Market Talk / Nov. 2nd. - 8th.

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Spaf

Spaf

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Market Talk
Sunday Edition
November 02, 2008​


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General Commentary:

Dismal October, but a good last week close. $SPX indicators were showing a weak bullish with some underlying bearish cautions. $SPX is moving within a trading range of about 1,020 resistance and 840 support. Until a trend is established the index may be somewhat range bound.


A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps
081031SPX.gif

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​


The pricing on the 13d E-moving average advanced to a cautious bullish.

Bollinger Bands still record a higher than normal volatility.

The P-SAR went bullish, closing above the trigger point.

Volume was within a normal range.

The S-STO was also bullish with %K above %D. Midway between OB and OS.

The MACD was a weak bullish with a fair divergence.


Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​
 
just doesn't look good all around; circuit city to close 20-25% of its locations; more layoffs to come in autos, everywhere else, and that is before the inevitable second wave, the big one, of foreclosures next summer. That should clean out the buy-and-holders once and for all.

No way to print money our way out of this one; and the more the government tries to do this - the more it delays the inevitable. We lived off of phony "wealth-effect" credit the last five years. We are about to begin living without it.

In the short term, I predict a miss on the employment number on 11/7; we shall see what we shall see.....however....
 
Remember, the numbers next to beat or exceed expectation for any hold this week on the market.

Non-farm expectation is -200K

Unemployment forecast is 6.2%

But we'll see if they report "ficticious" numbers. I don't think there will be any reason to hold back after the election, but they could also try and "cook" the books until after the Christmas break.
 
When I said "miss" I meant more negative than -200,000. Boy have things changed. Remember when less than 40,000 created was a bad number?

In any case, I think there will be some job inflation as a result of some of the "out of business" type pre-holiday sales, like Mervyn's for example (announced, but won't show in numbers till January).

ALOT of empty car sales/resales lots; alot of empty small businesses; around here (CA), signficant reduction in traffic. From what I hear of small business owners, that are still in business, lots of cold calls, lots of applications (most say they can get better quality people than they have, if anyone quits!).

Much ado made about credit "easing" (methinks easy credit was the problem, and therefore not the solution), but the indicators are not consistent even if you believed this would have any pervasive effect on the world economy.
 
amoeba said:
When I said "miss" I meant more negative than -200,000. Boy have things changed. Remember when less than 40,000 created was a bad number?
Click to expand...
Sorry amoeba, I was just kinda adding to what you said. I'm here in CA with you and I'm loving this commute time (50 miles one way for me). Less construction vehicles on the road, less commuters, but sadly it means too many outta work.

We had a Domino's Pizza go outta business, along with 2 Starbuck's and a Dairy Queen. You know it is bad when the chains go down as quick as Mom & Pops!!!!

Here's to toasting in a new President tomorrow!:suspicious:
 
Also, for those thinking of getting in the market:suspicious:, I submit the following:


AP
Gov't to borrow a record $550B in current quarter
Monday November 3, 3:53 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Government to borrow a record $550 billion in the current quarter to support financial rescue
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government will borrow a record $550 billion in the current quarter as it scrambles to fund the huge rescue programs being put in place to deal with the worst financial crisis in seven decades.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081103/financial_meltdown.html:mad:
 
All I'm hearing from the liberal press today is that Nobama has already one the race - I don't believe it for a moment. If the BigMac wins everyone needs to hold on because the rocket fuel will be freely flowing.
 
I'm not convinced the election makes a lick of difference:


What we have here, fundamentally, is a broken economy. Anyone bother to read the seasonally adjusted auto sales? Worst since 1983? Why on this green earth did the market rise 15% last week. Beats the sheet out of me!!! Why is gasoline going down? (answer: no demand, answer why: people have less money).

But an election isn't like selling cars. Backward looking predictions, comparing this to 1987, are irrelevant to the present instance.

Look forward to a couple more consecutive quarters of fading interest in equities. There needs to be a reason to get back in; anybody got one?
 
amoeba said:
I'm not convinced the election makes a lick of difference:


What we have here, fundamentally, is a broken economy. Anyone bother to read the seasonally adjusted auto sales? Worst since 1983? Why on this green earth did the market rise 15% last week. Beats the sheet out of me!!! Why is gasoline going down? (answer: no demand, answer why: people have less money).

But an election isn't like selling cars. Backward looking predictions, comparing this to 1987, are irrelevant to the present instance.

Look forward to a couple more consecutive quarters of fading interest in equities. There needs to be a reason to get back in; anybody got one?
Click to expand...

I don't see a reason to get back into stocks at this point. We have the whole month of November to try and figure it out. Remain patient is how I look at it. I want at least 5% or I'm not interested. I would rather get this election over with and see what happens for a week or two. More Bad news is coming. Heck circuit city employs thousands of people and they are closing allot of stores. Really there is no need to jump at a 2 or 3 percent rally. :blink:
 
poolman said:
I don't see a reason to get back into stocks at this point. We have the whole month of November to try and figure it out. Remain patient is how I look at it.
Click to expand...

November starts the 6 better months for the market. However, this market is like a pond of ice. No one knows how thick it it is with all the hot air around....:D
 
The way I see it is that the govt is just proping up the mkt....by throwing money around. I guess they don't know what else to do! Most companies have budgets/funds which they will use thru the end of the year....they don't want to put a damper on Christmas sales with negativity. However after that's over.......Jan 2009 will see the cutbacks, store closures and resulting layoffs which should cause the economy and mkt to stagnate. Then it could be worse with more taxes which will stifle business investment. :(
 
Intersting article/links (more on the hedge-funds debacle):

http://www.trivisonno.com/ (Nov 3rd)
Hedge Fund Redemptions Building Up?
I wonder how many hedge funds are refusing redemptions like this one. Is there a tidal wave of redemption selling building for next week? And now we know why Goldman Sachs (GS) is an eyelash away from taking out its October 10th closing low. You guessed it: an exploding hedge fund.

Also, posted there is an interesting chart analysis (mirrors?):

VR
 
a sharply higher open in asia their wednesday. still tough looking retail numbers and ugly job report due later this wk. not sure what to make of all this buying.
 
Huge breaking news! BOE drops rate 1.5% to 3% with a target of 2%. No one expected this!
 
starting to make a bit more sense, so now what? I guess another gap down, sooner rather than later - probably tomorrow - guidance/earnings have been very weak in everything from raw material to finished product; MT announced some ungodly amount of layoffs and plant shutdown/idles a day or so ago.

Should be interesting where C closes friday - I'll be watching from the sidelines, and also thinking about adding to F fund, since it broke 6-7 consecutive down days recently.
 
Lay offs are acceleration, retail is scared, and now I am noticing local businesses laying off. Bad times right before the big retail season.
 
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