2% on the year - and I missed out on two of the strongest-performing weeks in the market this year.
 
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Mike wrote:
Take a look at the long-term dollar v euro chart - go back a year, go back two years, go back 3 months - all of them point down.

Euro is up over 0.8% against the dollar thus far. If that holds, it basically erases all of last week's rally. :shock:

Learning - as of Monday's closing prices, I was up 8.2% on the year - and I missed out on two of the strongest-performing weeks in the market this year.
Click to expand...


Hey If your in the I fund sounds like good news at CNN.com, currency section. They say something about the dollar taking a tumble today. I will not go into the fund as with my luck it will change around just as I get in. The market is smarter then I.



8.2% and the year is not even up yet good job:^ Thanks. helps me get an idea where I am at and how to change game plans.
 
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EAFE just hit the high for the day - up 0.7%. :shock:

For anyone that cares, the S fund is now slightly ahead of the I fund on the year, thanks to last week's little snap-back (15.6% v 15.5%). C continues lagging way behind, at around 10% for the year.

I lag behind all three (that takes pure genius on my part, doesn't it). :P

Learning, I don't know if it's that good a job (missed a nice chunk of this bull run), but thanks. :^

My yearly target is 10%. With my witholding rate being so high, I can live comfortably on those returns if I get them every year. :D
 
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