Market Talk

[nnuut]

imported post

I think it will continue this basic upward trend until the oil companys get their fill $. :UMost of the problems with oilappears to bespeculative, but the price continues to go up even if the supply is ample.Reminds me of weather forcasting. If a frog farts in Chile it changes the weather patterns. You think that Gas is high in the US, buy a literin Europe. Someone is making big bucks and it's not us.:*Yes it will go down, when, I have no idea. :%

 

[Spaf]

imported post

A check of market sentiment for today indicated a concern for profit warnings. A lot of the comments were somewhat negative. This generally gave a unsettled attitude. I think Tom was right, the market is resting.

Oil is going to be a problem until the supply and demand has a cushion. There is a greed factor involved, which doesn't help us. It was kind of neat the way the S&I funds offset each other yesterday so you didn't take a smack on US funds.

My stats (MA+P-SAR) indicate to stay the course in S&I, for now.I just wish the sentiment was better!

 

[nnuut]

imported post

I've been looking for indicators of what might happen with the Jobs Report or oil on Friday:

:^+ Treasurys prices fell for a second straight day Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns that Friday's payrolls report may illustrate a strengthening economy in September.

:%+/- Investors looking to Friday's employment report as a catalyst for a fresh move to the upside.

:i+ The market is trying to disconnect itself from the daily price movements of oil," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach.

o+/_ "It is trying to focus on a new catalyst and that new catalyst could be stronger economic activity and that couldshow up in this week's employment numbers," he said.

:^? TOM,The rumor I am hearing is 75,000 over the 175,000 estimate and upward revisions for prior months. If this is true, I hope it's not too high to create interest rate hike fears again.:h

:end:Oil ?? Who knows? It doesn't seem to hold the same price range for long and the Market seems to not pay to much attention lately.

Looking more and more like Friday is my day to get in. I'm no expert so use your own discretion. It's a definitemabye that stocks will go GREEN? :*What? Thank You?

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Right on nnuut! It's a absolute possibility!

 

[ou81200]

imported post

Hello Guys---

So far this week, inspite of the news, the market has been holding its own. All we need is a catylyst to get another run. I hope it is this Friday.

 

[TheProphet]

imported post

We are in the same boat... S will perform better that C this week according with the seasonality charts S&P versus Nasdaq... GREEN this week... Good Luck on your investments... :^

 

[ou81200]

imported post

The Dow took off the last hour today. Seemed to me like alot of investors covering their short positions. Any input???

 

[Mike]

imported post

What does the Nasdaq have to do with S or C? C is the S&P. S is a small cap index fund (not the Nasdaq).

Today, the C fund was up 0.09, S was up 0.10, and I was flat.

Oil settled above $52 today on ... fear. Again. The US gov't is now saying that gulf of mexico oil production won't be fully restored for another 45-90 days. :?

... and the market went up anyway. :^

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

ou81200 wrote:

The Dow took off the last hour today. Seemed to me like alot of investors covering their short positions. Any input???

Yeah. Everytime the bears think the market is ready to turn over, the market moves up again and the short covering rally exaggerates it. It's the trap I keep saying the bears are getting caught in. Since sentiment has been so low lately, this type of thing can continue for a while. It's also why I keep recommending buying any pullbacks.They should be pretty tame.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

What does the Nasdaq have to do with S or C? C is the S&P. S is a small cap index fund (not the Nasdaq).

The Nasdaq the stocks of smaller companies than the big S&P indices but it also has large tech stocks. The correlation between S and the Nasdaq isn't great because of those big techs whose movement has a bigeffect on that index.

 

[cowboy]

imported post

Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^

 

[debrac]

imported post

what does bulls vs bears mean to a novice/? can you break it down in simple terms pls

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

cowboy wrote:

Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^

That comes out on Thursdays. I'll try to post it tomorrow if it's available early enough.

Debrac wrote:

what does bulls vs bears mean to a novice/? can you break it down in simple terms pls

Debrac -
bulls vs. bears compareshow many people say they are bullish (think the market is going to go higher) vs. how many people are say they are bearish (think the market is going to go lower).

This is a sentiment indicatorthat tells us theattitudes of investors. It is a contrarian indicator in that the more people that think the market will go up (bulls), the more likely it is to go down. The more thatpeople think it is going to go down (bears) the more likely the market will go up. The closer the bearish percentage is to 40% the better for the market.

I'll explain why this is so in another post . Just know that it is a strong indicator. One caveat is that what investors say in these polls may not be what they are doing. So there is another indicator that tracks what these investors are doing (i.e. buying or selling). It is better to act on what they are doing rather than what they are saying.

I'll go further for those of you now saying, but if the market goes up, doesn't that mean there are more people buying than selling (and viceversa). It's usually not the case. When someone buys a stock, someone else is selling it. Where they meetis the agreed upon price. If you have one savvy investor with big bucks buying 100,000 shares of XYZ for $25 each and 100 smaller investors selling 1000 shares at $25. Mr big bucks is out numbered 100-1 butMr big bucks is probably making the best deal as he is dealing with 100 emotional investors bailing out - probably near the bottom.

Hope that helps.
Tom

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Mike wrote:

My I fund holdings basically nullified the S fund loss today. That's why they say to diversify.

Mike posted this on October 6, 2004, and he is basically right. When US mkts drop and Euro markets rise, they can off set. My approach is when there is an upturn in the market, is to diversify between S & I, and Tom is right to use the I fund when the dollar is low. The problem is to understand the big picture of stats. We are in a bearish trending market with cycles and cautious sentiment. The cycles have varied from forty or more days, thus suggecting a moving average (MA) of 20 days or so. As of September the TSP funds indicate: C=1.11, S=3.92, I=2.05. In the last 15 days: C=1.76, S=3.66. I=2.47. If 3.66+2.47=6.13 then x=3.16x100/6.13=52. Thus investment betwenS&I should be 52%S, 48%I. However, 30% I fund is the maximum for me due to other countries risk/money, and my own feelings.

We need to develope our own strategy, personally! We are all in different positions, all novices, and all in ado-it-yourself savingsplan that is really not a plan! At least I haven't seen "the plan". There are no goverenment "guru's" telling us how to invest, consider the liability, if there was one!

My talk on this web site is only my opinion, based on my stats and my feeling of mkt sentiment, not advice! TSP members are responsible for their own accounts in investing. As they say we don't have crystal ball. But, we do have this site to talk about it, and learn!

Have a good day, and be careful out there!

 

[Mike]

imported post

... and one day later, the C and S gains offset the flat I fund that did nothing.

... all of this with oil around $52.

 

[TheProphet]

imported post

Tom,

Would you please educate me more... are you refering to cover calls and cover puts ?Would you please explain how does it really works... Thanks you...

Leon

 

[TheProphet]

imported post

I think the I fund is in a bubble that sooner or later will burst... the dollar will not go low forever... they do not going to be giving free dollars on the strees of europe anymore... specially they not being our good friends anymore... Iprefer S fund it will give me more peace of mind... :zz

 

[TheProphet]

imported post

The market has become aligned and paralleled to the oil price... the higher the oil the higher the market... inflation raise the S&P... companies value goes up... kind of contrary of what we are just to... or had seem lately... high oil... low market... :*

 

[Dakota]

imported post

Thanks cowboy, Im just an okie waiting to see :!if the sooners or the pokes can go. I like watching your comments( all ya'll) as we cowboys say. thanks

 

[cowboy]

imported post

I a m transfering my 100% to S today as I think the S will rebound tomorrow. If not then the funds may sell off.