Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday

Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak Date April 17, 2005


Market Behavior, and weather.

-> http://www.businessweek.com
-> http://www.reuters.com
-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Weather: Climate now bearish after low breakout from previous trading range. Now monsoon season. Economy remains in fairly good condition, dispite recent sentiment of fear that over shadowed last week's market. Some analysist called it irrational despondency. The Bull market ended on or about April 22nd, with the primary direction now established as bearish. Expect trading cycles to follow.


Trends, charts, and tea leaves.

Trends: At present the market is looking for a support level, this can be anyone's guess.

-> http://www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
-> http://www.markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp

Charts: S&P ended Friday the 15th at 1143.43 :{
P-SAR was showing 4th red day. :{
CMF money flow was at -0.227 :{
RSI strength was at 30.7 :{
MACD moving averages were at -7.48 and bearish. :{

Attachment: S&P (1 yr) chart, added: 100dMA & mkt directions. Careful, daily charts can get one hypnotized.

Tea leaves: Currently.......all red.


Yak.

.........Fold 'em, Hold 'em, Walk away, or run!........

Remarks: Holding 60-G/40-stocks. Caution: Do not feed bears with TSP funds!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[mbehr55]

imported post

For those of us who ignored the "signals" and missed the boat, what do the tea leaves suggest we do for damage control? A move to 100% G seems to be the best course of action to allow time to "lick our wounds." However, we all want to place ourselves in the best possible position to "catch the train" as it starts the climb. What would the experienced "contrarians" do?

 

[smedlap]

imported post

More pain before "this train" gets moving again. Slowing US economy,slowing global economy, poor growth in Europe, higher interest rates, high oil prices cutting disposable cash, less consumer spending, summer vacation months approaching which results in less factory production.Not sure where the positive data is less then a few companiesachieving such.Maybe one should beach the boat for G fund repairs until mid August when the market is sure to be good for bottom fishing.Ten percent more loss is plausible.I fund or C fund ride fromAugust on out. Should be able to get 1300 by year end in S&P for a recovery to easeour salty wounds. Everyone should havesucked insome sea water these past 4 months. Think the S&P will mirror last year with a continued sinking decline thru summer. Next week's data should add to losses. 100% G fund and staying until maybe 23 August.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Selling low = loss :X

Staying the course might bring more red, however the economy is good, not great, but good. Sentiment and media hype (last week) was irrational despondency.

I expect a support level to be established, when ??? Then we might expect bearish cycles like we had last spring/fall. When a cycle tops out go G, when it bottoms out go stocks. Ya got to be quick about it though!

Remember we have our TSP funds in index funds. The funds follow the market. The market declined. It doesn't make the funds bad!

Take the daily talk and charts as fluctuations and read the weekly / yearly charts as direction. Daily stuff can get you hypnotized.

Consider your age. Keep assets equal to your age in the G or F fund. Diversify the stock funds by how well they perform.

With the market in bearish territory, I'll be discontinuing daily reports and leave it to TOM!and others.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Rod]

imported post

Wow... the Nikkei is down 2 1/2% at open.:s Let's hope it turns around.

God Bless:^

 

[learning]

imported post

Now here is something to think about if you have money in the market. You do not have a loss until you sell. If you hold then you only have a paper loss and still have the amount of stock you bought. If the stock goes up then you will have your money back. If the stock goes way up and you do not sell then you only have a paper gain. You still have the same amount of stock that you bought. Translation you make or lose your money when you sell.

What does this mean. Well you need to look at history. If you were all the way in across the board in the great stock market crash in 29 then you would have made your money back in several years. Infact you would have been up in time. Now, some stocks you would have lost money and never got it back. However, that would have been made up by other stocks.

What was it 87 or 88 where we had another big crash. If you held your stocks across the board you would have had it back and then some in the 90's.

Now, go look at the market in 2001. We managed to make it back up to around the levels we were before. Or so I believe. Go check not hard to do. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, PLEASE.

So if you have time and you do not believe that we are going somewhere we have not been before then perhaps it is better to hang on. Of course we could be in a new era and things will not be as they were before. This is what you have to decide. Get out and the market may take off like a rocket and leave you befind to try and jump in. This is why some people say put the money in and dont move it.

Yes I move my money. I cost average move in and out. Only on a few occasions have I moved large amounts in or out at one time. (Large amounts is relative. If you have a billion then it would be like the cost of tea. If you live in a third world country a dollar is what you may make in a year.) So I say large amounts, I mean for me.

I am looking at possibly waiting for another Santa Clause Rally. Perhaps that is what I will do. Move in fast and out fast. There is risk in that though.

So when asked should you get in or out? I say you need to decide. Is the market going to return some day and just ride it out. Or, are we in a new era where the market may never come back. (Perhaps, it won't because you will retire in a year or two. We may take another version of a 9-11-01. All this beforeyou retire. I do not know, if I did I would have a trillion.)It is your retirement, do what you have the heart to do.

Think and research. Your retirement. This is good place to get ideas. However, you have to do your part and learn and then make the best decision you can. Do not depend on others. If you threw darts every year at a stock market board you would on average pick better stocks then the so called experts. As for me I'm still learning.

Good Luck and take care.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

learning wrote:

Now here is something to think about if you have money in the market. You do not have a loss until you sell.

No disrespect to learning asI've said this before... but I hate that thinking. The only way you don't have a loss thereis for tax purposes. Ouraccount values havedropped. You can't take out the money you used to have. You can't borrow against money that is not in your account anymore, etc. We have aloss. I agree it will eventually come back in our accounts, but try telling that to someone who bought CIEN for $150 a share and now holds itfor$1.92.

The IRS is the only one who doesn't know about that loss.

 

[pyriel]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

learning wrote:

Now here is something to think about if you have money in the market. You do not have a loss until you sell.

No disrespect to learning asI've said this before... but I hate that thinking. The only way you don't have a loss thereis for tax purposes. Ouraccount values havedropped. You can't take out the money you used to have. You can't borrow against money that is not in your account anymore, etc. We have aloss. I agree it will eventually come back in our accounts, but try telling that to someone who bought CIEN for $150 a share and now holds itfor$1.92.

The IRS is the only one who doesn't know about that loss.

Agree...

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

With the market in bearish territory, I'll be discontinuing daily reports and leave it to TOM!and others.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

At the request of others, I'll continue the daily reports.

Got a new laptop from gateway, that I can take home, when we go there. Now I gotta figure out how the thing works!

Rgds!

Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

will monday bring disaster??

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

 

[Spaf]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

learning wrote:

You do not have a loss until you sell.

The only way you don't have a loss thereis for tax purposes. Ouraccount values havedropped. You can't take out the money you used to have. You can't borrow against money that is not in your account anymore, etc. We have aloss. I agree it will eventually come back in our accounts, but try telling that to someone who bought CIEN for $150 a share and now holds itfor$1.92.

Termanologywe have various losses:

Paper loss......what Learning was speaking about.
Value loss...... what Tom points out.
Share loss..... what Tom points out with funkey funds.
Sleep loss...... what happens when you invest 100 %
Dollar loss...... when you buy gasoline.
Hair loss......... when market declines.

Please feel free to comment or add any other pertinent market type losses!

Rgds!

Spaf

 

[SystemTrader]

imported post

teknobucks wrote:

will monday bring disaster??

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

There's lots of talk about it.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48109&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

This is from a board with many full-time traders, money managers, etc. -- and a lot of wannabees, too.

I never make predictions like that, and have no idea what tomorrow will bring. I'm more interested in the intermediate/long-term trend, anyway.

 

[SystemTrader]

imported post

learning wrote:

Now here is something to think about if you have money in the market. You do not have a loss until you sell. If you hold then you only have a paper loss and still have the amount of stock you bought... If you were all the way in across the board in the great stock market crash in 29 then you would have made your money back in several years. Infact you would have been up in time... What was it 87 or 88 where we had another big crash. If you held your stocks across the board you would have had it back and then some in the 90's.

Now, go look at the market in 2001. We managed to make it back up to around the levels we were before. Or so I believe. Go check not hard to do. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, PLEASE.

Learner, here are a few comments.

Re: 1929: If you entered the market in 1929 before the crash, it would take you 25.2 years to recoup your losses. That's according to an article in U.S. News and World Report from 2001. Note: this doesn't consider reinvested dividends, which would've shortened the period. On the flip side, I'm not sure if it considers inflation, which would lengthen the period.

Sidenote: 1966-1982 was another very flat period, where your inflation-adjusted gains would be nominal, assuming you did the buy-and-hold (buy-and-hope?) approach.

Re: 2000-2002 bear market: The S&P 500peaked at 1527 in March of 2000. (It closed at 1142 last Friday.) In fact, all the stock indices peaked early in 2000, and have never returned to those levels. It's anybody's guess when they will.

If you avoided themajority of the 2000 - early 2003 bear market, and re-entered in early/mid 2003, your real (not paper) gains would be far, far better than a buy-and-hold approach. Now this may sound like 20/20 hindsight, but many timing indicators and systems developed beforethat bear market began were flashing sell signals in thebeginningstages of the bear market. These same timing models either avoided the entirebear marketor only invested during the few bullish periods (e.g., late Sep-Dec 2001, late Oct-Dec 2002).

Bottom line: paper losses amount to real account drawdowns that can take years to recover. There's another side to the market timing/buy-and-hold debate...

Regards,

ST

 

[learning]

imported post

All very good ideas to be sure. This is why I said I cost average in and out overall. I do go in and out. I'm out right now and avoided a lot of bleeding this year. From January tell now I am not doing as good as the G Fund but better then the others. For the Last 5 months I am doing better then all the Funds. That is not hard. Thanks November and December. I did want to point out and did point out another idea to a person that is trying to learn. They need to educate them selves and they will do that. Not just listen to hwat others say here but read. Now, the 29 crash... I read a long time ago that overal that market recovered and made up losses in a short time. I forgot the time but believe it was before the 30's were over. The Great Depression if you will. At least when we were in WWII. Markets have and do recover in the past. Point is how long can you stay in? How long will it take for the market to recover? If you know or really believe the market is going down bail. However, you also need to understand you may miss the turnaround. That can happen overnight and be a huge increase. LAST It is your decision. You need to research and take the responsibility. If you don't then you are leaving your self open to who knows who. With Great Respect to all here, you have to learn and take responsibility for what you do and that was my main idea. Learn the other theroies and go from there. Best of luck to all.

P.S. Thanks Spaf for your continued comments. I for one am glad you will continue.

P.S.S. Thanks to all that responded to my previous message. Why? Gets the ideasgoing :!

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

I'm kinda thinking the S&P will peak out near term around lower 1180's on this rebound....we'll see.

For those holding through last week:shock:, Ya'll hang in there.....hopefully this will be a good rebound.

Those that got in Friday:i.....I hope that was a smart move......I with ya!!



Looking good so far this morning!:u

 

[Dave M]

imported post

My feeling is there will be a lift this week. Prices are so beaten-down that good buying opportunities are bound to be attractive. Poorly-performing overseas markets, lackluster earning reports and high oil prices tell us that it will not be anything like a sustained rally. Just a one or two day bump back to respectability.

SoI am considering moving a little into the market today, say 20%, in an attempt to catch a little of the wave, should there be one. In on Tuesday, out on Thursday kind of thing. I have beaucoup 1st-quarter losses to make up for If I'm going to get anywhere this year. Is now the time? I will be watching the action closely for the next hour.

Dave

 

[smine]

imported post

Rod are you staying with I fund or bailing out?

 

[Dave M]

imported post

I could not make up my mind so I flipped a coin. It came up tails so I am waiting another 24 hours. How's that for a system? LOL.

Dave

 

[Guest]

imported post

Dave M wrote:

I could not make up my mind so I flipped a coin. It came up tails so I am waiting another 24 hours. How's that for a system? LOL. Dave

That's more or less what I just decided went 50/50 G/Equities and then split from there.

 

[mbehr55]

imported post

Decided this morning to go 50% G and 50 % F. Wished I'd done it last Wednesday.