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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Had to eat lunch and ck out a boat!
Internet stuff: ---> http://www.learnthenet.com/english/glossary/access.htm
Had to eat lunch and ck out a boat!
Internet stuff: ---> http://www.learnthenet.com/english/glossary/access.htm
teknobucks
Active member
Oceansideguy
New member
imported post
Hey Thanks Techno for the article on the fed. Yeah, it appears likely the fed will raise interest rates to give leverage to others to perhaps lower it later, and to protect the dollar. Moreover, I think the fed wants to kill the housing bubble, or at least to stop it. They probably guess that the danger from a popped housing bubble down the road is greater than Katrina.
Well for those of us in the I fund, I wonder what to take from this. In either event, the US economy will slow. I doubt it will push us into recession because the gulf coast is a relatively small segment of the economy. However, it will undoutedly lead to inflationary pressure due to the coast of so many building supplies and oil products (transportation) needed to rebuild.
In either event, I think the inflationary pressure will be greater than the fed move, and the dollar will still be under pressure.
Opinions?
Hey Thanks Techno for the article on the fed. Yeah, it appears likely the fed will raise interest rates to give leverage to others to perhaps lower it later, and to protect the dollar. Moreover, I think the fed wants to kill the housing bubble, or at least to stop it. They probably guess that the danger from a popped housing bubble down the road is greater than Katrina.
Well for those of us in the I fund, I wonder what to take from this. In either event, the US economy will slow. I doubt it will push us into recession because the gulf coast is a relatively small segment of the economy. However, it will undoutedly lead to inflationary pressure due to the coast of so many building supplies and oil products (transportation) needed to rebuild.
In either event, I think the inflationary pressure will be greater than the fed move, and the dollar will still be under pressure.
Opinions?
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I agree with the previous assessment, however there are some political things underfoot which may shake up economic and fiscal matters.
1) word is that a tax bill may be introduced in Congress to increase the gasoline tax by $1 per gallon. It is designed to both raise revenues and curtail its consumption ... the latter of which automobile manufacturers have eschewed for decades.
2) Iran insists that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for its electricity needs. The Western world's strategy to keep that from happen is to impose trade sanctions. In essence,the benefit to the re-establishment of production in the Gulf from the effects of Katrina will be negated by such sanctions.
I agree with the previous assessment, however there are some political things underfoot which may shake up economic and fiscal matters.
1) word is that a tax bill may be introduced in Congress to increase the gasoline tax by $1 per gallon. It is designed to both raise revenues and curtail its consumption ... the latter of which automobile manufacturers have eschewed for decades.
2) Iran insists that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for its electricity needs. The Western world's strategy to keep that from happen is to impose trade sanctions. In essence,the benefit to the re-establishment of production in the Gulf from the effects of Katrina will be negated by such sanctions.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Gents - here is my take
The interest-rate backdrop has implications for stock-market sectors. Keep an eye on financial stocks, narrow spreads between short and long-term interest rates have kept the sector's performance in check in recent months. That could change for the better in the months ahead, especially for the banks, where wider yield spreads usually translate into higher profits. There's a chance that the yield curve will be steeper in the monyhs ahead as the Federal government sells debt to help finance Gulf Coast reconstruction efforts. That makes a prolonged inversion of the yield curve much-less likely to occur than was the case a few weeks ago. The C fund has 23% financial exposure, the I fund has a 24.8% financial exposure. The election win by the LDP reinforces positive fundamental trends that have been developing in Japan for some time, and it greatly improves the likelihood (is that a real word) that the government will implement reforms to help those trends flourish in the future. That suggests that the Nikkei index's recent uptrend has further to go. Don't worry about the dollar - I want it to fall to help our exports.
With the rise in energy prices likely to slow consumer demand, the longer run trend in Core CPI still points to the downside. We will import Canadian lumber as well as Alberta tar sand crude oil, we will import Mexican cement as well as a large labor pool of their workers. And least but certainly not last my friend yellow back Jimmy Carter will be helping to build homes for the welfare classes. I lied, he is not my friend.
Most people don't remember what a great peanut farmer Jimmy was - but I'll never for get the yellow back. He turned me into a born again Republican.
Dennis
Gents - here is my take
The interest-rate backdrop has implications for stock-market sectors. Keep an eye on financial stocks, narrow spreads between short and long-term interest rates have kept the sector's performance in check in recent months. That could change for the better in the months ahead, especially for the banks, where wider yield spreads usually translate into higher profits. There's a chance that the yield curve will be steeper in the monyhs ahead as the Federal government sells debt to help finance Gulf Coast reconstruction efforts. That makes a prolonged inversion of the yield curve much-less likely to occur than was the case a few weeks ago. The C fund has 23% financial exposure, the I fund has a 24.8% financial exposure. The election win by the LDP reinforces positive fundamental trends that have been developing in Japan for some time, and it greatly improves the likelihood (is that a real word) that the government will implement reforms to help those trends flourish in the future. That suggests that the Nikkei index's recent uptrend has further to go. Don't worry about the dollar - I want it to fall to help our exports.
With the rise in energy prices likely to slow consumer demand, the longer run trend in Core CPI still points to the downside. We will import Canadian lumber as well as Alberta tar sand crude oil, we will import Mexican cement as well as a large labor pool of their workers. And least but certainly not last my friend yellow back Jimmy Carter will be helping to build homes for the welfare classes. I lied, he is not my friend.
Most people don't remember what a great peanut farmer Jimmy was - but I'll never for get the yellow back. He turned me into a born again Republican.
Dennis
imported post
Carter did fairly well imo. He was the one that started the strategic oil reserve; the airlines were de-regulated under his watch too.
He and Congress at that time still made attempts to balance the fed budget, and not resort to excessive debt to stimulate growth ... if that could be considered a feasable way to grow.
Of course now it has gotten way out of control with a borrow and spend policy that is about as irresponsible as giving a stackfull of platinum credit cards to someone who has just cleared bankruptcy.
And he didn't entangle the country in any foreign adventures costing billions of dollars, thousands of lives and -- if not the good will -- then at least not the ill-will and threating presence of an occupying power in one country and whose troops also sit on the border of another country that it considers as a memberof the "axis of evil".
Ithas become increasing apparent that Saddam Hussein --our puppetagainst Iran in 1988 --was more accurate with the facts and capabilities of his regime that what we were told by our own president concerning our country's involvement in this present "adventure".
Carter did fairly well imo. He was the one that started the strategic oil reserve; the airlines were de-regulated under his watch too.
He and Congress at that time still made attempts to balance the fed budget, and not resort to excessive debt to stimulate growth ... if that could be considered a feasable way to grow.
Of course now it has gotten way out of control with a borrow and spend policy that is about as irresponsible as giving a stackfull of platinum credit cards to someone who has just cleared bankruptcy.
And he didn't entangle the country in any foreign adventures costing billions of dollars, thousands of lives and -- if not the good will -- then at least not the ill-will and threating presence of an occupying power in one country and whose troops also sit on the border of another country that it considers as a memberof the "axis of evil".
Ithas become increasing apparent that Saddam Hussein --our puppetagainst Iran in 1988 --was more accurate with the facts and capabilities of his regime that what we were told by our own president concerning our country's involvement in this present "adventure".
imported post
The most shocking discovery about the CEO of the most powerful nation on the earth at that time was that Jimmy Carter was often busy scheduling whitehouse tennis courts. For some reason, the man was obsessed with bickering amongst his staff about who gets to play when. He made the axiom engineers make bad managers a truly classic Harvard Business School case study for sure.
The most shocking discovery about the CEO of the most powerful nation on the earth at that time was that Jimmy Carter was often busy scheduling whitehouse tennis courts. For some reason, the man was obsessed with bickering amongst his staff about who gets to play when. He made the axiom engineers make bad managers a truly classic Harvard Business School case study for sure.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Quips,
We are sitting on both borders of the Iranian dogs - we will squeeze the poop out of them if they try and build an atomic bomb. Our infrastructure is basically in place for an air war if they so desire to ignore the rest of the world and continue their errant behavior. If you don't believe in Allah you die.
Quips,
We are sitting on both borders of the Iranian dogs - we will squeeze the poop out of them if they try and build an atomic bomb. Our infrastructure is basically in place for an air war if they so desire to ignore the rest of the world and continue their errant behavior. If you don't believe in Allah you die.
imported post
Quips---
I must respectfully disagree with most of what you say about Jimmy Carter. Not only was the Iranian hostage done during his watch. But the military operation to rescue was also. That turned out to be a blunder.As forour military not going around getting into other countries business, I would say that is correct. fact is Jimmy Carter did'nt do too much at all during his term as president.IMO, he did more good after his presidency. But one thing he diddo that I was grateful for was increasingmilitary salary.
Quips---
I must respectfully disagree with most of what you say about Jimmy Carter. Not only was the Iranian hostage done during his watch. But the military operation to rescue was also. That turned out to be a blunder.As forour military not going around getting into other countries business, I would say that is correct. fact is Jimmy Carter did'nt do too much at all during his term as president.IMO, he did more good after his presidency. But one thing he diddo that I was grateful for was increasingmilitary salary.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
I noticed how "quick" the S&P topped out here recently, it topped out and immediately dropped.......typical of this period of its decline.....keep you watch out on this point......
I would figure the Fed keep tightening its belt....interest rates and all....they have no choice and federal pay raises and increases in the COLA's should be on the block again as usual.....the squeeze will be on and it will have its waterflow effect.....
Its going to be a poor Christmas.....have I said that before....???
M3 is a big factor right now.....watch those numbers closely for the companies will raise their prices and rates to keep up with the reduction of value due to the increase of $'s in the system.....again, the loser is the fixed income's without pay raises....they get ripped in this scenario.........good thing is the market will want to revalue on this point since the market will readjust for this point alone .....even though we may not see an apparent adjustment, but it will be there....if you think the market will drop to a certain point, just keep in mind we will never get there due to the M3 influx over the last 5 years....right now the low point will be half as low.....since the M3 has more than doubled.......in the last 5 years....of course this explains the housing bubble also.....houses are costing twice as much as before......same as oil and gas......other energies......
The big kicker in all this is the $ values have changed for most goods and services but the proportions haven't except on fixed income......this is almost depressionary.....and will depend on how resilient our economy is.....
:dude:
I noticed how "quick" the S&P topped out here recently, it topped out and immediately dropped.......typical of this period of its decline.....keep you watch out on this point......
I would figure the Fed keep tightening its belt....interest rates and all....they have no choice and federal pay raises and increases in the COLA's should be on the block again as usual.....the squeeze will be on and it will have its waterflow effect.....
Its going to be a poor Christmas.....have I said that before....???
M3 is a big factor right now.....watch those numbers closely for the companies will raise their prices and rates to keep up with the reduction of value due to the increase of $'s in the system.....again, the loser is the fixed income's without pay raises....they get ripped in this scenario.........good thing is the market will want to revalue on this point since the market will readjust for this point alone .....even though we may not see an apparent adjustment, but it will be there....if you think the market will drop to a certain point, just keep in mind we will never get there due to the M3 influx over the last 5 years....right now the low point will be half as low.....since the M3 has more than doubled.......in the last 5 years....of course this explains the housing bubble also.....houses are costing twice as much as before......same as oil and gas......other energies......
The big kicker in all this is the $ values have changed for most goods and services but the proportions haven't except on fixed income......this is almost depressionary.....and will depend on how resilient our economy is.....
:dude:
imported post
Birch:
You make a very good point: Iran is boxed in both east and west by Western forces ... is it no wonder they are paranoid? LOL (lots of luck)
We may witness a historic dual between "a member of the axis of evil" and "the great Satan". LOL
I think what scares those people the most are some aspects of our democracy where porno is considered freedom of the press; abortion is considered a choice and perversion is simply considered an alternate lifestyle.
I for one don't care what is done behind closed doors in the privacy of one's residence, but to elevate such things in culture and state, well, that is way out of bounds.
Of course for our troops on the ground ... in 110 deg. heat and wearing kevlar jackets, not knowing where the next remote controlled bomb will come from or when, or when the next suicide bomber will strike ... they need to do whatever and anythingit takes to keep themselves and their buddies safe. They haven't the luxury debate such issues in the heat and danger of their current situation.
Birch:
You make a very good point: Iran is boxed in both east and west by Western forces ... is it no wonder they are paranoid? LOL (lots of luck)
We may witness a historic dual between "a member of the axis of evil" and "the great Satan". LOL
I think what scares those people the most are some aspects of our democracy where porno is considered freedom of the press; abortion is considered a choice and perversion is simply considered an alternate lifestyle.
I for one don't care what is done behind closed doors in the privacy of one's residence, but to elevate such things in culture and state, well, that is way out of bounds.
Of course for our troops on the ground ... in 110 deg. heat and wearing kevlar jackets, not knowing where the next remote controlled bomb will come from or when, or when the next suicide bomber will strike ... they need to do whatever and anythingit takes to keep themselves and their buddies safe. They haven't the luxury debate such issues in the heat and danger of their current situation.
imported post
Quips wrote:
Quips wrote:
You should care; what happens 'behind closed doors' affects society as a whole. To not acknowledge that is to live in ignorance.
Quips wrote:
BULLSH...er..I mean...HORSEPUCKEY! Been there, done that, plenty of discussion goin' on at various MOPP levels. Forget the barstool knowitalls who ask rhetorically "Why are we there?"....the military and its members genuinely want tounderstand "Why am I here?" and do.
“Our country, in dealing with other countries, may she always be right, but it is still our country, right or wrong.” --Stephen Decatur
Oh, and its in the 120's there now, hitting 130 is not uncommon.
Quips wrote:
I don't remember that issue. I do remember the hypocritical left wanting to governmentally fund "Piss-Christ" yet continually chant "separation of church and state".
Quips wrote:
You should care; what happens 'behind closed doors' affects society as a whole. To not acknowledge that is to live in ignorance.
Quips wrote:
BULLSH...er..I mean...HORSEPUCKEY! Been there, done that, plenty of discussion goin' on at various MOPP levels. Forget the barstool knowitalls who ask rhetorically "Why are we there?"....the military and its members genuinely want tounderstand "Why am I here?" and do.
“Our country, in dealing with other countries, may she always be right, but it is still our country, right or wrong.” --Stephen Decatur
Oh, and its in the 120's there now, hitting 130 is not uncommon.
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