Market Talk / October 22nd - 28th

[Birchtree]

It's not always easy to put a positive spin on a down day, but when you anticipate a DCA either from allocation or dividends it helps. Next week is a good dividend payout week so I'll be patient and absorb any pain as a small blessing for the good of the whole. Fate is my pilot these days.

 

[James48843]

DANG.

Yesterday I left the office at Noon for a regional run on the road. Swtiched everything into stocks at ten minutes before the deadline. Then was out of touch for the next 24 hours.

Came back into civilization this afternoon, after the trading deadline, only to see the bubble had begun to burst this morning.

Look out below. Could be a big down day on Monday and a bloody tuesday as well.

And me, caught fully in stocks once more.

I HATE when that happens.

 

[Birchtree]

Come on now let's be serious don't you simply enjoy a good pummelling every now and then? It always leaves me refreshed - like after a good sunny rain. I'm known here abouts as a cycle rider - me and the Ducati have ridden many cycles up and down, we cherish the thrill of pain and how beneficial it can be to restore lustre to a portfolio. Ostensibly be right and sit tight. Snort

 

[fedgolfer]

Birchy, you're not givin' us the ole pump 'n dump, are you? HA!

 

[robo]

DANG.

Yesterday I left the office at Noon for a regional run on the road. Swtiched everything into stocks at ten minutes before the deadline. Then was out of touch for the next 24 hours.

Came back into civilization this afternoon, after the trading deadline, only to see the bubble had begun to burst this morning.

Look out below. Could be a big down day on Monday and a bloody tuesday as well.

And me, caught fully in stocks once more.

I HATE when that happens.

Possible, but not likely!



Thursday, October 26, 2006

When Money Meets a Market
The flood of cash into the stock market continues as the market heads toward an intermediate term target -- a "gate". But, more importantly, the gate the market will encounter is more of a time limit rather than a price limit.

Due to the end of the fiscal year for many mutual funds at the end of the month, final trades must be done very soon to affect performance by the last day of October (Hallowe'en). Fund managers who are lagging the market have little time to make up for lost ground. That is putting a lot of buying pressure on the market right now.

The rise in the S&P 500 is also putting pressure on the short sellers. They are losing money every day. Thus, we have an explosive situation near term. At least we know when we should see a change -- and a correction.

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[Birchtree]

No pump and dump on my part - I'm basically a collector of fine equities and a number of mutual funds. I'm now set until 2010 when the next cycles roll in to depress the markets. Go back and look at all the volatility that transpired on the top from 1999-2000. That's what you call six gun territory and I'll be waiting with my dual pearl handles, when a similar situation arrives, and it always does. I'll need at least $0.50 changes to make my energy output efficient. Bigger moves means bigger money.

 

[robo]

I'm headed to watch Kudlow, "The Greatest Bull Every Told."

I normally don't watch him, but I want to see how they spin the numbers we recevied today. Don't worry Dennis, I'm sure he will say Goldilocks is on track and NO HARD LANDING.

I'm now a Independent and will never claim Rep's/Dem's again. Both have good points. It's the Far Left and Far Right is why I'm now an independent.

The middle of both parties are almost the same! Ya, I would vote for another John Kennedy.

Oh boy, they just said all is well! Hey, some guy named Birchtree just called in to talk with Kudlow. All he said was SNORT SNORT!

Go Birchtree, and I hope you have a nice weekend!

In fairness to Kudlow he does have guests on both side of the issue and is fair and balanced most of the time! The Bull/Bear debate is getting good, got to go.

 

[Fivetears]

Since 2001... the C,S,& I Funds have never turned in a negative E.O.M. return for the month of November. Trading ranges are as follows:
C Fund = 0.91% - 7.62%
S Fund = 3.47% - 7.84%
I Fund = 2.22% - 6.16%

I suppose there's a first time for everything; Hope not though.
The S Fund may be the place to be; Buy & Holders.

 

[Birchtree]

I personally have minor concerns about the forward longevity of the small caps and internationals - but not enough to be proactive. I've peeled off some small cap profits awhile back and may continue later in the Spring - I'm not in any hurry. Issues making new highs expanded to over 350 this past week - which usually means we have several weeks to several months remaining on the upside. Snort.

 

[Fivetears]

If you're prediction holds true Birch, the C-Fund will be the "Sleeper" at the midnight market drags through December '06; a little hidden "sneeze" through the ol' bull nostrils would be a welcome sight.

 

[Birchtree]

The exciting times are yet to evolve and are still in front of us, not behind us. How one structures and positions their strategy will determine the degree of success one will achieve. I'm a be right and sit tight in my manure pile. Any thunderous capitulation by hedge fund bears would be a contrary sign that the rally is ending. They're hanging tough and even further increasing their short programs. The dumb money is still scared to death to enter the market - that's good. When dumb money is running the show you need to mistrust the market action - it's all emotion. Presently, and I say this with some gladness, real estate is at risk of deflating and more money will flow to equities. I'm waiting for the next rocket to ignite.

 

[Birchtree]

From Roberet McHugh - sell right now. Since August 25th, 1999 the DJIAs have formed their most significant tops within one week of a consecutive series of Fibbonacci weeks from that date. The next top is scheduled for the week of November 17, 2006 +/1 week, shortly after the coming U.S. election. One point to make here, is that the declines that followed these tops were severe." The Birchtree says bring it on - I'm the guy standing in the middle of the road - go through not around. I'm like the "CROW". I have all these dividends wanting and wanton for lower prices.

 

[Fivetears]

Robert McHugh Ph.D. - President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com.

Fibonacci Retracement: A term used in technical analysis that refers to the likelihood that a financial asset's price will retrace a large portion of an original move and find support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

Notes: Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool used by many technical traders to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. The notion of retracement is used in many indicators such as Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, Elliott Wave theory and more.

Neat stuff Birch.

 

[Spaf]

Will be closing this week's thread and gettin a new one!
Thanks for all the posts and views!
Regards
Spaf