Market Talk

[tsptalk]

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cowboy wrote:

Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^

Sorry I am getting back to you so late cowboy. I usually don't have access to the site during the day.

Bad news on the sentiment front. I will write about it in tonight's comments but the bullish percentage is up to 57% and the bears 20%. That is not good. I'm sure Thursday's drop changed that a some but 20% bears may take a little damage to fix.

If we knew that Wednesday maybe we could have lightened up. Now the S&P has pulled back to support (I hope) so I won't make a move just yet.

 

[tsptalk]

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lkatteng wrote:

Tom,

Would you please educate me more... are you refering to cover calls and cover puts ?Would you please explain how does it really works... Thanks you...

Leon

Leon -
You might have to remind me of what I said. :? Bulls/bears talk or was it about options?

Soryy,
Tom

 

[ou81200]

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One word for todays market. OUCH!!!

 

[Spaf]

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Thursday was about a three day set back, a hefty drop, that was not expected. Jitters ahead of tomorrow's September employment report spooked the
market, plus a record close for oil with low inventories, and sluggish
retail sales (with higher energy costs) also weighed in on the decline. I hope the engine restarts.

 

[tsptalk]

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ou81200 wrote:

One word for todays market. OUCH!!!

The only good news is that it stopped at the support level (1130). We need to rally Friday or that theory will be down the drain.

 

[Spaf]

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That was a long red candlestick Thursday.......Wow!
Don't worry. Pres. Bush has a fix in to lower the price of oil! He is pushing to use smaller barrels!
Well, tomorrow is the October 8th and as cowboy has said a "definite maybe"!

 

[Mike]

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With oil crossing $52, and with a jobs report looming, I'd say yesterday is precisely what is supposed to happen in an overbought market. That should scare some of those bulls back into bear mode, which is good.

Here's to a positive report and green across the board! :^

 

[tsptalk]

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The news followed the market. Jobs report disappoints w/ jobs 96,000 added. So much for the rumors of 250,000.

 

[tsptalk]

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I am stumped. The bad jobs report was initially greeted by the emotional "dumb" money withselling but the Dow isnow green. There are reasons for me to bail here and reasons to stick with the plan and stay invested. It's hard to make a call.

With jobs down, interest rate fears are waning and that should help smaller stocks. The dollar is also way down this morning on the news which at least temporarily helps the I fund.

No moves just yet. Stay posted.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Mike]

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Ugh. This could prompt the market to resume its cycling.

I'll wait a few days and watch things closely - it might be wise to bail out at some point here and wait 'til the seemingly inevitable post-election take-off. :?

 

[Dakota]

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I believe next week is comeback week. I'm a little disapointed in thurs and things dont look so well today 25g 25c 25s 25i

Good luck all ya'll:#

 

[Spaf]

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Yesterday the market closed at 1131 (S&P). My bear-bull indicator places us in marginal territory 1080 . . ..^. . .1160.
We have been in the woods since Feburary. Late Sept, early Oct looked like the market might break thebearish cyclic trends. It seems to want too, but the economic conditions keep holding it down (oil, jobs, earnings, weather, etc). This 6 month period could be the best time for the market and TSP. But for now,we sit in a state of somewhat uncertainty.

 

[Spaf]

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Afternoon market reports will deteriorate to far. Prices will go under the moving average (20 days) and the Parabolic SAR sould signal a stop level above the current price.

Will be transfering to the G fund 100%

TSP operations will be down monday. Unsure when the transfer will take effect.

Market weather is too bad for flying at this time. Will wait for better days!

 

[ou81200]

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Thing is---

With my luck, as soon as I bail out, the market will recover. After two down days, there has to be some correction. I may move out of the I fund, but will definately stay in stocks.:^

 

[nnuut]

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Well, Well, Well See what happens when you plan, get expert advise, and are pretty well sure your gonna make a little money. Based on every thing I read the Jobs report was estimated to be 150,000 or greater. So I'm in on Friday-- Bam, Bam that hurt! :*Gotta do better than this! Still in stocks, maybe it will jump Monday, but I don't think so?It's good when it's good!:U

 

[Spaf]

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Could it be that on Thursday the market knew that the job report pending on Friday was going to be very low (96K), while others were saying jobs were going to be on track (133K)? Kind of like what Tom says, the market preceeded the news! Oil at record height of 53.31. Kind of like having your pocket picked!

Well I'm back at (at, not, in) the G fund. However, TSP is closed Monday. I'll be in stocks like it or not. The transfer will take place COB Tuesday,so if things look green I can cancell. I cancelled once before, when I shouldnt have done it, didn't want to believe the system, had a gut feeling. Now as I look back, I think it was the hot sauce.

 

[tsptalk]

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nnuut wrote:

Well, Well, Well See what happens when you plan, get expert advise, and are pretty well sure your gonna make a little money. Based on every thing I read the Jobs report was estimated to be 150,000 or greater. So I'm in on Friday-- Bam, Bam that hurt! :*Gotta do better than this! Still in stocks, maybe it will jump Monday, but I don't think so?It's good when it's good!:U

nnuut - I'm not sure what your allocation was Friday, but I'm pretty relieved that I had a little hedge with that 50% in the I fund. If youalso were 50% S and 50% I, you maynot have done as badly as you think. On Friday that 50/50allocation lost only .06%. That's because the bad economic news that killed the U.S. funds, also killed the dollar and gave the I fund a 10 cent gain. The S fund was down 11 cents so all in all not too bad considering. Even Thursday the I fund lost only 2 cents. And considering we are coming off a 7% rally, again notbad. If you were 100% S or C unfortuanately you were hit harder but I suspect those funds will rebound more.

We'll get'em next week.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

We'll get'em next week.

I would hope thats true, but the soft patch is still lingering! The eco (oil, jobs, gains) problem remains to be fixed. TSP isn't helping with their closing on Monday. I don't see a good weather forecast! My system is indicating "sell". However,I have a time lag, that only lets me see the trends. So far, the trends do not seem to be good, the sentiment does not seem favorable. It's kind of like being one step behind. Right now I'm in a state of uncertainity. I'm sitting on a transfer to the G fund, but I have to wait till Tuesday to make a decision to go, or cancell. "Next week" is too uncertain! I need a better meter, to check the risk, given the recent history of the market ; cycles andslow bearish downtrend. Right now I am playing for caution, thevolitile soft patch is still a reality, at least for now. I wish I could be moreup beat , but the facts leave a measure of uncertainty that seems to me to over shadow the risk of being in stocks at th present time. Tomorrow, may be a different story, based on analysis andsentiment! However, I don't have cystal ball for tomorrow!

 

[Mike]

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We're all stuck where we're at 'til the end of Tuesday anyway. My payday allocations are 100% G, so I have that as a hedge (I'm still young enough for that to be about 2% of my overall Thrift account).

A weak jobs report might do us some good, based on what Tom said elsewhere with the contrary market responses following these reports (up long-term after weak reports, down after strong ones). Still, in the short term, I expect some hits before we get another rally.

 

[nnuut]

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Tom, I was reluctant to go 100% Friday, was 20% "C" and 20% "S" still took a hit, but not as bad as it could have been. I was watching the Dollar againstthe EURO and didn't see a drop in the dollar to justify going into the "I" fund. Where do you get your info on the strength of the dollar? If I had the correct info I may have made a better choice. I noticed you have beendivided between the "I" and the "S" for a while and the "I" has been steadly edging up for a couple of weeks, thought it might be ready for a down.:U. Good call on your part.:^

I'm still in with the 40% (no choice ). What about next week, do you think we are going to get a bounce or more of the same?:%