robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Bond shorts also took it on the chin today as ZB (30 year) pushed through 200 weekly resistance. It settled right below and it remains to be seen how far lower yields can be driven. It does strike me as odd that all this evidence of a slowdown is met with such joviality on the part of equities. Granted, the threat of inflation is waning, but with it comes the prospect of a much slower economy. We have lots more data to digest, including CPI, jobless claims and industrial production, all on Thursday. Add DELL/HPQ earnings that same day, option expiration week manipulations, an overbought market with a VIX at decade lows and you might want to avoid being caught up in all the hype. But be careful not to short when the buy programs come in. They are working it. If you must try, wait for absolute resistance, such as weekly and monthly pivot points and fib projections off weekly and monthly price points. This is a must when you enter record territory. Keep an eye on call resistance, namely QQQQ 44/45 and SPY 140/141. DOW cash resistance is now between 12289 and 12364, SPX between 1400 and 1404. COMP resistance is between 2438.50 and 2475. Any shorts should be considered scalps until traction is gained, end even then, book profits without thinking, as in today's ES hit at S1. NQ low was hourly chart trend line support. There is always a reason. Until proven otherwise, buy support using very disciplined stops. We have moved from the disbelief stage to the "throw in the towel" stage, which means a reversal could be imminent.
Once we are done with this week the market will be somewhat rudderless and I suspect some serious distribution could be in store.
A word of caution for tomorrow: EIA inventories out at 10:30 EST. The price of oil is key right now and trading will be volatile.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
Bond shorts also took it on the chin today as ZB (30 year) pushed through 200 weekly resistance. It settled right below and it remains to be seen how far lower yields can be driven. It does strike me as odd that all this evidence of a slowdown is met with such joviality on the part of equities. Granted, the threat of inflation is waning, but with it comes the prospect of a much slower economy. We have lots more data to digest, including CPI, jobless claims and industrial production, all on Thursday. Add DELL/HPQ earnings that same day, option expiration week manipulations, an overbought market with a VIX at decade lows and you might want to avoid being caught up in all the hype. But be careful not to short when the buy programs come in. They are working it. If you must try, wait for absolute resistance, such as weekly and monthly pivot points and fib projections off weekly and monthly price points. This is a must when you enter record territory. Keep an eye on call resistance, namely QQQQ 44/45 and SPY 140/141. DOW cash resistance is now between 12289 and 12364, SPX between 1400 and 1404. COMP resistance is between 2438.50 and 2475. Any shorts should be considered scalps until traction is gained, end even then, book profits without thinking, as in today's ES hit at S1. NQ low was hourly chart trend line support. There is always a reason. Until proven otherwise, buy support using very disciplined stops. We have moved from the disbelief stage to the "throw in the towel" stage, which means a reversal could be imminent.
Once we are done with this week the market will be somewhat rudderless and I suspect some serious distribution could be in store.
A word of caution for tomorrow: EIA inventories out at 10:30 EST. The price of oil is key right now and trading will be volatile.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
