Market Talk

[ou81200]

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In 1972, That was an embargo. The middleast was manipulating oil export. That will nothappen again. As much as they dislike us they have to have a buyer. The Saudis are exporting as much as they can. This was not the case in 1972. The problem now is supply and demand. Plain and simple.

As much as I hate to say this, the late 70's and early 80's were not good for this country. What would happen now if another Tehran hostage situation took place. We've went after countries in the last fifteen years for lesser offences. For example, look what we did to Kadafi and Noriega.

When Saddam went into Kuwait in 90, we did'nt invade the middle east. We were invited by Saudi Arabia. As powerful as Saudi is suppose to be, Iraq had them scared in their britches and who did they run to-------US. I know because I was there.

During Iraqi Freedom. As much as these other countries did'nt like it. They did'nt do much about it. Personally, I think the world was thinking "Oh crap, why did we stir up the hornets nest".

Let them try another embargo. They will go broke. We can quit selling them military parts. In six months, the Saudi airforce will be grounded. We can start selling them wheat instead of giving it to them. We'll use the grain to make gasaholto lessen our dependence even more.

Maybe we can take the leash of Israel so everytime one of these terror cells screws with them, they can retaliate as they see fit. That could get real ugly.

 

[The_Technician]

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Well I just got back from the beach.....looks like we didn't get the drop I was looking for.....but, we also didn't get anything else either...except higher oil and gas prices...

Since I'm fairly sure the market is being propped up, I think the upcoming months should be rather interesting.....

I guess I'll be waiting on the sidelines again for another possible moment that the market drops....under these premises, I'm expecting it to be a BIG surprise!!! Kinda looking for that Bull Trap to be a good possiblity.....I'm still seeing a continuous drop to 1145 by middle Sept as a good probability....

Anyone still in has got to have hard cold b@lls!!!

:dude:

 

[Birchtree]

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Lend me some of your G funds and I'll go even deeper - maybe 800% long!

ou81200,

Remember when we hit Saddam the market rallied 3000 points starting 3/03. We have been building infrastructure in Afghanistan and Iraq for several years now. This has been preparation for the number one dog killing that is coming. Osama has been protected in Iran - we'll drop so much heavy duty MOAB on them they won't cause anymore trouble for years to come. Just keep their oil wells intact. Where will China surface in this scenario. They need oil worse than we do. Anyway oil is the catalyst and energy is the new kid on the block to provide strong leadership for many years into the future.

Dennis

 

[teknobucks]

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tsptalk wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!

I need to take you to Vegas with me tekno. Whenever I say "WEEEEEEEEE" the market slaps me down (not just this summer either). You just keep winning. :^ It's an attitude thing. You have the correct one.

Whenever my ego gets in the way, I am quickly humbled.

I see you went 77% G. You may be the best timer here. (PR is a close second).

Tom

just lucky moves and that damn 1929-40 chart....i'm convinced it is the flight plan here.....rb's harrybreaths is right!

if i use my head i end up following this line>>>>>Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence.

jhmo

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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Birchtree wrote:

Remember when we hit Saddam the market rallied 3000 points starting 3/03. We have been building infrastructure in Afghanistan and Iraq for several years now. This has been preparation for the number one dog killing that is coming. Osama has been protected in Iran - we'll drop so much heavy duty MOAB on them they won't cause anymore trouble for years to come. Just keep their oil wells intact. Where will China surface in this scenario. They need oil worse than we do. Anyway oil is the catalyst and energy is the new kid on the block to provide strong leadership for many years into the future.

Dennis

debka sees obl moving into iraq....perhaps his life of dyalysis on the run will end in an alley in bagdad soon.

wonder what kind of grand finale the pos has planned....

 

[teknobucks]

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The Technician wrote:

Well I just got back from the beach.....looks like we didn't get the drop I was looking for.....but, we also didn't get anything else either...except higher oil and gas prices...

Since I'm fairly sure the market is being propped up, I think the upcoming months

come on ....how bout that i fund tech????

what beach do you frequent btw?

 

[ou81200]

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Dennis---

I'm not sure about China's oil producing capabilities, but they do have plenty of coal. When it got too expensive mining our own in the 70's and 80's, We imported it from China and Australia.

China wants to be a big dog in the financial world. I'm not sure how they can with their communist goverment. However, if they concentrate on using their financial resources building bussiness instead of military might. They might be onto something. But that would go against their communist doctrine of having personal bussiness so I don't know.

The infrastructure we are institutionalizing in Iraq and Afganistan I think will be a good thing even though I don't entirely agree about how we initially went about doing it. At that time, Iraq was not a threat as much as Afganistan. I feel we should of taken care of Afganistan first, then dealt with Iraq. After dealing with the Taliban the new goverment was easier to establish. But of course, Afganistan does'nt have the resources of Iraq. Iraq exports oil and is suppose to have the second largest oil resources in the world that we know of and Afganistans main export is opium.

 

[ou81200]

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Dennis---

I've been out of the G-fund for awhile now. I got burnt pretty bad last week in that short consolidation phase we went through, but made it up by being in the I-fund. I like the way the EAFE graph has been looking and with the dollar weakening, it seems like a better place to be than C or S. I may stay 100% I fund for a little bit.

Chuck

 

[Birchtree]

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The I fund is currently being pulled up by the Nikkei 225 - it has a 23% weighting. The Japanese index is up around 2000 points in three months - may get snapped back like the S fund or perhaps it's real and the Japan economy will lead us for a period of time. They are the #2 world economy.

 

[The_Technician]

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Been at Gulf Shores....best beach in this here US....sugar sand, white as a sheet....U beeen there right Tekx$'s???

If the market goes bottoms up, who has an idea of what will happen to the I fund???

Hey DMA, what do you think???

:dude:

 

[TSP_Elvis]

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TSP_Elvis wrote:

Looks like the NYSE is about the only index with a nice gain yesterday. This tells me the bulls and bears are fighting it out with institutional money being the bulls. Who'll win? Looks like a tight trading range until someone gives. If the institutions give in, look for a big drop quickly.

Keep an eye on the NYSE is my opinion.

E

Have the institutioners won? Don't think they'll like the Dell numbers and we'll see a pullback today. How far is the question.

E

 

[teknobucks]

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The Technician wrote:

Been at Gulf Shores....best beach in this here US....sugar sand, white as a sheet....U beeen there right Tekx$'s???

If the market goes bottoms up, who has an idea of what will happen to the I fund???

Hey DMA, what do you think???

:dude:

oh yes sir....it's the west end of the "red neck riviera"

always admired how brilliantly white the sand was out on santa rosa island. those poor folks took some major hits from the canesrecently.

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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TSP_Elvis wrote:

TSP_Elvis wrote:

Looks like the NYSE is about the only index with a nice gain yesterday. This tells me the bulls and bears are fighting it out with institutional money being the bulls. Who'll win? Looks like a tight trading range until someone gives. If the institutions give in, look for a big drop quickly.

Keep an eye on the NYSE is my opinion.

E

Have the institutioners won? Don't think they'll like the Dell numbers and we'll see a pullback today. How far is the question.

E

perhaps time for the big caps has arrived.....i c 2-3% max pain with some sector rotation????

buying opp 4 the c fund

 

[TSP_Elvis]

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You may be right. Did you see the forecasters think Greenspan will raise rates another 1% now? Probably not good for small caps.

E

 

[TSP_Elvis]

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FYI

 

[teknobucks]

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post off si:

simply pointing out that (1) there are only a few instances EVER that CBOE P/C ratio SMAs were/are this high, and (2) that certainly we have NEVER been this high at a presumed market top.

But it is not just the CBOE P/C ratio that I am basing my opinion that the small specs are shorting the market with impunity, if you look at both NYSE PSR (Public Short Ratios) as well as NYSE ODLSSR (Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratios), we have NEVER seen such high readings EVER - and the PSR data goes back to 1943, and the ODLSSR data goes back to 1988.

I am not neceserrily arguing that these readings are either bearish or bullish for the market, the point is that (1) we have NEVER seen such bearish sentiment from NYSE PSR and NYSE ODLSSR, and (2) we certainly have NEVER seen such high CBOE P/C ratio SMAs near/at a presumed TOP.

You raise the issue of CBOE Equity P/C ratio, and granted they are not as high as CBOE P/C ratios as the current SMAs are:

5-day 0.60
10-day 0.61
21-day 0.57

However, at Jan-04 high (before the sharp and prolonged sell-off into Aug-04 80w cycle low), the CBOE Equity P/C ratio SMAs hit the following:

5-day 0.46
10-day 0.42
21-day 0.47

So, there is (potentially) plenty of room to go. Furthermore, the ALL-time average for CBOE Equity P/C ratio since 1997 is 0.56 - virtually exactly where the 21-day SMA is at. So, it certainly CANNOT be desribed as low, at it should be described as NEUTRAL, especially considering that at Mar-2000 TOP, this is what the readings were:

5-day 0.34
10-day 0.35
21-day 0.36

From that standpoint, we have PLENTY, PLENTY of room to go, i.e. they were almost HALF where they are now.

I will not comment on your OCC small option contract data

 

[teknobucks]

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Institutional Sentiment & Analysis Weekend Report
for the week of JAugust 1, 2005 - August 5, 2005

[line]

Short-Term Sentiment:
Negative.

Intermediate-Term Sentiment:
Mildly Negative. Early Top Building.

Intermediate-term Trend:
Positive.

Short-term (one-day) Signal:
Cover on weakness. (last signal Sell--"we are picking a top" as of 7/29).

Ideal Portfolio:
100% Money Market. Looking to Buy a pullback.

 

[teknobucks]

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off ihub....ander rant...LOL

I have a relation that works at a hedge fund that ran Oil for the better part of 2003-2004. Back Winter 2004 they were still deeply invested but trimming some profits. They were concerned with the weakness in the economy and the tightening. But the housing market generated tremendous inflows of financing over the last 2 years and changed the paradigm of the markets.

The USD Index is weighed against the Euro by 57.6% and 13.6% Yen. The inverse relationship is stronger there than its relationship to Gold. As we saw during the EU Constitution vote that Gold seeks economic instability anywhere in the world. It traded higher against the Euro for a short time due to a "Flight to Quality" created by Euro weakness.

With the Euro and Yen potentially confirming a reversal of their 4 year uptrend with H&S patterns inside of H&S patterns all the way down we are talking about at 70.2% weighted move inverse in the Dollar\Yuan combo. That kind of instability will cause another "Flight to Quality" out of Japan and Europe into US Dollars\Chinese Yuan and Commodities such as Gold.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symbol=$XEU&period=WEEKLY&start=1980-08-11&id=p3432666069....

I was expecting that Gold would reach under $400 with all the bearish sentiment surfacing on it and part of me still expects it but there is a solid break of the triangle and probability of an uptrend increased significantly. There is still the probability that Gold will still range when it hits 450 and come back down creating a rectangle pattern as it did between 93-97. Today was a very emotional move.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?symbol=$GOLD&period=WEEKLY&start=1980-08-11&id=t792480053....

 

[teknobucks]

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amazing how well all the pros have been doing (not)....LMAO

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/common/P118061.asp

having a few phd's in financial forecasting synergising with a bunch mm's looks like the "caustic cocktail"

chart ta is out..... the 1929-1940 dow chart is in.....JMHO

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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Tom this happened close 2 u correct?.....

Truck Carrying Explosives Blows Up in Utah
Wednesday, August 10, 2005

SALT LAKE CITY — A tractor-trailer carrying 35,500 pounds of explosives overturned and exploded Wednesday, injuring four people and leaving a huge crater on Utah Highway 6 in Spanish Fork Canyon.

A motorist and a passenger in the truck´s cab were among those transported to hospitals immediately after the 1:54 p.m. accident, Utah Highway Patrol Sgt. Todd Royce said.

LDS Hospital spokesman Jess Gomez said two person in critical condition were taken by medical helicopter to Utah Valley Regional Medical Center (search) in Provo. A third was brought in by ambulance in satisfactory condition.

A fourth person was transported by helicopter to University of Utah Hospital, spokesman Chris Nelson said.

The tractor-trailer driver was able to get out of his truck and warn other motorists away from the truck before the explosion. It was not immediately known if the driver was hurt.

The canyon about 60 miles south of Salt Lake City (search) was closed in both directions.

It was unclear how the accident occurred, Royce said. He said the truck was "pretty much vaporized" in the explosion and that that both lanes of the highway had been gutted by the blast.

The accident happened in an area about 20 miles east of the mouth of the canyon known as the Red Narrows.

Television coverage of the accident scene shows a large crater in the road and damage to nearby rail lines. Several small fires in the hills above the accident scene were believed to have been triggered by flying debris.

The rig with a 6-foot trailer from R&R Trucking of Missouri had just left commercial explosives maker Ensign-Bickford (search) at the mouth of Spanish Fork Canyon when the accident happened. The truck was headed to Oklahoma, company officials said. They wouldn´t say what type of explosives the truck was carrying.

Hal Jaussi, an Ensign-Bickman manager, said the trucking company "met federal regulations for transporting explosives."

Trucking company controller Doug Greek said the company couldn´t comment on the accident because they were "still trying to investigate everything that´s happened."

"It´s just crazy," Greek said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0%2C2933%2C165348%2C00.html