Market Talk / Oct. 12 - 18

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Spaf

Spaf

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Market Talk
Sunday Edition
October 12, 2008
Early Edition​


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General Commentary:

What a brutal market it was last week. The S&P lost 200 points in just the one week (closing at 899.22). The TV Commentators frequently used the same word "anxiety"; worry about what may happen, could happen, etc, etc.

IMHO: If in the G or F funds, sit tight, those funds are relatively safe. Don't try and fish for the bottom, stocks won't stop falling until they have run out of gas. Also don't sell low. TSP has index funds, a lot safer than individual or sector funds. Remember, the S&P is made up of 500+ funds, it will recover, just that it may take some time. The C-fund of large caps should be the better of the three stock funds to respond in a recovery.

If you are taking deductions out of your TSP for retirement, remember deductions are subtracted from each fund. You are selling shares at a low value. In early December a change to deductions can be processe (just a point to remember). The current market kind of illustrates the value of the other two legs of the FERS syatem (annuity and social security). The TSP leg can have it's ups and downs.

Last week the stock market was in a free-fall, any logic applied to the large declines were futile. The majority of the indicators were maxed out. However, if you want to judge the volitility of a particular stock, try using the Bollinger Bands; the larger the bands the more volitility there is in the fund.


A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Weekly 2-years
Large Caps
081010SPX.gif

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​


Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​
 
I think its going to be a positive week, not sure about Monday. Gold down, dollar up, oil down, and the Gov buying stocks will play well with
“Joe six pack” wink wink.

The Puppet masters have been busy the past few months, and I think its time they started to cash in their winnings. WATCH the list of new Billionaires grow following this mess. We were played again. If this whole banking mess was a threat to our national security ,why is homeland security not putting people in jail

4 of the 6 people I worked with today were buyers on Friday.
Good luck to all
 
I'm new here (hi). I actually moved part of my TSP back into the C fund on Friday. Halfway through the year, I decided I had enough of the losses on my TSP and pulled out of the stock funds. I was actually in the L2040 fund and had been since the L funds were started up. I moved all my money to the G fund on July 2nd and moved all future contributions to the G fund. On Friday Oct 10 I moved 25% of the money into the C fund and changed future allocations to all go to the C fund as well.

My thinking is that while this may not be the bottom, I am still a lot better off than I would have been had I "let it ride" (is it just me or does the "let it ride" mentality that most "experts" have sound a lot like roulette?). Also, while it may not be at the bottom yet, it seems unlikely that it will fall another 2000 points in 2 weeks. I mean, if that happens then we're back at the point in the market that we were at in the 90's! If we are at the bottom, I want some exposure to it and if we're not at the bottom, I don't want full exposure. My investment time frame is very long. I am in my 20's.

Does this sound like a reasonable thought process?
 
If we are fortunate to bottom soon there will come a time to put another 25% to work - most off the bottom moves make their best gains early usually in the first three months.
 
nobody's buying anything because.....

of hedge fund redemptions, and lack of credit. Not stock, not oil, not anything. Nobody cares about trailing P/E's right now. Ergo, this doesn't seem like a V-shaped bottom to me. If I was to be an optimist, and had the money, I'd want to see some earnings, guidance, change in employment numbers, loosening of credit, something besides the government officials buying bad paper and saying that's the answer, to put money in this week, this year, or even next.
 
typical guy said:
I'm new here (hi). I actually moved part of my TSP back into the C fund on Friday. Halfway through the year, I decided I had enough of the losses on my TSP and pulled out of the stock funds. I was actually in the L2040 fund and had been since the L funds were started up. I moved all my money to the G fund on July 2nd and moved all future contributions to the G fund. On Friday Oct 10 I moved 25% of the money into the C fund and changed future allocations to all go to the C fund as well.

My thinking is that while this may not be the bottom, I am still a lot better off than I would have been had I "let it ride" (is it just me or does the "let it ride" mentality that most "experts" have sound a lot like roulette?). Also, while it may not be at the bottom yet, it seems unlikely that it will fall another 2000 points in 2 weeks. I mean, if that happens then we're back at the point in the market that we were at in the 90's! If we are at the bottom, I want some exposure to it and if we're not at the bottom, I don't want full exposure. My investment time frame is very long. I am in my 20's.

Does this sound like a reasonable thought process?
Click to expand...

Welcome to the mb and you are spot on! IMO, set your contributions to a diversified mix and start DCA back into equities. Start stepping back with your nice G fund reserve too, take bites of these massive pull backs. In 20 years you will only be in your 40's and wealthier than the rest of us.

Good luck and good to see you on the mb.
 
Also, get your contributions up so high you feel like you are bleeding from every orifice. This is the TIME TO ACCUMULATE SHARES WHILE THEY ARE CHEAP!
 
tuesday puker?

Isn't our (stock) market closed monday? (bonds trade, asian markets trade starting tonight)

I'm not panicking - my thrift is in G, my other money is in cash, and has independent insurance against FDIC insurance running out.

It could be a monstrous move tuesday here - depending on what happens in asia and europe on their monday (tonite) and tuesday (monday night). A real puker.

I would be watching the credit markets carefully.
 
The Bond Market and the Department of the Treasury is closed. Also note that TSP transactions normally processed on Monday night will be processed on Tuesday night at Tuesday’s closing share prices.
Show-me said:
No holiday for stocks on Monday. Stock market open for business!
Click to expand...
 
S&P futures up 48 right now. Looking good for the open.

Asia and Europe mostly all green overnight.

CAC, DAX, FTSE all up around 5%.

Cross your fingers- let's hope it holds.
 
Asia and Europe both extend their gains.

Hang Seng now up 10%.

Most of Europe now up over 6%.


Huge, Huge Swing-

Jeeze- can't we just have things calm down a little?
 
Morning Gumby,

That's alright I need this market to stay down this week so my contributions can hit.
 
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