Market Talk / May 14 - 20

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
May 14, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Economic pain stops momentum! Overbought socks fall.
Other Yak...............................Lube up about 3% for the week. Rates have a reality.
Jester Yak..............................Wow!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,291.24, dn -34.52, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.043, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+3.110, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........41.08, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 40.15 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................72.04, up +1.85, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Red.

Tin Box:
Position...................................100G.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: 1312 [broken], Trail: 1299 [broken].

TSP (week ending)......G=11.35..F=10.53..C=14.11..S=17.59..I=20.54
....(1 week past)........G=11.34..F=10.57..C=14.48..S=18.24..I=20.75
....(2 week past)........G=11.33..F=10.59..C=14.31..S=17.91..I=20.17
....(3 week past)........G=11.32..F=10.58..C=14.31..S=18.02..I=20.04
....(4 week past)........G=11.30..F=10.55..C=14.07..S=17.60..I=19.33

 

[James48843]

Nice chart.

Headed south quick.

I think Monday is going to be bloody.

We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Wizard]

Nice chart.

Headed south quick.

I think Monday is going to be bloody.

We'll have to wait and see.

Hopefully Monday morning . Next week is option expiration and there are a lot of shorts. Could have a wicked short squeeze up day - at anytime during the week. However, with TSP I would not want to try to catch it. The deadline makes trying to trade these markets to tricky. USD is badly oversold also - those in I fund could be really take some USD related losses.

Listen to a lot of business shows over the weekend their mantra - now is a good time to buy - not good.

I have been saying for about 10 days - F fund looks really painful right now to be in :embarrest: . I think the PPI is going to move yields up. We shall see.

 

[Wizard]

Bernanke's Conundrum

Based on the price action in the broad markets yesterday it appears a larger audience has finally woken up to Bernanke's conundrum

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5165.htm

The new Fed Chair has been handed a turd. That is about as kindly as I can put it.

 

[Show-me]

Mom!

Happy Mothers Day!!!


http://www.holidays.net/mother/story.htm

 

[Wizard]

Another corporate holiday to shake your wallet clean. :embarrest:

 

[ayla]

Nice summary in NY Times. Not sure what the comment about "negative psychology" means except negative for investors, right? Tuesday may be a volatile day, I just can't figure out which direction. Need a reliable crystal ball, I guess.

from: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/14/business/yourmoney/14mark.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
(may need to be a subscriber, not sure)

Market Week
Mixed Signals Are Expected for Fed Policy
By CONRAD DE AENLLE
Published: May 14, 2006

FEDERAL Reserve policy makers indicated last week that data on the housing market and on the economy's use of vital resources would influence their decisions on interest rates. Several reports scheduled for Tuesday should supply crucial information on both fronts.

Two indicators of strength in the housing market are expected to provide a cloudy picture. Housing starts are estimated in a Bloomberg News poll of economists to have edged down to an annual rate of 1.95 million units in April, from 1.960 million in March, while a dip is foreseen in building permits, to an annual rate of 2.040 million units, from 2.094 million units.

Mixed signals are anticipated in manufacturing data for April to be released the same morning. Industrial production is forecast to have risen 0.5 percent, down from 0.6 percent the month before. Capacity utilization, the proportion of the nation's factories that are humming along, is projected to have risen to 81.5 percent, from 81.3 percent.

... no ambiguity at all. The economy is progressing better than many believe... the Fed is far from finished.

.... "We continue to believe it's not all over on the rate hike side. ...

...does not expect an increase at the next meeting, ... predicted two more before the year is out.

"The Fed may pause, but I think there will be more rate hikes because the economy, in many ways, is actually accelerating," Mr. Williams said.

... bullish on stocks for the long term, but Wall Street is "voting for a slowdown so the Fed will stop raising rates," he said. "There's a real negative psychology burned into the place now."

DATA WATCH As if the housing and manufacturing reports were not enough to occupy the minds of traders, data on April producer prices will also be announced on Tuesday. The latest spike in energy prices is expected to have resulted in a 0.8 percent increase in producer prices, according to the Bloomberg poll. After factoring out food and energy costs, a much tamer 0.2 percent rise is forecast.

 

[Birchtree]

ayla,

Good data - thanks. Hope to read more in the future. There is just so much negativity out there currently - makes one wonder if the sun will ever shine again. I'll be doing some buying if we get an intraday low tomorrow - got the plan worked out.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Wizard]

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries may extend their biggest drop in a decade as international investors shun U.S. assets because of the dollar's decline.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001007&sid=age4VYKDBOtg&refer=rates

Dollar drops - yields must go up. :embarrest:

 

[Wizard]

USD is getting ready for round two with Bob Sapp (Ultimate Fighter):

Needless to say it is begging for mercy. :blink:

 

[Rod]

There is just so much negativity out there currently...

Dennis - permabull #1

Great contrarian indicator, huh?

 

[Wizard]

Great contrarian indicator, huh?

Yeah, all the "experts" are saying buy this dip. Heard one of the Fox News "gurus" saying this will be the last good buying opporunity left for this year. :worried:

 

[Quips]

I'd go so far to say it is a good time to dollar cost average, but that's about it ... no big moves for me.

 

[Wizard]

Gold up $8.00. :embarrest: Who knew?

 

[Wizard]

Asia getting CRUSHED and the USD is starting to bounce. :embarrest:

 

[Fivetears]

Wizard, think it's time for a quick dive in the stock lake; couple days or so? C, S?

 

[Wizard]

Wizard, think it's time for a quick dive in the stock lake; couple days or so? C, S?

The two major inflation (PPI/CPI) data reports this week are a worry. The market seems to be spooked by that right now. However, this is an options expiration week.

I just am not smart enough to know how to play it with the TSP deadline. I am playing (through my trading account) the market starts off rough in the am on Monday (I discussed in last weeks thread near the end why). That is about as far as my headlights go out too.


TSP needs to change the deadline. The noon handicap is to much to overcome in this type of market.

 

[Wizard]

Euroland is getting killed.

TECDAX is down over 6%:blink: .

CAC is only down 1.89%. :worried:

Plus USD is making a good comeback.

I fund could be down 2-3% today.

 

[Wizard]

USD index up nearly up a full penny now.:blink:

 

[bkrownd]

Yeesssssss! Bargain time, baby!