Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date July 21, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Terrorism at clan camp across the water!

Elsewhere: Market turn volatile.
Yuan gets unstuck from dollar.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1227.04, dn -8.16
CMF (money flow) at 0.001, dn
RSI (strength) at 59.9, dn
MACD (trend) at 8.67, dn, bullish

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 57.13, dn -0.89

Tea Leaves: Pot got knocked over, no tea leaves today.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 40/60
Lube markers: <55=Ok, 55-60=Worry, >60=Panic.
S&P Stops: Alert= 1223, Trail= 1211

 

[robo]

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The seasonality chart that Tom posted shows the next 3 days might give us a small pullback... I don't think we get a disastrous decline. But if the 1220 support fails,we could test the 1205 to 1197. If the 1220 support holds it's probably 1250 plus by the end of July..........We could get some good trading days next week either way................. Good Trading

 

[Guest]

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Rising bond yields are bad for stocks.

Trade safe.

You know when I come back she is going down.

 

[teknobucks]

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what a morning!:shock: had several am appointments and was not able to follow all from a pc.



had china not decoupled the yuan i would of bot heavy into the london event. my guess is we will now have import price inflation and higher bond yields as a result..... so i went into i, f, and g at the cob today.



the china move may and probably will cause other countries to move away from the dollar...the rate hikes from ag may hold up the us currency enough for us to tread water.



Some folks feel this yuan float is a non-event and others think the beginning of some very fugly s###…..who knows 4 sure. the uncertainty of it all made me exit the us stox for a bit till the dust settles on china’s move.



tekno

 

[Guest]

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Buddy you do not want to mess with the F fund. You said it yourself - raising yields.

That means lower NAV.

Right now we will beimporting inflation and exporting currency appreciate.

Look at everbank.com and open a account in a foreign currency account. Australia, New Zealand, Canadian or Mexico currency.

My currencies were up over 1.8% on average today.

The play right now is capital preservation and let this pass. Wait for the yield prymaid to top and go long bonds.

We are going to beat China up to depeg more then 2.11%. That token gesture will not stop the tarriffs next month. We will press for more - I believe target is 10%.

OH yeah, most important remember when I said have cash set aside? Now is that time go to Target, Walmart etc, etc, because prices will be going up very soon - like 2.11% to 5% because they have to pass along ALL costs, i.e. shipping, etc, etc.

74% of this economy is based on the level of Chinese crap in a shopping cart. That shopping cart just went up 2.11% and will go up more.

Raising mortgage interest rates, raising rates at the pump and raising prices for shopping means :s:s:sfor this economy.

USD is going to be toasted alive.

The reason I do not like posting here is Saraho steals my ideas. That echo chamber.

:shock::shock::shock::shock:

Trade safe!

 

[teknobucks]

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welcome back dma!

 

[Guest]

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What up buddy!!

My post above was directed to you.

Best bet right now for a quick 2.11% is going shopping at Walmart.

They will be readjusting their prices over the weekend.

China currency can go up .3 today - however it went up 2% against the USD.

What does that tell ya?????????????????????? :s:shock:

The yuan is limited to moving within a 0.3 percent band each day against a collection of as-yet unnamed foreign currencies.

 

[Guest]

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I see the double post problem was fixed - LOL

 

[Guest]

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If China issues a 10 year bond our goose is cooked.

China balance sheet is the best in the world. Even if they paid 1% with currency exchange appreciate it would be a wonderful place to park a lot of money.

End of Empire stuff here gang.

:^

 

[Greg]

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teknobucks wrote:

welcome back dma!

Same here. Wecome back, DMA !

 

[Single_Tasker]

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test

 

[Guest]

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How ya doing Greg?

Hang in there buddy.

 

[teknobucks]

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DMA wrote:

What up buddy!!

My post above was directed to you.

Best bet right now for a quick 2.11% is going shopping at Walmart.

They will be readjusting their prices over the weekend.

China currency can go up .3 today - however it went up 2% against the USD.

What does that tell ya?????????????????????? :s:shock:

The yuan is limited to moving within a 0.3 percent band each day against a collection of as-yet unnamed foreign currencies.

yeah i know....

the i and f should be the two funds most involved with reflecting this change...ever buy covered calls? bet we see some major manipulation in bonds, m3, rates, and probably tariffs before this is over.

did u retire and cash out of tsp?

 

[Guest]

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We are importing inflation. Inflation means higher yields. Higher yields means damage to bonds net asset value.

But have it. You are the resident expert here.

F fund lost .04 yesterday. That is just a taste of things to come.

The currency depeg did not even start yet. :shock:

FOMC rate hike - right around the corner. :s:shock:

 

[teknobucks]

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DMA wrote:

We are importing inflation. Inflation means higher yields. Higher yields means damage to bonds net asset value.

But have it. You are the resident expert here.

F fund lost .04 yesterday. That is just a taste of things to come.

The currency depeg did not even start yet. :shock:

FOMC rate hike - right around the corner. :s:shock:

i'm buying the fear....u r the missed xpert!

ever read this book??

THE MANDRAKE MECHANISM . . . What is it?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Creature from Jekyll Island

by G. Edward Griffin
(Available from: The Reality Zone)

Chapter 10

What is the Mandrake Mechanism?

It's the most important financial lesson of your life!


THE MANDRAKE MECHANISM . . . What is it? It is the method by which the Federal Reserve creates money out of nothing; the concept of usury as the payment of interest on pretended loans; the true cause of the hidden tax called inflation; the way in which the Fed creates boom-bust cycles.

 

[Guest]

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Yields are at historic lows and greenie has the peddle to the metal.

Bonds are like the dot boom bubble. They should not be going up 8% a year for three years straight.

Play with fire get burned.

I will put the flames out but will not be able to save your skin. :shock:

Do what you are going to do - but I am warning you - you are going to get butchered in the F fund. :^

 

[teknobucks]

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Thanks 4 your input…I mean that too bro!

did u see cramer this morning bitchin about goog ceo….blamed the ceo for his bad call.

this guy has the best/most entertaining show on tv…bar none.they better have some de-fib paddles ready on that set.



tekno



ps: have to take wife to pier one today for some power shopping...shoulda kept my mouth shut bout this yuan stuff.

 

[teknobucks]

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DMA wrote:

Yields are at historic lows and greenie has the peddle to the metal.

Bonds are like the dot boom bubble. They should not be going up 8% a year for three years straight.

Play with fire get burned.

I will put the flames out but will not be able to save your skin. :shock:

Do what you are going to do - but I am warning you - you are going to get butchered in the F fund. :^

the louder the screams of anticipation the less likely that an event will turn out the way it is widely expected.

 

[teknobucks]

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post off tt:

When a national economic equilibrium is disturbed a lot of things start moving and the economy enters a period of uncertainty as it searches for a new equilibrium. Remember 2000 when the last bubble busted. The revaluation of the Yuan today (by 2.1%) is a dubious victory for those clamoring for a “fairer trade”. Revaluation (no matter how measured) comes with some nasty side effects we may not like when we get to know them better. For example:

The USA is a consumer import economy and the cost of imports from China just went up 2%. (Consumer spending is the main prop of the US economy – 60%). The entire basket of currency used to fix the Yuan may rise against the dollar. The dollar will appreciate for a while as US interest rates rise. (Gold will consolidate/fall for a while.) The cost of capital in the USA will also rise affecting chiefly the smaller businesses (providing 70% of the new jobs); small business is already short of market-price credit (high yield is about 60% of all new debt) and it will get tighter. Job growth will slow significantly over the next year or so. The housing market will take a dip if interest rates rise significantly (say 1 to 2%); housing is one of two props of the current economy. Those who hold dollar denominated debt and equity will find their investment just slipped in value by 2% and can drop 3/10% daily – no limits. In time investors will sell stocks and possibly invest elsewhere. Stocks will fall gradually then more rapidly. The Chinese and Japanese will not buy US Treasury debt simply because the USA will be a lesser customer, and the dollar debt will not hold its value (2% on currency and 2.5% inflation). Interest rates commence a major increase. The ruin path occurs when debt defaults become significant and the Fed monitizes debt by printing money, as it becomes the last resort buyer of. Debt. Gold will rise swiftly signaling that major problems (stagflation at best) exist in the USA economy.

Who knows how and when it will unfold? As you saw today the speculators are already selling bonds and buying gold. They know the game. The storm flags are flying and Drs. Snow and Greenspan are powerless to do much. We may have undone ourselves.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://users.adelphia.net/~kisacik/ADFlow.html