Market Talk

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Sept. 11, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:.Vestors looking past storm.

Elsewhere:....Lube temperature subsiding.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...............1241.48, up +23.46 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at..-0.001, up
RSI (strength) at.......61.1 [O.B.=70, O.S.=30]
MACD (trend)......bullish
S-STO (signal)....bullish
P-SAR (signal)....bullish
ROC (change).....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..................64.08, dn -3.49 for the week.

Attachment:.S&P (3mo) chart ending 9/09. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.

Tea leaves:......Green


Yak.

Remarks:.............Holding 40/60
S&P Stops:..........Alert: 1229, Trailing: 1217.
Oil Markers:........ <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.
Weekly TSP Returns: G=+.01, F=-.04, C=+.26, S=+.30, I=+.17

Other: FOMC meeting 9/20 (?).
 
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Summary of Last Week

Week after Labor Day - 2005
F-fund-0.37%
C-fund1.98%
S-fund1.91%
I-fund1.02%



Week after Labor Day - 2004
F-fund0.59%
C-fund0.93%
S-fund1.50%
I-fund1.75%


Week after Labor Day - 2003
F-fund0.62%
C-fund1.33%
S-fund1.62%
I-fund2.80%

==================================
Coming week

2nd Week after Labor Day - 2004
F-fund0.19%
C-fund0.42%
S-fund0.86%
I-fund-0.07%

2nd Week after Labor Day - 2003
F-fund0.51%
C-fund-0.19%
S-fund-0.44%
I-fund0.54%

2ndWeek.jpg
 
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Thanks for that info El, but I would not base future performance on past results for these reasons:

1) the bull market run started in Mar-April 2003 and most of the easy gains have already been made.

2) gasoline prices are much, much higher now than in 2003

3) interest rates are higher now than in 2003
 
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Investors Optimistic Despite Problems



Sept 11, 2005

(AP) Stock investors are feeling bullish these days, shrugging off so far the effects of $3-per-gallon gasoline and the short-term economic impact of Hurricane Katrina's devastation.

That's due in part because crude oil prices have dropped below their pre-Katrina levels as more Gulf Coast production and refining capacity is restored. Also, in a rare burst of long-term thinking, investors also anticipate that a reconstruction boom may help boost economic growth in 2006.

And finally, there's the belief — or perhaps just a hope — that Federal Reserve policy-makers won't raise interest rates another quarter percentage point when the Federal Open Markets Committee meets Tuesday, Sept. 20. The argument for pausing is that it's better to wait and gauge the impact of the storm's shock to the economy before making borrowing more expensive for the reconstruction effort.

It's a nice theory. But is it something to gamble on?

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is ready to quit Jan. 31, 2006, when his term expires. It's widely expected that he will want to give his successor leeway to cut rates meaningfully if the economy softens after his departure. That bodes for continuing rate hikes. In addition, Sept. 20 may be too soon to fully understand Katrina's impact. As such, the Fed may err on the side of containing inflation, especially as energy costs soar, and keep the rate hikes coming.

Furthermore, anyone looking for a year-end rally, such as the postelection surge in stocks last year, could be disappointed. Yes, $63 per barrel of oil prices is better for most than $70 oil. But it's still far above last year's $40 price and there's no election to quickly and decisively provide clarity and guidance for the nation's future.

High gasoline and heating oil prices will curtail consumer spending going into the critical holiday shopping season. A substantial swath of the population will remain displaced for months. And while reconstruction will certainly generate economic activity, is it enough to replace what was already going on in the region to begin with?

Once the euphoria of falling crude futures wanes on Wall Street, the hard questions will remain, and could weigh on stocks in the weeks ahead — especially if the Fed goes ahead with another rate hike. This may not be a cause for a sell-off, but may not be enough to justify a buying spree.

For now, however, falling oil prices were enough to spur the stock market to a week of solid gains. The Dow Jones industrial average surged 2.21 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 1.93 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index climbed 1.61 percent.

ECONOMIC DATA

Wall Street's most trusted gauges of inflation, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, will be released in the week ahead, and will almost certainly move the market coming so soon before the Fed's meeting.

The Labor Department's PPI index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, was expected to rise 0.7 percent in August, down from a 1 percent jump in July, when it's released Tuesday. "Core" PPI, with fuel and food costs removed, was expected to climb just 0.1 percent, compared to July's 0.4 percent rise.

On Thursday, the Labor Department will release the CPI, which is expected to climb 0.5 percent, level with July's 0.5 percent gain. Core CPI, again with costly energy and food costs removed, was expected to post an 0.2 percent gain, up from a 0.1 percent rise in July.

Should either of these indexes move higher than expected, it would raise the specter of inflation and higher interest rates. And that would certainly push stocks lower.



Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press
 
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Skypilot,

Personally I don't care who he is - I just appreciate the fact that he makes a worthwhile contribution. We are all mostly involved in learning as much financial information as possible - perhaps he will lead us out of the darkness into the light of the bull market. Seriously though, I thought the personality was cool with a certain edge to it - no glamor, just up front. And a very cautious investor - he was my very own secret contrary indicator - hope his investing style hasn't changed.

Dennis
 
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Wow, the Nikkei is up 1.37% and the market just opened15 minutes ago. :)

Wonder where it will be when it closes?

Our futures are up too. Still 40/60 si.
 
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Coolhand,

I certainly would not want a short squeeze put on me - they have been holding back thinking this move is not real. We are still at historic record short levels - if they decide to cover their positions there will be some big momentum up days - they all can't possibly get out at once - this may take months. The brutality will be absolutely fun to observe - like watching a wrestling match. I'm still waiting for lift off. See ya

Dennis
 
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Things looking good in Asia; besides this the yen is appreciating against the dollar. Word is it will be a 105 =$1 by the end of the year; it is approximately 109 now.

I would hold off buying US Treasury debt myself if I could get more for less in a matter of a few months.

Asian Stocks Advance as Japan Rises on Koizumi Win; Kospi Gains

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks gained, with Japan's benchmarks climbing to the highest in more than four years, after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi won a landslide election victory.

Banks including Mizuho Financial Group Inc. led gains on expectations Koizumi will be able to push ahead with plans to cut debt and bolster growth in the world's second-largest economy by selling state assets. A report showed the economy expanded in the second quarter at three times the pace the government estimated.

Koizumi is ``going to be more aggressive on change,'' said David Herro, who runs the $5.7 billion Oakmark International Fund in Chicago. ``The fact that growth is coming on will take pressure off the U.S. and that will not only be good for Pacific-Rim growth, but for the global economy.''

Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which makes PlayStation Portables for Sony Corp., and Singapore's CapitaLand Ltd., which has two property funds in Japan, advanced.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 1,000 companies, rose 0.8 percent to 109.22, the highest since September 2000, at 6:50 p.m. in Tokyo. South Korea's Kospi index closed at a record high for a fourth day. Indexes in the Philippines and New Zealand fell, and gained elsewhere in the region. China was little changed.

Majority Rules

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 1.6 percent to 12,896.43, its biggest gain since Aug. 10. The Topix index added 1.3 percent. The benchmarks closed at the highest since June 2001.

Industry measures tracking banks, property companies and insurers were the three best performers among the 33 Topix industry groups after Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner won 68 percent of seats in the lower house.

Mizuho, Japan's largest bank by assets, climbed 4.4 percent to 640,000 yen. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc., the second biggest, added 2.7 percent to 1.15 million yen. Millea Holdings Inc., the biggest insurance firm, climbed 3.8 percent to 1.65 million yen.

Koizumi called for elections after legislators from his own party voted against his plan to sell Japan Post, the world's largest savings bank with 350 trillion yen ($3.2 trillion) in assets. Banks would gain if deposits and insurance contracts individuals hold at Japan Post were shifted to their accounts.

`Overwhelming'

``An election victory that is so overwhelming will give Koizumi a mandate, not just to privatize the postal system, but a general mandate for reform,'' Brent Lynn, who runs the $2.2 billion Janus Overseas Fund at Janus Capital Group Inc. in Denver, said in a telephone interview from Hong Kong. ``It's a spectacular result.''

Overseas investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks for the past 12 weeks, according to the Ministry of Finance.

A government report before the market opened showed the economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter, three times as much as its initial estimate and more than all 18 economists had expected in a Bloomberg News survey.

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Japan's biggest developer, added 3.5 percent to 1,598 yen. Land prices in Tokyo rose last year for the first time since 1992.

Japan Effect

CLSA Ltd.'s Christopher Wood, the top-ranked Asian equity strategist in Institutional Investor's latest survey, recommended investors buy Japanese stocks such as Mizuho and Mitsubishi Estate Co. that will benefit from the nation's economic growth.

John Vail, chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s brokerage unit in Tokyo, raised the year-end estimate for the Topix by 5.9 percent to 1350 in an e-mailed note to clients today.

In Taiwan, the Taiex index gained 0.8 percent, while Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 1 percent.

Hon Hai Precision, Taiwan's largest electronics company, rose 2.6 percent to NT$156. Quanta Computer Inc., which counts Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. among its customers, added 3.2 percent to NT$55.20.

Taiwan's exports to Japan in the past 12 months rose 8.5 percent to $13.9 billion from the same period a year ago. In the period, Japan accounted for 7.6 percent of the island's exports.

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia's top developer, rose 1.7 percent to S$3.02. The company has said it may tie up with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. or a retailer in Japan to expand in the country.

South Korea

``Because Japan is the largest economy in Asia, any positives pushing its markets higher are also good for the rest of the region,'' said Choi Chang Hoon, who helps manage $770 million at Woori Asset Management Co. in Seoul.

The Kospi advanced 0.5 percent to 1158.36, the fourth record in as many days. On Sept. 7, the index surpassed a record closing high that stood for almost 11 years.

Samsung Securities Co. led gains by brokerages on expectations earnings will climb as trading increases. Shares valued at an average 3 trillion won ($3 billion) have changed hands daily in the past three months. That's 24 percent more than the daily average in the first six months of the year.

Samsung Securities, South Korea's largest brokerage by market value, jumped 6.4 percent to 40,700 won.

Daewoo Securities Co., the second largest, rose 5.8 percent to 12,750 won. The company said on Sept. 10 its profit in August more than doubled to 30 billion won from a year ago.

Elsewhere, Japan's TIS Inc., which provides system construction and data processing services, slumped 14 percent to 2,605 yen, the biggest drop in almost 12 years. The company slashed its half-year profit forecast by 44 percent and three analysts lowered their recommendations on the stock.
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

More information on energy

This site is a............Well you will just have to see it!

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

It's from the Energy Information Administration

Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government! :oo

Rgds :) Spaf
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Sept. 12, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:.Vestors concerned about inflation and rates; stox mixed, some higher, some lower.

Elsewhere:....Oil pressure continues to drop.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1240.56, dn -0.92
CMF (money flow) at.-0.008, dn
RSI (strength) at...60.4, dn
MACD (trend)...bullish
S-STO (signal)..overbought
P-SAR (signal)..bullish
ROC (change)...bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at......63.34, dn -0.74

Tea Leaves:..............Green


Yak.

Remarks:......Holding 40/60
S&P Stops:...Alert: 1229, Trail: 1217
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-65= worry, >69= panic.

Other: Cartel meets 9/20, see attachment.

Rgds! :) Spaf
 
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Spaf wrote:
The Kingdom of TSP

More information on energy

This site is a............Well you will just have to see it!

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

It's from the Energy Information Administration

Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government! :oo

Rgds :) Spaf
Yeah, I find myself rolling my eyes more and more these days. :D

Take itwith a grain of salt.
 
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My sentiment sides with the choppy market:

From Marketwatch:

The big number of the week comes on Thursday with the August consumer price index. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are estimating, on average, an increase of 0.5% in the CPI following a similar rise in July.

"The core inflation data should remain fairly tame," said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial. Hoffman notes that September should see a big jump in the headline CPI and in the core measure, as many firms tried to pass along their higher energy and transportation costs.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2% for August, which would be the biggest gain in five months.

Core inflation is important to the Fed, not because central bankers are heartless and clueless elites who don't know regular people need to eat and drive and heat their homes, but because containing underlying inflation is what counts.

The Fed can't do anything about rising energy prices, but it can try to limit the damage to the economy that would result if everyone tried to pass along higher costs to someone else. Core inflation rates are the best gauge of that.

PPI

The story will be much the same on Tuesday when the Labor Department reports on the producer price index for August. Expectations are centering on an increase of about 0.7% in the PPI and 0.1% for the core PPI, an improvement from July's 1% and 0.4% gains.

Energy prices will push the headline rate higher, while core prices could be held down by an unwinding of the "bizarre spike" in motor-vehicle sales, said David Greenlaw, chief U.S. fixed income economist for Morgan Stanley.

As bad as the August inflation numbers are, everyone knows September could be much worse. If retail gasoline costs $3 a gallon, Greenlaw estimates that the headline CPI could rise 0.8%, which would be a 15-year high.

High energy prices fuel inflation, but they also lower growth by diverting resources. Retail sales are expected to plunge in August by 1.1%, reversing most of July's 1.8% rise, economists say. The data will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
 
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Again, from Marketwatch:

(My take on this strategy is that inflation is not only an insidious force against the consumer, but also for business, so the release of oil from the strategic oil reserve is not being done for political reasons, but for economic.)

The Energy Department announced plans last week to auction roughly 30 million barrels of federally owned oil in an effort to stem a supply crunch following Hurricane Katrina's destruction of vital energy infrastructure.

"The president authorized the sale of oil from the reserve to help keep markets well supplied at a time when there were widespread fears of looming shortages. I authorized the Department to sell 30 million barrels," Bodman said, in a speech before the National Association of Towns and Townships.

Companies have until Friday to make bids for the oil, and the Energy Department anticipates announcing winning bids by the close of next week, an agency spokesman said.

"Under the declaration of the president, I am authorized to accept less than 30 million, 30 million or more than 30 million barrels," Bodman said, depending on the response from individual companies. Oil can be released from the reserve only following an order by the president.

The Energy Department's decision to hold a sale came in conjunction with an announcement that other International Energy Agency member-countries would release an additional 33 million barrels of oil into the market in the next 30 days to help ease supply constraints. The supplies will add roughly 2 million barrels a day to the market for one month.

International Energy Agency representatives are slated to meet on Sept. 15 in Paris to review the effect the combined 63 million barrels has on the market and see if additional action is necessary.

The 30 million barrels the U.S. government is offering for sale will be withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- which currently holds more than 700 million barrels of oil stored in a handful of underground salt caverns 2,000 to 4,000 feet below ground along the Gulf coastline in Texas and Louisiana.

Additionally, the Energy Department has offered loans totaling 12.6 million barrels to a handful of energy companies to help stabilize refinery operations.
 
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I will be satisfied with the S&P index at 1240 at the end of September.

Again, from Marketwatch:

Hurricane Katrina dealt "a significant but not disastrous hit to growth," Wieseman said. After the storm, Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth from about 3.5% to about 2.5% for the second half of the year.

Early next year, the impact will likely fade as the stimulus from rebuilding kicks in. Consumer spending won't bounce back very quickly with energy prices remaining elevated.

Higher energy prices will siphon an estimated $50 billion from discretionary consumer spending, he said.

"Headline inflation will go through the roof," Wieseman asserted. The shock to energy supplies "comes against a backdrop of an economy running close to capacity."

Core inflation will gradually drift higher through the rest of this year and next, ending 2006 at about 2.5% year-over-year growth on the consumer price index, he said.

Wieseman and the Morgan Stanley team say the Federal Open Market Committee's likely to raise interest rates at both the policymaking September and November meetings, pushing the federal funds target rate to 4%, "in the ballpark of neutral."

For a forecaster, September will be a tough time: Katrina's aftermath will muddy all the data. "There's not much value at looking at the economic data," Wieseman said.

Forecasting a number like payrolls won't be easy, but it'll be child's play compared with the task facing the Bureau of Labor Statistics next week when it attempts to survey the impact of the storm in the Gulf Coast.

It's not clear the September or even October payroll numbers will mean much.

Wieseman said markets and policymakers will have to rely on signals like energy prices and the Energy Department's supply and demand figures to guide them through the next few weeks.

One thing is sure: The Fed is watching the inflation figures like a hawk, Wieseman said. Any sign that the surge in energy costs is being passed along or that inflationary expectations are rising will be dealt with immediately by the Fed.
 
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I go off for a few days and look at what happens, ya'll let the market take a run at it.....but I'm back...went to Colorado for few days.....

i took a look at the current situation, a run up happened and looks like it could end soon.....lets see its Sept 12, we have a month before my final dates come into being....we could just play around here for a month, but I still am very cautious.....year ending doesn't look like a winner in the current mode....feel like Walmart will do poorly and we all will suffer.

Could be we in till it hits 1245 and then a drop......no telling in this extended market....I'm still looking down.....we haven't had aday since Aug 8th that exceeded the 1245 mark.....accumulation is pulling up but looks like its about to turn downward.....guess we ain't going to make a charge up based on this....

Will be back.

:dude:
 
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So far oil has fallen 11% from Katerina highs; prices there should weaken more with the strategic oil reserves being worked.

Lower oil prices will make the Fed and its "measured pace" interest rate policy easier to take. Will it be a coincidence to see the former go lower while the latter steps higher?

If oil drops to the high $50's we will see a nice gain in the indices.



Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell in U.S. trading. Cnooc Ltd., China's largest offshore oil producer, led commodity shares lower as prices for oil and metals including copper and gold declined.

The Bank of New York Co.'s Asia ADR Index, which tracks the region's American depositary receipts, lost 0.4 percent to 118.58.

Oil prices dropped 0.4 percent to $63.12 a barrel in New York, extending their decline to 11 percent from a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30. Copper slipped for the fifth session in six while gold retreated from a nine-month high.

Cnooc decreased $1.45 to $68.87. PetroChina Co., the country's top oil company, fell 74 cents to $79.29.

BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, lost 6 cents to $31.23, while Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. slid $1.88 to $56.10.

Nissan Motor Co. gained 3 cents to $21.65. Japan's second- largest automaker said profit will keep rising beyond this year as the company enters new markets and releases a wider variety of cars and light trucks.
 
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