Market Talk

[Spaf]

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In mid to late September the market had a upward stall at the S&P 1131, and started another cycle down. However, that cycle was interrupted at 1102 on Seprember 28th. A new upward trend developed going into the Q4, and currently 1131.

Q4 and January are generally good months. Factors that could hinder market growth now come from earnings, employment, and oil. The big picture of 2004 places the market in bearish cycles. Will Q4 be a break out? Possible, if the factors mentioned stay in check. We have a delicate favorable trend of gains that needs to be watched with caution. If factors stay controlled, market sentiment would improve. We will just have to wait and see.

For the S-fund (^DWCP) the 20 day moving average and the parabolic SAR (for now) are under the price, (indicating to go long). Historical seasonality charts (Q4+Jan.) look good.

Stats + sentiment = favorable.Pending reports + oil = caution.

Currently 70%S, and 30%I (fingers crossed).

Have a great day. :^But, be careful! Rgds

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

According to the stocktraders almanac there are

six good months and six bad months...

Year trend... Nov 1 thru May 1 is bullish

and May 1 thru Nov 1 is bearish...

They also adjust them with the MACD indicator...

so I agree with you... we are moving into the best six

months of the year... I am planning to profit from it...

:^

 

[Spaf]

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Ikatteng Hi!

We could use a good 6 months. Pls feel free to share tidbits from your almanac. I like almanacs!
FYI I have attached a yahoo chart of the S&P for 12 months. Noting that if you/we/? held stock, the first of the year equals about where we are today (the red line). We have gone through 3 up and down cycles (green V's). If you sold high and bought low there was some gains to be made.
Here's hoping that the cycles are ending, your almanac, and the other seasonality factors take over market sentiment, and someone keeps a lid on oil.

 

[Mike]

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S&P has broken through the 1130 level. This is very good news. :^

 

[cowboy]

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Cowboy looks at market, feels good with the way things are going. Will go 100% I effective Tuesday and will get out of the F fund. My gut feeling is I is lagging on the bounce and maybe go higher on Tuesday, of course I have been wrong before. Markets are all on a rise and hitting newlevels very good sign!I will see if my gun barrel is bentin the next couple days my F fund move didn't work and I blaimedit onmy aim!

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

Send me your email and I will sent you copy of the monthly news letter I received from the stocktraders almanac...

My email is: Leon.Kattengell@us.army.mil my home email is ekattengell@msn.com

Leon

 

[Spaf]

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LK
Thanks, home e-mail: marq457@mail.com also listed on this site in Members.

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf, We may be moving into the DomeHouse... Leon

 

[nnuut]

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What about the Jobs Report friday? Anyone have any ideas as to what the results will be? could be a great chance to "get out":l or "get in",:u it's one on me. Hate to miss a Opportunityand get burned.

 

[tsptalk]

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nnuut wrote:

What about the Jobs Report friday? Anyone have any ideas as to what the results will be? could be a great chance to "get out":l or "get in",:u it's one on me. Hate to miss a Opportunityand get burned.

The rumor I am hearing is 75,000 over the 175,000 estimate and upward revisions for prior months. If this is true, I hope it's not too high to create interest rate hike fears again.

 

[nnuut]

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I'm back in "G" Tuesday, Pluck, Pluck the NNUUT is chicken. Don't want my feathers burnedo. Think there might be a pull back.Thinking aboutgetting back in Friday if I hear some more good news, but not too goooood! Decisions, decisions.:%

 

[Spaf]

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Well!

Nnuut you could be right. For now I'll cautiously stay in stocks, there could be apull back or profit taking (a fact of the market). But, the market has shot up a bit. The stats, the moving averages and indicators are good. Sentiment is the caution. Oil will continue to be a driver, earnings will be a driver, and so will economics. We are not out of the woods. I don't like bailing out of the plane just yet, the upturn has given us some altitude! There will be some down days, but the up days so far look pretty good, we have broken through some resistance, hopefully. Just when I say something like this, I wind up eating my words, well I've got my fingers crossed!


LK thanks for the AI Newsletter! Really neat! Your newsletter calendar did have a caution, I think would or could be a tidbit warning to all superstitious investors: Mark your calendar October 19, 1987 CRASH Dow down 22.6%. :end:... Hows that for a tidbit?

 

[nnuut]

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Guess it's not such a good idea to try and get so cute with the market going on an upward trend, but don't want to lose these gains.:? July really hurt me bad, just trying to get up to the level I was at in January! Bad to be in a hole because of a few bad decisions!:*I fell into the same trap that Tom fell into.Come on GREEN>

 

[TheProphet]

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Great ! I will be on 100% on S till Friday I will be100 %G Monday and Tuesday and be back 100% on S Wed... I do not think the interest rate will go up because is to close to election... It may right after... but not before... :^

 

[nnuut]

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Hey Ikatteng !! That was my plan--------------> if things don't change. :XHopeCrude drops a little friday morning. :l$$$$$$$$ Let it be GREEN!

 

[Dakota]

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hey, let me know!! My e-mail is tdm432@msn.com

 

[Dakota]

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this thing is killijng me:*

 

[cowboy]

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Dakota wrote:

this thing is killijng me:*

LOL!By the way Dakota I live in the warmer part of the Sioux handle you use!

 

[Spaf]

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October 5, 2004

Item 1. I needed a faster response for TSP daily returns, TSPMoney has this, but slow: 8-9 PM sometimes. Cowboy showed me a page at TSP.gov (Rtns and share prices/share prices) that post the returns more promptly! FYI.

Item 2. When Intnl mkts do good and US mkts fizzle. The returns can somewhat be equalized (as today). Thus if 100%S is felt to be too risky, and the $ is low, mix the funds ie x%S and x%I.

Item 3. Today the Dow skids in oil, just reinforces that oil and stocks don't mix. Keep wondering when they will get the rigs in the gulf back in production?

Bee careful out there!

 

[Mike]

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Spaf, I heard that they expect to get it back up to full production in the gulf by the end of the month.

My I fund holdings basically nullified the S fund loss today. That's why they say to diversify.

Does anyone else get the feeling that oil is the new "tech bubble"? The prices are continuing to move up on speculation alone. Every story I've read indicates that traders fear a supply disruption. However, if the price was following actual supply and demand, it would be considerably lower than this. I don't know when or where oil will top out, but I expect a major correction at some point - back to $35 / barrel.