Market Talk

[Mike]

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Az, that was NOT funny man!

I guess for the next week, we're all buy and holders.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike

Just holders!!!

Wednesday: Coca Cola Fizzled!

Since The start of this month (September) the market has posted 7 days up and 3 days down. Moving averages for 20 days are still ok! The temporary closing of TSP leaves us at the mercy of the market, but it was trending up.

Cinderella wrote:" in my opinion it is not sound long-term investing to use your IRA as if it were an ATM". I have recorded your comment as a classic, damn near fell out of the chair laughing! Please give a warning so that I can put a pillow behind my chair!

Ivan as Martha would say is not a good thing. Will see what Tom and member comments are, but as you imply, for now, good, bad or whatever, we are stuck!

 

[Cinderella]

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Spaf wrote:

Cinderella wrote: " in my opinion it is not sound long-term investing to use your IRA as if it were an ATM".  I have recorded your comment as a classic, damn near fell out of the chair laughing! Please give a warning so that I can put a pillow behind my chair!


 

Feel free to remember the quote and use it.... lol

I was just trying to make my point that a person needs to have some cash on hand. Sometimes, a difference of opinion is met with a great deal of resistance on this board.

I am glad that a few people appreciate my "light-hearted spin" on these serious topics.

 

[Spaf]

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The TSP has neen non operational since September 14, and they expect restoration no later than Monday Sept 20th. I and others did not realize that the system would shut down. One member indicated knowingof this possibility, transfered to the G fund, but didn't tell others, till after the fact of the TSP close down.

The web site for TSPMoney.com has likewise been non operational since about September 13th.

The world is full of good and bad folks, some are financial advisors and some just want to be. Be careful, check, and evaluate what you hear. Be Informed!

If you hear something you don't understand, find out about it! If someone discusses moving averages, then find out about it! ie, see: http://www.incrediblecharts.com, Or see: http://www.investopedia.com

There are serious things to consider: What is the volatility of the TSP securities fund, the bond fund and the 3 stock funds. Buy and hold investing refers to long term investing (10 or more years). Contributions to your TSP account are basically dollar cost averaging. Are you aware of how compounding affects your investments? Do you know what are the expense ratios for the TSP funds, and how they compare to other funds? The historical returns for stocks is 11%, bonds 5.2%. Historical inflation was 4%, average inflation was 3.1%. To manage your retirement portfolio was 1.2%. And the real consideration is that a withdrawal rate of over 4% is generally to high for a retirement portfolio.

Thus if I wanted TSP transfered to XYZ retirement account, and I wanted $1,000 a month and I could take out 4% per year, I would need $300,000 in the account. For today. Remember 11% is the average, minus 4% inflation leaves 8%. You have to factor in a cost of living allowance (4%) and the result seems to be 4% is about all you can withdraw. A retirement account should consider expense ratios of the funds. The lower the better!

For buy and hold, this site has some good recommendations in long term investing. For those of us that chose to time the market, there are some good recommendations (and some not so good). I will say that the 20 day moving average, 1/2 of the 30-40 day cycles gives a fairly good picture of possible entry and exit actions. The 2003 bullish market was fairly stable for a buy and hold option, however since from about Feburary 2004 the market has been cyclic (and somewhat bearish) indicating that market timing could produce some gains, if you kept up with the cycles's and acted accordingly. RE: attached chart (yellow/orange=cycles, Green=bull, red=20dayMA, and blue=S&P500):

 

[Cinderella]

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Spaf wrote:

The world is full of good and bad folks, some are financial advisors and some just want to be.  Be careful, check, and evaluate what you hear.  Be Informed!

If you hear something you don't understand, find out about it!  If someone discusses moving averages, then find out about it!  ie, see: http://www.incrediblecharts.com,  Or see: http://www.investopedia.com

There are serious things to consider:  What is the volatility of the TSP securities fund, the bond fund and the 3 stock funds.  Buy and hold investing refers to long term investing (10 or more years).  Contributions to your TSP account are basically dollar cost averaging.  Are you aware of how compounding affects your investments?

 

 

Excellent points to consider and websites to help find the answers to questions.

Spaf, do you receive the weekly review of the Dow, S&P500, Gold, and major indices offered at www.incrediblecharts.com ?

I would like to read some posts on how compounding affects our TSP.

 

[Spaf]

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Sorry no subscription. There are a lot of good free sites.

See: stockchart.com Go to Free Chart. Go to Gallery View. Type in $SPX, and hit go.

Compounding makes money grow, it gets greeener (works great on mutual funds). Just the opposite of using IRA as a ATM! See: investopedia.com, type in what U want and it will give a definition.

 

[Mike]

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Yay for up days. We just erased most of Thursday's pullback (at least on the S&P).

 

[Spaf]

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Thanks neirbob, tsptalk, M_M, azanon, MT. Cinderella, be careful with them charts, they will dazzle ya, look at the big picture! PS: It didn't hurt to hard when I fell out of my chair! Mike we can close with your noted remarks "Yay for up days"! Hope you all have plenty of up days!

 

[tsptalk]

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Cinderella wrote:

I would like to read some posts on how compounding affects our TSP.

Albert Einstein said "compound interest"was the human race's greatest invention.