Market Talk / October 15th - 21st

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP​

Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition​

October 15, 2006 ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................SP gains 1.2% for the week, 8.9% in Q3. Vestors talk of more gains!

Con-Yak...................................How great is the risk for a pullback?

Jester-Yak................................This could be a re-run!.....Gone Fishing!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1365.62, up +16.04 for the week!
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.313, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+10.309/9.193 diverging.
............ (MACD) (Hist)...............up at +1.115
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........95.30, flat.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 73.58 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................58.59, dn -1.19 for the week.
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert (-1%): 1352. Trail (-2%): 1339.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.59..F=10.94..C=15.04..S=17.93..I=20.44
....(1 week past)........G=11.58..F=10.98..C=14.86..S=17.48..I=20.28
....(2 week past)........G=11.57..F=11.00..C=14.70..S=17.24..I=20.15
....(3 week past)........G=11.56..F=11.01..C=14.47..S=16.99..I=19.91
....(4 week past)........G=11.55..F=10.90..C=14.52..S=17.19..I=19.83

Le Chart​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
[Channel annotations added]​

 

[robo]

Stocks: Market Celebrates as Bears Turn Bullish

The stock market continued into new high ground Friday, despite an early dip, as many of the bears who had sold short at prices far below rushed into the market to buy. Right now, this conversion process is showing up as a definite slew toward option call buying. OEX speculators are in the overly-bullish category right now and QQQ speculators started joining the bullish parade Friday afternoon after being consistently bearish for the last thousand-plus Dow points of rally. This conversion of bears to bulls is providing the final bit of rocket fuel to get the market to ever-higher highs. Once that fuel has been burned, though, who will be left to buy?

While overstimulated bulls spout visions of a soaring bull market which makes the NASDAQ Bubble of the 'Nineties look like "play school," these visions are delusions of unhinged minds -- not unlike some of the preposterous bear forecasts of a Dow going to 41 you've heard in the not-so-distant-past. No kidding, this is some of the trash that's being spewed on the Internet. This kind of "trash-talk" is very dangerous for the average investor since it entices them to plunge in right at the top and then leaves them stranded with a market likely to quickly taking on water and sinking like a stone.

In case you've looked in your SPAM folder recently, you've probably noticed an exponential increase in tout email for micro-stocks "poised to explode!" Remind you of something? Yes, that's right, the Bubble has sprouted wings again. It only took the market six years to recover from the last one. Maybe recovery from this one won't take quite as long since we're getting such a lot of practice with asset bubbles.

Are we about to repeat the deep bear slide of 2000-2003? Or, is this coming dip a buying opportunity? Subscribers should read our weekend notes, linked directly below:

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

TARGET REACHED
by Dominick
a.k.a."spwaver"
TradingTheCharts.com
October 15, 2006

Last week I stated:

At this point it sure does seems as the real number that the SPX wants to challenge is my two month old target of 1360. Amazing to watch this train run everyone over as it’s destined to reach it. We have not been able to issue a sell signal yet!

Next week we will be glued to the screens watching what happens at 1360. Do they vibrate around it for a bit or just reverse from it?

We hit the number! The week started out in a range, which seemed to be building a triangle, until the news hit the wires that a plane had crashed into a N.Y. building. As soon as the news wires verified that it wasn’t any kind of terrorist act, the bulls once again showed the bears who was in control. Condolences go out to the families of the deceased. The SPX rallied off those lows to close Friday at 1365. My target, which was issued exactly 2 months ago today, was perfectly hit and The SPX now sits five points above it.

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dominick/2006/1015.html

 

[James48843]

Tom- you're a METS fan?

Well, maybe that explains it.

Here in "Tiger Country", we haven't seen a team like this since 1984.

Perhaps it's a good time to recap the "American League vs. National League" theory of the market.

I don't know how it's been doing lately, but in years past there was something about the National Leage winning the World Series that was a postive for markets, and if the American League won it was trouble ahead for stocks.

Personnally, I don't know the merit of that theroy. But then again, I'm a Tigers fan.....

 

[mayday]

How did Greenspan put it? (Irrational Exuberance)

 

[CountryBoy]

MarketWatch
U.S. stock futures inch higher after rally
Last Update: 7:21 AM ET Oct 16, 2006

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock market futures inched higher on Monday after last week's rally, with results from Wachovia Corp. and Mattel Inc. giving further reassurance over earnings quality.

S&P 500 futures inched up 0.8 of a point at 1,374.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2 points at 1,741.25. Dow industrial futures rose 3 points.

Futures have been trading in a fairly narrow range on Monday, with the S&P 500 contract falling to as low as 1,371.70.

Since the start of the third quarter, the Dow industrials have jumped 7.8%, the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 8.9% and the S&P 500 has rose 8.4%.

The Dow hit a fresh record high three times last week, buoyed by a solid start to the third-quarter earnings season.

Investors concerned with a slowdown in the U.S. economy are also looking to fourth-quarter and first-quarter earnings guidance on offer from leading companies......

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={03CC8810-A590-437E-B85E-EF3F47354DDB}&siteid=

CB

 

[mlk_man]

Here in "Tiger Country", we haven't seen a team like this since 1984.

I call it the Pudge Rodriquez syndrom. Ever since my Rangers traded him, he's won a pennant with the Marlins and now I'm hoping he wins one with the Tigers. I always liked Pudge.

 

[EW_ret]

I telephoned my mother (age 78) last night, and she is all psyched up about the Tigers playing in the World Series games next week. I grew up on Detroit's east side and then in Fair Haven (48823). It's always good for a city and state to have one of it's teams in the playoffs. Does this bode well for the auto industry and the markets? Should we buy cars assembled in October from Detroit?

 

[James48843]

You can't buy a car assembled in October in Detroit.

There are ZERO automobile manufacturing plants in Detroit anymore.

 

[EW_ret]

You can't buy a car assembled in October in Detroit.

There are ZERO automobile manufacturing plants in Detroit anymore.

Its been a while since I lived in Michigan, so I should have stated "...built in Michigan.". The Zip I quoted for Fair Haven was incorrect should be 48023.

 

[The_Technician]

Korea blew a nuke according to sources......overseas markets tomorrow may not be in a good mood.....dollar will strengthen......maybe this is worth an Uttt-ohhhhh.....

 

[TiCKed]

Korea blew a nuke according to sources......overseas markets tomorrow may not be in a good mood.....dollar will strengthen......maybe this is worth an Uttt-ohhhhh.....

And the Beatles are breaking up. Bad news all around!

 

[ATCJeff]

Korea blew a nuke according to sources......overseas markets tomorrow may not be in a good mood.....dollar will strengthen......maybe this is worth an Uttt-ohhhhh.....

Old news......

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition
October 16, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks stretch to new high!

Con-Yak...................................Lube comming up too!

Jester-Yak................................Where's the mattress?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1369.05, up +3.43
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.346, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+10.865/9.528, diverging.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............increasing at +1.337.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........97.70, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 74.86 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................59.94, up +1.37
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1356. Trail: 1343.

 

[tsptalk]

Tom- you're a METS fan?
Well, maybe that explains it.

Yeah. I could have chosen the Yankees as a kid, but went with the Mets. Another bad call.

Perhaps it's a good time to recap the "American League vs. National League" theory of the market
I don't know how it's been doing lately, but in years past there was something about the National Leage winning the World Series that was a postive for markets, and if the American League won it was trouble ahead for stocks. .

I thought that was a football AFC/NFC thing? - NFC good for the market, AFC bad - but I think it lost its thunder the last several years.

Congrats on the Tigers. I sure hope the Mets join you in the Series.

 

[tsptalk]

How did Greenspan put it? (Irrational Exuberance)

Yeah, and that was in late 1996. The market pulled back for a few weeks after that statement but rallied strongly for another 3 years.

 

[weatherweenie]

Intel, Johnson&Johnson and Motorola are some of the big boys reporting on Tuesday, 10/17 http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20061017.html

 

[Show-me]

Don't forget PPI, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production.
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Intel, Johnson&Johnson and Motorola are some of the big boys reporting on Tuesday, 10/17 http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20061017.html

 

[James48843]

You know, now would be a good time to develop that sense of caution, because when this run ends, which it will, eventually, it's going to be a solid downturn for a few percentage points before bouncing back. It would not surprize me to see a day of leveling off, followed by a good three or four percent pullback any day now....


Of course, it MAY just be temporary, but I just don't think we can sustain this kind of move up without a good, healthy pause sometime soon...

 

[Spaf]

Of course, it MAY just be temporary, but I just don't think we can sustain this kind of move up without a good, healthy pause sometime soon...

James,
I agree with your feelings! I have been following the RevShark as of late. So far he has been doing quite well, if you have been following Tom's comments. Since he has a staff supporting his operation and with the history of a so-far-so-good track record, I'm inclined to follow his directions. Really thinking about dropping out of the tracker and going with RevShark! Kind of leaves more time for fishing!
Rgds
Spaf