Market Talk

[Birchtree]

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Spaf- C'mon in. The berries in the be ar patch have gotten so plump they fall off the bush in your hand. This is when they taste the best, especially the rasberries. The average earnings growth rate for the sp500 companies has climbed to 13.6% from 12.1% a week ago, with materials and energy companies continuing to lead the way. I believe the consenses was for 7%.

 

[The_Technician]

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Here's a fair and consice report about Greenspuds comments yesterday....

There's special mention on energy prices, low wage growth , and such.....:^

http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050503/bs_nm/economy_fed_dc;_ylt=AkqPLlmcsK6ZceH48wwqkKFZ.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

I wonder who will make what out of this.....

The Technician:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Spaf,

Do you mind if I mention something.....

U sure you're not at an end of a recent run up....??? Taken in consideration of the last trend (green dots are positive runs)......

The thing I don't see is the Stoch bottoming out.....and the previous stoch peak the market actually went down.....stoch's can fool you in various ways.....I personally have several that say the market is on a rise but the price has barely risen over the last several weeks....its been unusual in pattern..... I usually look for two bottoms in the stoch at this point with the price holding......that kinda reassures you that its not going down on the next downer.....

I believe given the market data such as this plot we still have something to look forward to....:^......of course I'm not optimistic at the moment....:shock:.....but until I see something that has some defining moment, I'll stay a pessimist.....not worth risking my retirement over bad judgement for a short period.....

I'm careful with what I see......and how its interpreted.....especially during times of high risk such as now.:i

The Technician:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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The Technician wrote:

Spaf,

Do you mind if I mention something.....

U sure?

Mention away!

U sure?.....Heck no!

Charts are only indicators of the past. So... not having a crystal ball (or a friendly insider) I try and take as many indicators as I can. Primarily I look at two factors: Technicals and Fundamentals and then use the indicators offered by these two elements. If the tools (charts) of technicals and the economics of fundamentals weigh bullish or bearish...thats the way I trend.

The P-SAR is for establishing stops, but it makes a heck of a neat trending indicator.

Spaf

 

[Dave M]

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With the trading day one hour old, we are underway! Now to check the news and make a determination about tomorrow -- should I maintain, increase my exposure, or pull out now?

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

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Spaf,

U know that news from Greenspud yesterday still has delays in it ....not just in its reporting data gathering time period but.....energy prices here recently will affect the economy for quite a while.....so there are delays in the current market.....

I can't emphasize enough about waiting for that second bottom in the stoch at this time.....even then I would be as cautious as possible.........a knife down action could come at anytime, especially this month....besides, that 1229 level the S&P estabilished in March was a long term high.......meaning we should be going the other way for a while......at least 1-1/2 years....

Too many investors of the market don't want to get in at a long term high.....so the market is going to hear a vacumn sound for a while...:?...my accumulation data indicates its .......its a fools market at this time....and they are using any news at this time to say "it's OK to get in".........:^......just think of the market news makersas Used Car salesmen selling you a lemon...:shock:...that should take care of any anxious feelings one may get....

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong on the cautious side......and I'm only in for short short periods...........I'll wait for that knife to fall or until I feel comfortable with the stability of the market......:^

The Pastcan tell you alot about the future.....especially in the markets....

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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The Technician wrote:

Spaf,

U know that news from Greenspud.

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong on the cautious side

that knife to fall

or until I feel comfortable with the stability of the market......:^

Greenspud Huh? Is that the same guy I call The dollar general chief???

It's always good to be right. However, I had rather be wrong, then not do anything. But, then again nothing wrong with cautious!

The TSP 5hr to 2day transfer delay can be a knife. Made a decision to place extras with internet broker. Drather pay taxes and have it available then suffer the knife.

Thats the reason they made Martini's. PS: Don't mess with your funds if U can't count the olives!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

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I suppose I'm a bit cautious right now.....but I'll feel better when next week and then when the month goes bye bye......

I rather be right.....period.....its too hard to make up losing money...:^

:dude:

 

[Dave M]

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Caution is good, patience pays. However, nothing ventured -- nothing gained. So I am venturing cautiously!

My fear is that a too-greatrise today will prompt profit-taking tomorrow. That is the way this market has been going. My interpretation is that the horrible recent history has engendered big losses out there that must be made up as quickly as possible by the people that charge for their services, and thus the choppy market. Everytime it shows an improvement, wham! the selling resumes.

Therefore I am withdrawing today. I'll take what I get and letothers take the remainder. The year is still young.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician and Dave

I suspect we are in a transition period for a sea change. You want to make me sing, and I am not on prozac. I wll stay 100%C fund and enjoy this ride. During this recent correction the DJUS Basic Materials Index bottomed lower than the Dow at 10079. The Materials Index went from a high of up 8% to a low of -9%. It is currently forming a W bottom pattern off the lows. It doesn't get any better than this. Most of the fast money will be made in the next two weeks. The shorts will bleed all the way up.

 

[robo]

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Bob Brinkers news letter is positive going forward this year. He thinks there are likely to be a large number of frustrated bears this year when the market makes new highs. In his view it's not the time to be a "Nervous Nellie" I'm very nervous, I hope Bob is correct, and I'm still 100% in stocks. I sure hope this rally can take us to the 1200 level on the S&P over the next couple of weeks.

 

[mlk_man]

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I don't know birch, not lookin' good............: http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/04/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

 

[learning]

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I lost my crystal ball. Wish I could find it. I have never been so confused by a market. I go from wanting to be all in to wanting to be all out. I could cry.:*So I decided a new tactic will be used. First I did not get in on time for tommorow so I will stay out tell Monday. Monday is when I will seriously start thinking of going in.

Now, I have set up my future contrabutions to be aggresive in stocks. I will keep track of how much money I would have in from this day forward in stocks if I never moved this money. So when I move money it will be money that I have already earned. Unless I can see a serious loss I will stay in and ride any direction it goes with future contrabutions. Any chance of an up swing and I am in with this money should I ever move out. So in affect what I will do is keep two seperate books. I have about 13 more years to gomax,so this is enough time to play this. So I will look at it as two seperat retirement plans. :! The Money I have already is enough to move around and see how I do.

I will see how I like this. Way I am going though I just may sit down and pull my hair out.:shock:

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 4, Closing


Market News.

News: Party in market area. Townfolks hit big pinata, candy flew all over the place!

Krude horseman back in can! However, this PM, Krude got bailed out by slick lawyer. So....Krude was back up 63 cents at 50.13.

Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles: S&P at1175.65 popped up +14.48 :^
CMF money flow at 0.032, rising.
RSI strength at 54.2, rising
MACD moving averages at -4.98, rising bullish.

Tea Leaves:Ha, sweet green tea.


Yak.

Remarks:Holding 0/100. Gotta love these pinatas.

Rgds, and be careful Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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Spaf,

Where is the wonder Woman? Now is when she should be cranking up the motor to haul some money away. Wonder Woman please come back.

 

[pyriel]

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Does anybody have the track record of TSP funds on the days they announced the job report for Jan-April? I thought job reports for Jan-April did not make expectations but I don't know if the market went up or down within those days. Can somebody point that out. Thanks...

 

[Rod]

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pyriel wrote:

Does anybody have the track record of TSP funds on the days they announced the job report for Jan-April? I thought job reports for Jan-April did not make expectations but I don't know if the market went up or down within those days. Can somebody point that out. Thanks...

I've been tracking everything (DJIA, S&P, NAZ, etc)since Nov 04. Give me some dates, and I'll see if I'm able to tell you how the market reacted.

For the paricular Funds, you can go to the TSP site.:^

 

[tsptalk]

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pyriel wrote:

Does anybody have the track record of TSP funds on the days they announced the job report for Jan-April? I thought job reports for Jan-April did not make expectations but I don't know if the market went up or down within those days. Can somebody point that out. Thanks...

I believe the jobs report is announced on the first Friday of each month.

 

[pyriel]

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Rod, sorry, I wasn't specific enough. You know the job report will come out this Friday. What are the track record of c/s/i against those days that they announced the job report for Jan-Apr 05? I'm trying to see if I should bail on Friday or not... Thanks... Sorry, I don't know the dates they announced them for Jan-Apr. Can somebody help?

 

[Rod]

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pyriel wrote:

Rod, sorry, I wasn't specific enough. You know the job report will come out this Friday. What are the track record of c/s/i against those days that they announced the job report for Jan-Apr 05? I'm trying to see if I should bail on Friday or not... Thanks... Sorry, I don't know the dates they announced them for Jan-Apr. Can somebody help?

I'm trying to Google it... but like Tom said, if it's released on the first Friday of each month, we simply need to find a site that lists the stats since Jan, then compare that to the first Friday and possibly even the following Monday against the C,S,I prices on the TSP site.