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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
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I do not get infront of the IRS train.
I dot my Is and cross my Ts and all the junk.
Thanks for the advice Birch.
Keep up those cargo ship updates for us.
I do not get infront of the IRS train.
I dot my Is and cross my Ts and all the junk.
Thanks for the advice Birch.
Keep up those cargo ship updates for us.
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Is this better WW??
Is this better WW??
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Birchtree wrote:
Birchtree wrote:
I'm confused. What are you referring to? Check my original post once more.
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DMA wrote:
DMA wrote:
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No worries WW.
That is what I mean about this market.
Even the bag holders are scrapping up more cash to pile in.
Insiders are piling out (selling their shares).
Just like 2000.
No worries WW.
That is what I mean about this market.
Even the bag holders are scrapping up more cash to pile in.
Insiders are piling out (selling their shares).
Just like 2000.
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
imported post
Hmm, guess today fooled me with all them losers and gainers.....
Guess we should all jump right in Birch.....:dude:
Hmm, guess today fooled me with all them losers and gainers.....
Guess we should all jump right in Birch.....:dude:
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The Technician wrote:
Not one tsp fund made money today.
This was a great day to make some dough on the short side.
TSP needs to add some funds like the Rydex funds so you can make money if the market goes up or down.
Private accounts will be great. Biggest economic diaster of our lifetimes.
At least you should be able to hedge for the short side. When bonds and stocks are getting slammed - no where to go. G fund pays out longer and longer even thou it should be shorter and shorter due to much higher intererst rates.
Oh well. Thank goodness for ROTH IRA. :^
DMA - The True Contrarian. :^
The Technician wrote:
Not one tsp fund made money today.
This was a great day to make some dough on the short side.
TSP needs to add some funds like the Rydex funds so you can make money if the market goes up or down.
Private accounts will be great. Biggest economic diaster of our lifetimes.
At least you should be able to hedge for the short side. When bonds and stocks are getting slammed - no where to go. G fund pays out longer and longer even thou it should be shorter and shorter due to much higher intererst rates.
Oh well. Thank goodness for ROTH IRA. :^
DMA - The True Contrarian. :^
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There back!!!!!!!!!!!
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There back!!!!!!!!!!!
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No link. Welcome to 1972 and not 1995 :^:shock:
10 months into the recession in 1972 people figured out we were in a recession.
Get ready for return of the bad '70s
James Breiner
In 1973 we saw human behavior at its worst. The Arab oil embargo created panic. People feared that they wouldn't be able to get their next gallon of gasoline, so they did what people do: They lined up at gasoline stations to get theirs.
Everyone was topping off their tanks. Fistfights broke out when people felt others had cut into the line. People with license plates ending in even numbers were supposed to go to the gas station only on even-numbered days, and the same with odd numbers. Highway speed limits were reduced to 55 mph everywhere from 75 and 70 in order to conserve fuel.
We were living in New England, where many people relied on fuel oil to heat their homes. The previous tenant in a house we rented had scrounged up a couple of 50-gallon drums and had his supplier fill them with the precious fuel oil to ensure that he wouldn't run out that winter. That behavior, multiplied a few hundred thousand times, worsened the shortage.
People started using their long-neglected fireplaces and burned everything from wood to coal, causing all kinds of problems with ventilation and fire safety. There was a run on firewood. Enterprising wood-suppliers jacked up the price and stacked their wood in creative ways so that more air could fill out a cord.
The price of gasoline was 36 cents a gallon, or, about $1.64 in today's dollars.
For a while, we changed our behavior. We bought smaller European and Japanese cars. Gas-guzzling American-made land cruisers declined in popularity.
Changes in tax laws encouraged people to install energy-saving devices in their homes. Some of these devices may actually have worked, but a lot of them were simply created to feed an enormous, insatiable demand.
A friend of mine had a geothermal system installed in his house that used well water to assist in cooling and heating his home. He took a $7,000 tax credit, which was a lot of money in the 1970s. If he hadn't had the tax credit, it would have taken him years to amortize the investment with reduced energy consumption.
The cost of energy became a factor in every business decision, from the types of windows installed in office buildings to the type of HVAC plant installed in a public building (it was a question of whether fuel oil, natural gas or electricity was the cheapest and most efficient way to get the job done).
After a while, though, people forgot. They built bigger houses farther and farther from where they worked, went to school and shopped. When was the last time you heard someone discuss the energy bills of a home they were thinking about buying? In the 1970s, this was on everyone's mind.
Compared with 30 years ago, people really aren't feeling the pain of higher fuel prices. In the early 1970s, inflation was approaching double-digits every year. So with little pain, they see no reason to change.
Gasoline prices are two and three times higher today in Europe than they are here. The news in the United Kingdom is that the price in Scotland passed 1 pound per litre over the weekend, or about $6.60 a gallon. In Italy and France, the price is about $5.50 a gallon.
Meanwhile, we are living in a fool's paradise. Big automobiles made a comeback in the new form that we now see everywhere.
If you take a drive down the country roads in northern Baltimore County, you will drive past field and forest and suddenly an island of enormous homes will appear. The people who live here are not farmers and factory workers. They are probably commuters.
It just isn't costing them that much, relatively speaking, to fuel their vehicles and homes.
No one has turned off the spigot yet. We have an abundance of space, relatively cheap land and relatively cheap fuel. So we see no reason to change.
I am not anxious to revisit the bad old 1970s.
But I fear what will happen when someone turns off the spigot.
James Breiner is publisher of Baltimore Business Journal.
No link. Welcome to 1972 and not 1995 :^:shock:
10 months into the recession in 1972 people figured out we were in a recession.
Get ready for return of the bad '70s
James Breiner
In 1973 we saw human behavior at its worst. The Arab oil embargo created panic. People feared that they wouldn't be able to get their next gallon of gasoline, so they did what people do: They lined up at gasoline stations to get theirs.
Everyone was topping off their tanks. Fistfights broke out when people felt others had cut into the line. People with license plates ending in even numbers were supposed to go to the gas station only on even-numbered days, and the same with odd numbers. Highway speed limits were reduced to 55 mph everywhere from 75 and 70 in order to conserve fuel.
We were living in New England, where many people relied on fuel oil to heat their homes. The previous tenant in a house we rented had scrounged up a couple of 50-gallon drums and had his supplier fill them with the precious fuel oil to ensure that he wouldn't run out that winter. That behavior, multiplied a few hundred thousand times, worsened the shortage.
People started using their long-neglected fireplaces and burned everything from wood to coal, causing all kinds of problems with ventilation and fire safety. There was a run on firewood. Enterprising wood-suppliers jacked up the price and stacked their wood in creative ways so that more air could fill out a cord.
The price of gasoline was 36 cents a gallon, or, about $1.64 in today's dollars.
For a while, we changed our behavior. We bought smaller European and Japanese cars. Gas-guzzling American-made land cruisers declined in popularity.
Changes in tax laws encouraged people to install energy-saving devices in their homes. Some of these devices may actually have worked, but a lot of them were simply created to feed an enormous, insatiable demand.
A friend of mine had a geothermal system installed in his house that used well water to assist in cooling and heating his home. He took a $7,000 tax credit, which was a lot of money in the 1970s. If he hadn't had the tax credit, it would have taken him years to amortize the investment with reduced energy consumption.
The cost of energy became a factor in every business decision, from the types of windows installed in office buildings to the type of HVAC plant installed in a public building (it was a question of whether fuel oil, natural gas or electricity was the cheapest and most efficient way to get the job done).
After a while, though, people forgot. They built bigger houses farther and farther from where they worked, went to school and shopped. When was the last time you heard someone discuss the energy bills of a home they were thinking about buying? In the 1970s, this was on everyone's mind.
Compared with 30 years ago, people really aren't feeling the pain of higher fuel prices. In the early 1970s, inflation was approaching double-digits every year. So with little pain, they see no reason to change.
Gasoline prices are two and three times higher today in Europe than they are here. The news in the United Kingdom is that the price in Scotland passed 1 pound per litre over the weekend, or about $6.60 a gallon. In Italy and France, the price is about $5.50 a gallon.
Meanwhile, we are living in a fool's paradise. Big automobiles made a comeback in the new form that we now see everywhere.
If you take a drive down the country roads in northern Baltimore County, you will drive past field and forest and suddenly an island of enormous homes will appear. The people who live here are not farmers and factory workers. They are probably commuters.
It just isn't costing them that much, relatively speaking, to fuel their vehicles and homes.
No one has turned off the spigot yet. We have an abundance of space, relatively cheap land and relatively cheap fuel. So we see no reason to change.
I am not anxious to revisit the bad old 1970s.
But I fear what will happen when someone turns off the spigot.
James Breiner is publisher of Baltimore Business Journal.
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imported post
Show-me wrote:
C lost .10
I lost .07
Where do you run if everything is dropping?
You can't. That is notgood retirement plan options.
Show-me wrote:
F lost .01
C lost .10
I lost .07
Where do you run if everything is dropping?
You can't. That is notgood retirement plan options.
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No worries ShowMe.
We are in this fight together buddy.
I appreciate you saying that. I understand.
No worries ShowMe.
We are in this fight together buddy.
I appreciate you saying that. I understand.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
imported post
DMA,
When you have the courage of Ferdinand you charge the Bear patch - and watch the scatter. This was the pause that refreshes and was totally necessary - have no fear buddy. You have forgotten to mention that capital spending provided the largest upside surprise in the latest GDP report. It advanced at an annual rate of 11% more than double the forecast. Also, net exports improved and added 1.6 percentage points to the overall GDP figure. No recession in sight yet.
From my vantage point the primary difference between you and Pee Wee is that you zipped and didn't get caught. But you could have been famous - a real contender.
DMA,
When you have the courage of Ferdinand you charge the Bear patch - and watch the scatter. This was the pause that refreshes and was totally necessary - have no fear buddy. You have forgotten to mention that capital spending provided the largest upside surprise in the latest GDP report. It advanced at an annual rate of 11% more than double the forecast. Also, net exports improved and added 1.6 percentage points to the overall GDP figure. No recession in sight yet.
From my vantage point the primary difference between you and Pee Wee is that you zipped and didn't get caught. But you could have been famous - a real contender.
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imported post
GDP - they are using 30 crude for their formula.
They count social security as "fixed income investment" and we know the social security money has been spent but it is carried on the "books" as an asset.
Lots of corporate types are going to jail for spending their workers retirement accounts and counting it as an asset on the books.
Funny how that works.
GDP - they are using 30 crude for their formula.
They count social security as "fixed income investment" and we know the social security money has been spent but it is carried on the "books" as an asset.
Lots of corporate types are going to jail for spending their workers retirement accounts and counting it as an asset on the books.Funny how that works.
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To me it looks like the people in the now got leaked the job report.
Sell offs after lunch prior to the job report are not good.
Notice Snow is not a guest tomorrow on Squak Crap.
When there is a good job number his Mortgian Mug is there. Bad ones he is not a guest.
:shock:Helicopter boy is appearing for him.
Contrary Indicator View
To me it looks like the people in the now got leaked the job report.
Sell offs after lunch prior to the job report are not good.Notice Snow is not a guest tomorrow on Squak Crap.
When there is a good job number his Mortgian Mug is there. Bad ones he is not a guest.
:shock:Helicopter boy is appearing for him.
Contrary Indicator View
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
imported post
Market Conditions
Not a perfect market, but it's still hanging tough. Oil got a few licks in on Thursday, however from what I could gather it ws based on "worries".
The primary movement is still bullish. Thus according to The Dow Theory:
Primary Movements
Primary movements represent the broad underlying trend of the market and can last from a few months to many years. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. Once the primary trend has been identified, it will remain in effect until proven otherwise.
Fundamentals, the economy is still strong. Analysis indicators are still positive, except for Thursday, which could be a head-fake, correction, but yet only a one day fluctuation. Note the PSAR.
The attached chart of the S&P shows about where we are at.
Rgds, and be careful! Spaf
Market Conditions
Not a perfect market, but it's still hanging tough. Oil got a few licks in on Thursday, however from what I could gather it ws based on "worries".
The primary movement is still bullish. Thus according to The Dow Theory:
Primary Movements
Primary movements represent the broad underlying trend of the market and can last from a few months to many years. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. Once the primary trend has been identified, it will remain in effect until proven otherwise.
Fundamentals, the economy is still strong. Analysis indicators are still positive, except for Thursday, which could be a head-fake, correction, but yet only a one day fluctuation. Note the PSAR.
The attached chart of the S&P shows about where we are at.
Rgds, and be careful!
Spaf
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