Market Talk / Oct. 19 - 25

Spaf

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Market Talk
Sunday Edition
October 19, 2008


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General Commentary:

Patience, the chart candlestick of last Friday makes a point of indecision. Wild price swings are as nervous as a squirrel caught in the middle of the road. So it is with the fallout from the credit market. Until these markets return to some resemblance of security investors may flee at the drop of a leaf.

Fundamentally the economy needs more repair, indicators are all over the place; investors need patience as the market has been moving sideways.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps
081017SPX.gif

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com


The 50d E-moving average remains bearish, well below the 50 dma.

The P-SAR remains bearish.

The Bollinger Bands are showing high volatility.

Volume was about on par.

The S-STO was between overbought and oversold areas.

The MACD was moving sideways.


Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​
 
Hello fellow investors, Have been thinking about the self-fulfilling prophecy regarding the terrible economy, etc. Seems to me that with the huge growth in profit-sharing plans ( 401ks, 403bs, etc.) vs. regular pension plans in the past 5 years or so there has been enormous pressure to find good investments. I.E. With regular contributions in there has been enormous pressure to increase stock prices due to demand. With more money and limited good places to invest it prices were forced up. Now with more money moving into the G fund or similar money market accounts there are fewer buyers for the same good investments which forces prices down. Which causes even more investors to pull out of the markets which accelerates the declines. We can only hope that at some point greed takes over and reverses the trend!:worried:

Doesn't appear to me that we are anywhere near a bottom, but still may be a decent place to start slowwly DCA ing back in. Before the IFT limitations we could have gradually (5 -10%at a time) gotten back in over 3-6 months.

Thoughts anyone?
 
Dollar cost averaging in sounds like a good plan, but the bottom could be a year or two away so go slow. :)
 
What are the chances the board would wave the 2 transfer limit whenever the VIX is, say... over 30?

We've been good boys and girls.

I'm afraid even though I peeled some off a few days ago, we may get this I-T bottom before my Nov release from bondage.

Reminds me of a diddy from Ferris Bueler's Day Off.

"When Traffic Dog was stuck in Egypt land....... let my Traffic Dog go....."
 
Doesn't appear to me that we are anywhere near a bottom, but still may be a decent place to start slowwly DCA ing back in. Before the IFT limitations we could have gradually (5 -10%at a time) gotten back in over 3-6 months.

Thoughts anyone?

"Slowwly"? DCA is not a fashion trend. It's a rule to live your life by. Keep on buy'n....
 
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Thanks again SB! Quick question, If I do a <1% IFT early in the month does that use up one of my two +1% IFTs for the month?
 
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According to Grenspan, the former Fed chief the credit market crisis was caused by:......Get this......I quote.....are U ready....."OVEREAGER INVESTORS"!

Now really, where did they come up with this one??......:confused:
 
What a bunch of Brovo Sugar!!

Greenspan was THE very first person Shrub met with the day after he was selected. The Spanman is, in my book, complicit up to his big ol ears in this debacle, and is just trying to deflect our attention. Some real work of art there eh!
 
According to Grenspan, the former Fed chief the credit market crisis was caused by:......Get this......I quote.....are U ready....."OVEREAGER INVESTORS"!

Now really, where did they come up with this one??......:confused:

I think Congress is lighting the torches for their witch hunt on this. They tell Greenspan to stop sugar-coating it, he and the administration are at fault, and they did everything to make sure that this happened. Read following:

Congressional committee lamblasts Greenspan
Thursday October 23, 1:50 pm ET
By Aaron Smith, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a House committee Thursday that the nation will emerge from the current credit crisis with a "far sounder financial system." "We are in the midst of a once-in-a century credit tsunami," Greenspan told the House Oversight and Reform Committee. But he said that less-risky decisions by investors will help pull the markets out of their slump. "Investors, chastened, will be exceptionally cautious," he said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081023/102308_committee_regulatory.html
 
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html
Sy Harding's free daily blog
Those Congressional investigations every day this week are looking dumb and dumber every day. With both hands Congress, the Fed, and Treasury poured in $trillions to help provide confidence to consumers and investors. And then they choose now, at the height of the panic and worry, to hold televised hearings to dig into all the ugliness and frauds that created the situations, so anxious to place blame and look statesmanlike before the elections. Wasn't it helpful for consumer confidence (consumer spending is 65% of the economy), and investor confidence, to have former Fed Chairman Greenspan at yesterday's hearings, and his testimony all over the TV news and in the newspapers last night and this morning, telling the world he is in a "state of shocked disbelief", that the banking and housing chaos is a "once in a century tsunami.", that things will get worse before they get better, with no stabilization for many months.
After the 1929-32 crash they had the sense to wait until 1933, when the panic was over and the market was recovering, to open hearings, and until 1934 to come up with the regulations to prevent a recurrence. There was then the 1933 Truth in Securities Act, the 1934 Securities & Exchange Act. And the 1934 Glass-Stegal Act (separating investment banks, commercial banks, savings banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies, etc.) which was repealed by Congress in 1999. .......

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(A republican controlled congress repealed the Act) - Malyla's 2cents

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act


The bill that ultimately repealed the Act was introduced in the Senate by Phil Gramm (R-TX) and in the House of Representatives by James Leach (R-IA) in 1999. The bills were passed by a 54-44 vote along party lines with Republican support in the Senate[8] and by a 343-86 vote in the House of Representatives[9]. Nov 4, 1999: After passing both the Senate and House the bill was moved to a conference committee to work out the differences between the Senate and House versions. The final bipartisan bill resolving the differences was passed in the Senate 90-8-1 and in the House: 362-57-15. Without forcing a veto vote, this bipartisan, veto proof legislation was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999. [10]
The banking industry had been seeking the repeal of Glass-Steagall since at least the 1980s. In 1987 the Congressional Research Service prepared a report which explored the case for preserving Glass-Steagall and the case against preserving the act.[11]
The argument for preserving Glass-Steagall (as written in 1987):
1. Conflicts of interest characterize the granting of credit – lending – and the use of credit – investing – by the same entity, which led to abuses that originally produced the Act
2. Depository institutions possess enormous financial power, by virtue of their control of other people’s money; its extent must be limited to ensure soundness and competition in the market for funds, whether loans or investments.
3. Securities activities can be risky, leading to enormous losses. Such losses could threaten the integrity of deposits. In turn, the Government insures deposits and could be required to pay large sums if depository institutions were to collapse as the result of securities losses.
4. Depository institutions are supposed to be managed to limit risk. Their managers thus may not be conditioned to operate prudently in more speculative securities businesses. An example is the crash of real estate investment trusts sponsored by bank holding companies (in the 1970s and 1980s).
The argument against preserving the Act (as written in 1987):
1. Depository institutions will now operate in “deregulated” financial markets in which distinctions between loans, securities, and deposits are not well drawn. They are losing market shares to securities firms that are not so strictly regulated, and to foreign financial institutions operating without much restriction from the Act.
2. Conflicts of interest can be prevented by enforcing legislation against them, and by separating the lending and credit functions through forming distinctly separate subsidiaries of financial firms.
3. The securities activities that depository institutions are seeking are both low-risk by their very nature, and would reduce the total risk of organizations offering them – by diversification.
4. In much of the rest of the world, depository institutions operate simultaneously and successfully in both banking and securities markets. Lessons learned from their experience can be applied to our national financial structure and regulation.[12]

The repeal enabled commercial lenders such as Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, to underwrite and trade instruments such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations and establish so-called structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that bought those securities. [13]
 
Ho Hum: another week, another day, another minus 3+%; we should feel so lucky - compared to eurasia.

Pardon me for going out on a huge narrow limb here, but, yahhh, I think next week will be a continuation of the slide.
 
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