Market Talk

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S&P just broke past 1200. :shock:

Did the ISM number reassure the market? I know it came in lower than expected, but that expectation was probably based on information before Chicago's data came out yesterday.

Rod, I don't think Deep Throat has anything to do with it. :P
 
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Mike Wrote
Okay, who wants to tell me why in the world the S fund is off to the races right now?

I'm not sure why, but I'm enjoying the ride.......... 40% S fund
 
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Hey the conspiracy was in my favor
yesterdays I was no able totake money
out from tsp & today pay off .

From 40c 50s 10-i today

go to 60-g 40-c Dont likethursdays
& if todays is a good day tomorrow
The beds are a profit taking .
I move already for 1 or 2 days to buy low :D

Hey ,I-fund is geting interesting may be
correction up ,becouse may be oversold
can be a deal & not to miss ... :D
When I come back on friday or monday
will put a least 10 .That my game plan ......euforia ... :^
 
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http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

This article claims the buying is due to the belief that the Fed will slow interest rate hikes due to the weaker than expected ISM data.

This is a bit confusing, since it was claimed that yesterday's weakness was due primarily to weaker than expected Chicago manufacturing data... which usually tips off the market to what kind of ISM data is to be expected. :%

The 10 year bond yield is down to 3.90%. :shock:
 
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lWell I missed the ride. Now, I have 1 hour to make my mind up if I should still get in. It is a big climb today. I thought that Friday was going to be down so if I get in I was thinking of getting out for Friday. Or should I ride it? Tom talked about the coming fall. I also see it and believe it. I see room for growth, right now. I suppose I am the dumb money jumping in :P. I have some money in just want more. LOL
 
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Friday just keeps looking more and more interesting. Today's insanely green, tomorrow will probably be flat to down as people take profits, and Friday has the jobs report. :shock:

If it follows the rest of the data that we've seen, it'll probably come in at or below the market expectation... which may not be a bad thing, since it'd almost force the Fed to not raise rates at their next meeting, considering that the manufacturing sector's expansion is slowing to almost no growth.

Does anyone know where the resistance line is for the S&P? It's up past 1205 now... amazingly, the market has tested darn near the full width of the trading range I posted before the week began. :shock:
 
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Mike wrote:
Friday just keeps looking more and more interesting. Today's insanely green, tomorrow will probably be flat to down as people take profits, and Friday has the jobs report. :shock:
Perfect , I strongly believe that ,people will sit an see
what in fridays employment report while thursdays profit taking ... :^
 
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"Anyone betting that we'll see a reversal today?"

I posted that shortly after midnight. :shock:

I took today's initial movement as an opportunity to take a more defensive position. There's just something about today's market movement that is screaming "herd" at me. :shock:
 
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WHo want to bed that tomorrow will be
profit taken ? !!!!:Dcommon somebody ?
& make my day . :D
 
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said stronger hiring should keep the Fed raising rates, at least another percentage point or more before it's done.
You never know, do you?:*
 
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So much for the dollar/oil correlation. Oil up 5% today at $54.58/barrel and the dollar continues to gain strength in spite ofmost analysts expectations. Neither is good forstox.

The 10year note is now 3.88%...go figure. Stephen Roach says he would not be surprised if it hits 3.5%. This is good for stox.

So what'sthe market going to do now? My guess is we stay in a trading range (key word "guess").

Hey Birchtree, yourexpectation of a fedpausethis month may happen. If not this month maybe the meeting after.Someone has to lead the global economy. Euroland doesn't want to do it. Neither does Asia.
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak
Date June 1, 2005, Closing


Market News.

News:"Krude on the loose!" Krude slices top off rally with 6% surge in heating oil futures. Does anyone know how to get Krude back in the can?



Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at1202.22 up+10.72
CMF (money flow) at0.311, rising.
RSI (strength) at61.8, rising, in midrange.
MACD (trend) at 8.12 up, bullish.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 54.60 up +2.63

Tea Leaves: Green


Yak.

Remarks: holding 0/100 (60C, 40S)
stopraised to 1178
IFT posted to 100%G, will cancel if AM is OK
 
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Summer rally?
Commentary: Warm-weather gains are a thing of the past

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 1, 2005


ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Here's what you should do if your broker starts promoting this or that investment scheme on the basis of a so-called Summer Rally:

Tell him "You're fired!"

That's because there is no statistical support for a Summer Rally in the historical record. The few straws in the wind that hint to the contrary do not withstand scrutiny.

This doesn't mean that the stock market won't rally at some point during the summer months. It undoubtedly will. But that isn't enough to justify becoming more bullish just because the summer has started.

That's because the market stages some sort of rally during every season, just as it also undergoes at least some sort of correction.

In order for the Summer Rally to be a genuine seasonal pattern, it would have to be the case that the market performs exceptionally well during the summer.

Yet, try as I might, I could find no evidence that this is the case.

To be sure, such evidence appears to exist in the month-by-month returns for the ($INDU: news, chart, profile) Dow Jones Industrials Average. (I focused on this market benchmark because data for it extend back to the late 1800s -- longer than any other.)

Over the past 107 years, July on average is the second most profitable month, and August is in third place. That certainly looks impressive.

But upon digging a little deeper, it isn't. Consider what happens when we split the last 107 years in two, creating separate rankings for the period through 1950 and for the period since.

Month Rank based on average return over all years since 1897 Rank based on period from 1897 through 1950 Rank based on years since 1950
June 8 5 9
July 2 2 5
August 3 1 11

As you can see from the table, the summer months' impressive relative returns are being driven by the first half of the last century. The pattern disappears entirely after 1950.

For example, August, the average returns for which are in first place for the period up through 1950, drops to 11th place for the period since. Notice that June's and July's ranks also dropped from the first half of the period to the second.

What happens if, instead of focusing on the three summer months individually, we focus on them as a unit? To appreciate the answer, bear in mind that, if the market's returns were distributed proportionally across all months, we'd expect that 25 percent of the market's returns over the entire year would be produced during the three-month period from June 1 through Aug. 31.

Once again, we find a far different picture when we focus on the first half of the last century. Through 1950, 78 percent of the market's overall returns were produced during the summer months -- more than three times greater than the expected rate.

Since 1950, in contrast, only 11 percent of the market's overall returns have on average been produced during June, July and August -- less than half the expected rate.

These results suggest either that the apparent existence of the Summer Rally in the pre-1950 period was nothing more than a fluke of the data, or that whatever factors were causing it to exist in the first half of the last century have disappeared.

Either way, the investment implication is the same: Don't change your investment strategy because the summer is now upon us.
 
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still bullish however may pull half off table tomm. if we are real green in am:^

bullish engulfing on volume everywhere, da bears are and have been being skinned alive recently
nuke.gif
:shock::shock:

tekno
btw: greg dma mt dubious technition et al..... where did my fan club go???? :?
 
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Coolhand,

In the cause for a pause - the ISM index today the component showing the biggest drop was prices paid, which tumbled to 58.0 from 71.0 in April - a sign that inflationary pressures were easing for manufacturers. May marked the 11th straight month the ISM index has declined. We are now at 51.4, the Fed has never raised rates when the ISM index stood below 50.0. Today the market was in rally mode as investors welcomed the prospect of a possible slow down - or pause - the Fed's rate hikes.

A new FEDguy from Dallas talking 8th inning for rate hikes - no more hikes. This market will be looking across the valley out 6 months from June29-30. The pause will be discounted, inflation remains benign and the expansion will continue even with oil prices moderating. Homeowners who have price appreciation will be taking out home-equity loans to buy stocks which will cintinue to advance and pay increasing dividends. Nee your assistance to keep fuzzy and cuddley bears off the train- only bullish riders need apply. C'mon back to the C and S funds before you are left behind. Take care
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Coolhand,

C'mon back to the C and S funds before you are left behind. Take care
Dennis may be a good time to accumulate some I...for a st bounce anyway???

the frogs are likely to change their mind next month, have another vote, and vote in favor of the NWO...LOL

thinking about taking some profits here...melting up faster than i imagined even.:cool:

tekno

***************************************************************

Europe in crisis after Dutch, French reject treaty




Jun 1, 6:40 PM (ET)


European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso gestures during a news conference in Brussels...
Full Image

By Emma Thomasson and Paul Gallagher

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The European Union was in disarray on Thursday after the Netherlands followed France in resoundingly rejecting the bloc's new constitution, possibly stalling future expansion and disrupting decision making.

The rejection of the charter by two of the six countries that founded the bloc in the 1950s could deal a fatal blow to a treaty designed to make the EU run more smoothly following its enlargement from 15 to 25 states last year.

The votes also cast doubt on the EU's hopes for a stronger foreign policy and its plans to expand further to the western Balkans, Turkey and Ukraine, and raised questions about its appetite for economic reform amid mounting global competition.

The Dutch "No" vote of 61.6 percent was even more decisive than the nearly 55 percent scored by French opponents of the treaty. Turnout was also a strong 62.8 percent, well above the 39 percent in last year's European parliament election.

EU leaders urged member states to press on and ratify the constitution, but analysts said they should admit the document is dead. EU leaders are due to decide how to proceed when they meet for a regular summit on June 16-17.

"To have such a very, very large turnout after the French vote but also to have such an overwhelming "No" is really crushing for the constitutional treaty," said Richard Whitman from the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who was criticized for a lacklustre "Yes" campaign, could face a parliamentary vote of confidence on Thursday but it has little chance of success. Balkenende has said he would not quit.

Latvia's parliament is expected to approve the treaty with a big majority on Thursday, meaning 10 members representing almost half the EU's 454 million citizens will have approved it.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso called on member states to proceed with ratification and not preempt their summit meeting with "unilateral decisions" before then.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Britain faces a decision next week on whether to suspend or go ahead with legislation to pave the way for a referendum.

Poland said on Wednesday it would decide how and when to ratify the constitution after the EU summit. It had planned a referendum in October, but the opposition has demanded a delay.

The Czech Republic said on Wednesday it would seek an extension of the November 2006 deadline for ratification to give countries that vote "No" more time to reconsider.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker voiced concerns on Wednesday about the July 10 referendum on the treaty in his broadly pro-Europe state after the Dutch "No."

"I myself and others must plead the European cause with lots of vigor," he told reporters in Brussels.

Juncker, whose country holds the EU presidency, also said the Dutch and French rejections do not alter the economic fundamentals underpinning the euro, despite the single currency touching a new eight-month low after the Dutch result.

The euro has fallen by nearly 10 percent from its level in mid-March, when markets began factoring in the possibility of national rejections of the treaty.

Former European Central Bank chief Wim Duisenberg agreed with Juncker that the euro should not suffer lasting damage, but said the votes would be a blow to economic reforms in the bloc.

"The political uncertainty created will hamper the efforts in Europe to introduce more structural reforms which are so very, very necessary," Duisenberg told CNN television. "It will take us a couple of years at least to reassemble ourselves."

The result is also likely to make it harder for EU leaders to reach a deal on the long-term EU budget, already difficult because of a looming early German election.

Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm signaled the Netherlands would toughen its demands for a cap to the EU budget after the "No" vote and push for a cut to the Netherlands' per capita contribution, which is the highest of all 25 member states.

The votes could cast doubt on the EU's plans to expand further. Romania and Bulgaria are likely to join in 2007 as their accession treaties have already been signed but membership bids by Turkey, Ukraine and Balkan hopefuls might be disrupted.

"Enlargement is going to be one of the big casualties of this decision," said Mendeltje van Keulen, analyst at the Clingendael Institute near The Hague.

"Romania and Bulgaria have probably just got in time ... but for Croatia or Turkey it's a different story."
 
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