Market Talk / September 10th - 16th

[ocean]

Congrats to those were in the stock funds today. As for me, hopefully I will catch up tomorrow.

Ocean

 

[robo]

Nice rally today, and the shorts got hurt big time.... I made a nice chunk myself, but lets be careful here... The Boyz like to run it up a final time before they let it drop... I'm still bullish, but use some caution here if your adding new longs....

Remember, It's option expiration week.

Our friend at Sentiment Trader points out that buying after a big rally the Tuesday of an option expiration week has usually been a losing proposition 60% of the time the next week...

Short-term we are now overbought. Stay nibble!!!


Good Trading/Investing for those that are long!

 

[Birchtree]

That was an impressive move for the SPX on an intraday under 1312. Can we take it to 1326 before the close? Give me altitude and not amplitude. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

We are in "throttle up" mode. The Dow Transports are ripping Teddy a new one today. It's time for the shorts to get off the tracks.

 

[Birchtree]

Rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages contribute to 53% jump in foreclosures. So sad, they should have bought stock and made enough money to risk a descent mortgage. You have to take your chances no matter what one does - don't cry for me Argentina. There is always another time to start over and next time take a smaller bite, fools.

 

[Spaf]

Dat Bull is still running. It must really hurt, being bit by a Doji Dragonfly!....

 

[Birchtree]

I only got two words for ya: "so sweet".

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
September 13, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks rally cont'd! Solid earnings cont'd!

Con-Yak...................................What about the September blues?

Jester-Yak................................Crude suppplies down! Gas supplies up?..

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1318.07, up +4.96
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.275, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.425, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........75.78, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 65.56 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................63.97, up +0.21
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Green.

Tin Box:
Position....................................70% Socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1305. Trail: 1292.

 

[Birchtree]

No one is counting on a huge new bull phase - except me of course. And perhaps Tom. 2007 will most likely be a buy and hold type of bull market. The targets were falling today with regularity - but I won't bore anyone with the gory details.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Fivetears]

No bore Birch... this is the stuff I (we all) enjoy; good personal and statistical input.

No one is counting on a huge new bull phase - except me of course. And perhaps Tom. 2007 will most likely be a buy and hold type of bull market. The targets were falling today with regularity - but I won't bore anyone with the gory details.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[robo]

9-13-06

Stocks: Hope Triumphs Over Fear

Since the market correction started in May, investors have been worried about a myriad of problems. After the initial three-legged decline (a typical Elliott Wave A-B-C pattern usually seen in a correction), we have had a rally since July against this Wall of Worry.

We are now seeing that Wall of Worry beginning to crumble. While that is a positive for stocks -- it causes investors who had fled to the sidelines and money market accounts to start buying again -- it suggests that a great deal of faith is being put in the ability of the economy to avoid a serious economic slowdown next year.

It's unlikely that the Rosy Scenario will pan out exactly as the crowd thinks. Oh, we think the economy will avoid a recession, probably after the Fed comes to its senses and starts easing rates, but there are likely to be many potholes in the road.

This Friday morning we will be seeing some significant news on Consumer Prices and it will be instructive to see how the markets react to this data. That will also mark the day options and futures for September expire, a day called Quadruple Witching Day. The news is likely to add to the volatility substantially

 

[Show-me]

Futures went negative, EuroZone turning down, and the dollar is sinking. Look like 7:30 will be exciting.

 

[Beavis]

Retail sales up 0.2% instead of forecast of down 0.2%. Core up 0.2% vs forecast of 0.3%. Looks like a good sign, but we'll have to see how will the market reacts. Let 'em run.

 

[Spaf]

Special Edition - The Catfish Channel

The Kingdom of TSP
Catfish Channel
Special Edition
September 14, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks mixed! [$SPX] Channel top 1330; bottom 1298.

Con-Yak...................................Last Buy (9-11), came too quick for TSP, but ok for traders?

Jester-Yak................................Add the Doji Dragonfly to the signals!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1316.28, dn -1.79, made higher lows.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.238, Slight drop.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.887/5.402 crossing with weak divergence. [Note: Using 8,17,9]
............ (MACD) (Hist)...............up at +0.485
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........91.62, increasing in overbought.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 63.99 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................63.22, dn -0.75
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Green.

Tin Box:
Position....................................70% Socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1305. Trail: 1292.

 

[Birchtree]

I just realized I'm only $0.07 away from meeting my yearly goal of a $1.00 gain in the dull C fund. Should I follow the strategy of our eminent tally leaders and seek the G fund for the rest of the year? Pocket the gains and be satiaited. Nah - being a simple investor is more fun. Maybe I can collect another $1.00 before the year ends. Snort.

 

[Fivetears]

You'll see at least that... and then some.

I just realized I'm only $0.07 away from meeting my yearly goal of a $1.00 gain in the dull C fund. Should I follow the strategy of our eminent tally leaders and seek the G fund for the rest of the year? Pocket the gains and be satiaited. Nah - being a simple investor is more fun. Maybe I can collect another $1.00 before the year ends. Snort.

 

[Fivetears]

Gonna re-tool the Kingdom oil markers, Spaf?

 

[Spaf]

Gonna re-tool the Kingdom oil markers, Spaf?

IMHO, we need to rethink the market. Energy is down! That was a big strain on everything. Storm counts have been readjusted lower. The doom and gloom sentiment is fading! Major companies i.e., Ford who were losing money are restructuring. Other companies have been reporting good earnings. So the fundamentals are looking up! Thus the analysis indicators are in a upward channel. At certain points one can buy (low) and sell (high).

The problem is in understanding when a trend is reversing, going into a pull-back. The better we understand the trends, the better positions we can take.

No secret method. I posted what myself and another member are working on. You might call it trend trading, channel trading, whatever. It's got good points and bad points. Some things we are still working out.

But, we're willing to share, what we're working on.

If nothing else, maybe we will learn something about entry (buy) and exit (sell) signals.

Rgds
Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

Crude oil is at $62.80 and that is not in the current CPI figures. Throttle up for lift off.

 

[TiCKed]

A lot of diving for the G fund this morning!

Anyone care to clue me in? Someone see a shark?