Market Talk / May 14 - 20

[teknobucks]

here's greenie's....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060519/ap_on_bi_ge/greenspan_speech

tekno
all the way in and nervous as hell. this rally today may not make for a good week starting monday

 

[Birchtree]

Believe it or not, it's not easy being a BULL in this kind of environment - especially being a contrarian type of bull. It is so much easier to forget perserverence and cut to the G fund. The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. But the best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns. I know exactly how most of you feel - including myself. It's all in the sacrifice one is willing to make. But betting against fund flows, prevailing sentiment, and trend lines has made contrarian investors rich over the years. So, snort, snort, no shake out here.

 

[davtrader]

if the down move is complete, the down move being a (3) zigzag ,with A = C. we should watch the retrace back towards 1300(61.8% of the move)
Dav

 

[FundSurfer]

Fundsurfer, if you're still using the part of my orginal system from two years ago were a buy signal is triggered when the current price of the S fund falls to 3% below the 63-day MA, it triggered yesterday.

Yeah, I noticed. I added a couple tweaks to your system. Primarily, wait for the blood loss to stop before getting onboard. Todays green, if it holds, will be my signal. I'll me moving into the market most likely on Monday (usually don't like to buy on Fridays because of the negative Monday bias).

My comments were actually meant as a joke. My "joke" was that I was using Wizard as a contrarian "signal" to buy because he went short.

 

[Wizard]

Why do you cheer for the market to go down?

Markets go up and down. You can make money on both directions.

 

[Wizard]

Believe it or not, it's not easy being a BULL in this kind of environment - especially being a contrarian type of bull.

Contrarian??

Bulls - 47%
Bears - 25%

Ahh, the folks in the 25% group are the contrarians. :blink:

 

[Wizard]

My comments were actually meant as a joke. My "joke" was that I was using Wizard as a contrarian "signal" to buy because he went short.

I said go short at 1pm the day the job report was released.

60 points ago on the SPX.

470 points ago on the DOW.

 

[robo]

May 18, 2006

Smart Money Confidence: 58% Dumb Money Confidence: 46%

 

[Wizard]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree

There is just so much negativity out there currently...

Dennis - permabull #1



Quote:
Originally Posted by Rod
Great contrarian indicator, huh?

Yeah, all the "experts" are saying buy this dip. Heard one of the Fox News "gurus" saying this will be the last good buying opporunity left for this year. :worried:

Post from last Sunday. :blink:

 

[Wizard]

Line in the sand is 370.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$djusit

As goes the transports.....:embarrest:

 

[Rod]

The bear has been skinned!!!

Ready to take the bull by the horns next week...

 

[TiCKed]

Looks like a rubber ball today.....But I have a feeling that last hour will look like the ball fell off the table again. Next week will be the REAL bounce!

(My predictions are worth exactly what you paid for them...... )

See! Everyone got their money's worth.

Off to the Ducks game in a few....Hope they perform better than the markets! (No predictions here....Don't want to jinx them.)

 

[Wizard]

The bear has been skinned!!!

Ready to take the bull by the horns next week...

Not enough fear out there yet. Reading many other boards and they all think the downside is over and a new rally started today. I have an even better picture then I posted last weekend - but I think you get the picture. :embarrest:

 

[JOVARN]

I did also on small caps. You are correct, HOLD ON!!! We need to see what the Big Boys do next week. They are on a Buyers Strike!!! They want to shake out has many as they can before they run it back up. The next few weeks is going to be wild!!!

I think the buy signal came from me I posted that at 1130 before I started my laundry and after I washed the kitchen floor.
LOL

 

[FundSurfer]

I said go short at 1pm the day the job report was released.

60 points ago on the SPX.

470 points ago on the DOW.

You said you shorted the SPX at 1258...it is 1267... run for cover!:cheesy:

 

[robo]

JOVARN,


Thanks for the buy signal. I also got some sell and conditional sell signals.

Example below:

"We are issuing a conditional SELL signal today: Move to Short funds in Rydex or Profunds, but only if NDX makes a new lower low for today. Today's low was 1575. The SELL signal will be issued if we look to close below 1575 on NDX by 3:45 PM ET.

I get several services and some are shouting sell and others are shouting buy!
Some have stayed long the whole pullback and others were in cash so they lost nothing. Some shorted and made BIG BUCKS.

That's what makes the market. You need Wizards and Birchtrees to make it work. I mean Bears and Bulls or is it Bulls and Bears.

Some on the board out perform some of the TA's I get. However, some of the TA's I get are excellent. In the end I make the final call. After all, they are just recommendations and opinions.

I just think we are due a bounce and if I'm wrong I'll just try and get it correct the next time. It must be stressfull to send out hundreds or maybe thousands of emails to investors to move millions of dollars and get it wrong. I'll bet lots of nasty emails went out last week to TA's from investors.... Many got it wrong!

Some pretty sharp cookies on this board got in a little early. So the folks that were long from the start got hurt pretty bad! I'll be making only short term plays for now. I wonder how much Birchtree's account lost last week. Mine did go down some. Well, more than I have lost in years! Thanks Ben!!

I'm not feeling good about being long. I wonder how many nasty emails Tom gets and he gives his opinions free. I do enjoy reading his comments and the Shark's daily, and yes I do get the Skark's TSP Timing Newsletter. Do I follow his advice. Sometimes, but not all the time.

Take care and thanks for the buy signal Brother!

 

[Wizard]

You said you shorted the SPX at 1258...it is 1267... run for cover!:cheesy:

I said added. If it breaks 1258 that will be the break of longer term support.

I been short since 1300. :worried:

 

[robo]

MARK HULBERT
The stock market as bucking bronco

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...&guid={130C2F79-10DC-4DC5-B2FE-171554FF8CA7}&

 

[Wizard]

Betting against the market

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...5-aa87-c57f3bb95ee9&siteid=mktw&dist=morenews

I would listen to this guy. He said go long October 2002 and took a lot of heat for it and he turned out being correct. Interesting, he is taking a lot of heat betting against the market now.

 

[Birchtree]

Robo,

The Birchtree dropped $20,475 in ten trading days in TSP account and a little over $90,000 in my outside oceanic account. It's tolerable from my perspective and I'm on the come back trail again. I plan to sell a take over stock next week and redistribute that profit into some beaten down metal stocks I own as well as a few drillers. Things may even get worse for awhile - but I'll take opportunity of the situation - a diversified portfolio provides ample potential.

Now here is something interesting. I received two credit card offers from cards that I previously paid off two years ago. One is for 4.99% until paid and the other is 5.99% until paid - the total is $29,000. The banks must be getting desperate to take the chance to lock in those rates. And the prime now is 8% - they must know something the rest of us don't. Take care.