Market Talk / Oct. 12 - 18

[Frixxxx]

James - Hearing that from you is not good.

I told him to say that. :laugh: The employment and earnings numbers are going to get pretty dismal. I had a friend of mine lose 52% this year on his 401K. He's working for another 2 years because of the drop.....

I think we'll see alot of people working longer and less job openings over the nex 6-12 months.

Those numbers alone will keep stocks in check.

OR,

I could be wrong.

 

[amoeba]

sell while the selling's good

lousy retail sales, LIBOR still too high, yet the C-fund above last week's low (some call it an oversold bounce this monday - I'd call it an overbought selling opportunity).

I'm inclined to wait and see what the holiday sales and next few unemployment numbers are before going back into this.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: sell while the selling's good

I'm inclined to wait and see what the holiday sales and next few unemployment numbers are before going back into this.

Ofcourse both numbers will be bad. How can they not be bad? They will be compared to last year's, which were ok according to Gov. numbers. The only thing that might help is if they mail out $5000 stimulus checks to every taxpayer before Thanksgiving.

 

[amoeba]

Re: sell while the selling's good

Ofcourse both numbers will be bad. How can they not be bad? They will be compared to last year's, which were ok according to Gov. numbers. The only thing that might help is if they mail out $5000 stimulus checks to every taxpayer before Thanksgiving.

Well - I learned the hard way that stimulus checks totally mess up the indicators and are temporary; so I won't be fooled if that happens. I remember the first "stimulus" and how Bernanke appeared to "sell out" to the republicans on that one - instead of independently thinking it through. I also don't like his comparisons between 1932 and 2008, to justify all this governmental intervention; inasumuch as he may be an academic expert on the great depression - things have changed - alot; especially in terms of real time information viz a viz "emotion". There's still alot of emotional decisions being made out there....but this is not 1932.

I think at this point the government needs to hold off on throwing any more money; unless they are going to pull some of that $700B back, and do things that have some product associated with them - and I don't mean bad paper or war. How about jobs? How about infrastructure? How about energy-efficiency? Go rebuild a train system. Do something else besides giving out free lunches to large banks and/or people to pay off mortgages on home loans they cannot afford.

 

[James48843]

Re: sell while the selling's good

lousy retail sales, LIBOR still too high, yet the C-fund above last week's low

Not for long.


C fund-

Going downnnn........

 

[James48843]

C fund almost all the way back to where it was on Monday. Not quite, but close.


My head hurts.

 

[amoeba]

So no takers?

So no discussion? We're all in agreement? Nothing but bears?

BTW, I just checked the LIBORs and swap spreads and they remain anywhere from not good to getting worse; squadoosh. No all-in moment for me.

Any prediction on tommorrow's close on the S&P?

 

[JOVARN]

I agree that we are in a bear market, but I also believe that we have established a trading range. To bad we can only make two / month. This really stinks!! bcause I know we would be making money in this market.

 

[Gumby]

Re: So no takers?

Any prediction on tommorrow's close on the S&P?

I am thinking 840 :worried:

 

[amoeba]

gumby could be right if....

...our market follows Asia's opening (down another 8-9% in the first hr)

 

[Spaf]

I think it's another good buying day, will get some more I-shares [IVV].

 

[Silverbird]

Yahoo Finance
Bond Ticker:
11:42 am - Bill Sale : Treasury sold $35B of 247-day bills with a high rate of 1.350% with a cover of 1.99. Another infusion of $35B via 191-day bills are expected.
11:37 am - Ticking Up : The market has scraped together a bid. Credit the awful Philly Fed number and a subsequent stock melt which has bolstered some dip buyers. But trade remains thin and subject to volatile swings. Yield spreads are flattening with the 2-10-yr in a bit at 238 and 3-mo-10-yr at 364 as the long end wrestles back to scratch. The afternoon looks to be locked in a stare at equities. The dollar is trying to pull the euro below 1.34 while the yen firms with a break of hourly dollar support near 100.80. Spot gold is getting crushed at 792.47 (-54.43) while crude is down at 69.35 (-5.19).

 

[Birchtree]

Oil broke $70 once today and the VIX hit 81.5 for a record high. Let's close up 400 points.

 

[Gumby]

Oil broke $70 once today and the VIX hit 81.5 for a record high. Let's close up 400 points.

Flip a coin...either up 400 or down 400.

 

[Silverbird]

Crescenzi: Libor Set to Plunge
October 16
CNBC
Posted By:Tony Crescenzi

Libor is probably set to begin falling, perhaps sharply in response to not only the massive support measures announced by the G-7, but also because of the announcement Monday by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank regarding actions commenced yesterday by the BOE, ECB, and SNB wherein each offered an unlimited supply of dollars at fixed interest rates, which in yesterday's auction, or tender, was substantially below Libor......
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27214160
[I hope you're right, Tony]

 

[amoeba]

last hour will tell

Looks like another fund redemption/cash hoarding day (gold, oil, stocks, bonds all down or sideways); we'll see soon if that money is moved somewhere in particular or is off the table for a longer term

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: last hour will tell

Looks like another fund redemption/cash hoarding day (gold, oil, stocks, bonds all down or sideways); we'll see soon if that money is moved somewhere in particular or is off the table for a longer term

I'll go with the "OR" on that!

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: last hour will tell

Looks like another fund redemption/cash hoarding day (gold, oil, stocks, bonds all down or sideways); we'll see soon if that money is moved somewhere in particular or is off the table for a longer term

I'll go with the "OR" on that!

CBOE Put/Call Ratio is at 1.22 right now. :blink:

If the reversal starts and people bargain hunt, we could get that dead cat bounce rally tomorrow everyone is hoping for. Everyone, think good thoughts .... ohmmmmmmm. :laugh:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Re: last hour will tell

CBOE Put/Call Ratio is at 1.22 right now. :blink:

If the reversal starts and people bargain hunt, we could get that dead cat bounce rally tomorrow everyone is hoping for. Everyone, think good thoughts .... ohmmmmmmm. :laugh:

Lady

My timing is off again. This gain was supposed to happen tomorrow. :laugh:

Lady

 

[James48843]

Looks to me like we may be getting into a trading range.

1010 on the upper end,

850-890 on the lower end.

I think we MAY end up going back and forth for a while, at least until some news, one way or the other, knocks us out of that trading range.