Market Talk / May 14 - 20

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 18, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Horsemen Rule! Vestors worry about Cartel rates.
Other Yak................................Lube climbs on fears, demand, and supply.
Jester Yak...............................Have we reached despondency?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1261.81, dn -8.51
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.093, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-5.526, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........7.70, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 29.21 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.14, up +0.72
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red

Tin Box:
Position.....................................70% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: NA. Trail: NA.

 

[Wizard]

A lot of people have made money since then going long. Some have set in the G or the F the whole time. What's the point? Remember Wiz, this is a site about TSP.

I was talking about TSP.

 

[Wizard]

F .03
C (.10)
S (.15)
I (.04)

May 18th NAVs.

 

[robo]

Is 50 the New 25?

By Liz Rappaport
Markets Columnist
5/18/2006 6:27 PM EDT

If the Fed is so far behind the curve, maybe it should raise the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in June. Hell, the Europeans might do it. With hawkish Fedspeak ramping up and the stock market slipping into a depressive state, a 50 basis point hike might just be the Prozac that the U.S. markets need.

Is 50 the New 25?
Page 2

In hindsight, it appears Pisani confused Poole's comments that the fed fund futures were accurate in roughly pricing in 50 percent odds of a June rate hike as a discussion of 50 basis points. (A CNBC spokesman could not be reached for comment.)



http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/markets/marketfeatures/10286734.html

 

[Wizard]

Greenspan, in his first public U.S. speech since retiring in January from a storied tenure leading the Fed, predicted there is no danger of a total collapse of the housing market.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/05/18/D8HMIV5G0.html

Gee, that's comforting, I think. :laugh:

 

[James48843]

Nikkei is bouncing back- now only down 30 points.

Could we have found the floor?

 

[Wizard]

Late payments on US Mortgages rise; 29% of borrowers who took out home loans in 2005 owe more than the value of their houses

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10005893.shtml

 

[JOVARN]

I missed all the dialogue this week as I was on a temporary duty assignment in the Florida Keys. I was patrolling the sandbars looking for illegal thong activity. It was a tough assignment but someone had to do it. I did get a few black and blues from my wife who kept punching me in the arms; as I shifted my head from side to side!! in order to catch the perpetrators of said illegal activity. Back to reality.


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http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2006/pi20060517_831479.htm
STAYING POSITIVE. So, even though the evidence isn't overwhelming that oil prices will tumble immediately and inflation worries will evaporate overnight, we believe the technical signals from oil-price charts, combined with the projected slowdown in U.S. economic growth, will ultimately ease the concerns over oil and inflation and allow equity prices to work their way higher in the quarters ahead.

As a result, S&P is maintaining its positive outlook on equities. In fact, on May 10, S&P's Investment Policy Committee voted to raise its mid-year target for the S&P 500 to 1345 from 1325, and its year-end target to 1385 from 1360, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, an expected moderation of oil prices, and the end of the Fed's rate-tightening program. Six-month and full-year price gains are now projected at 7.8% and 11.0%, respectively.

Industry Momentum List Update
For regular readers of the Sector Watch column, here is this week's list of the industries in the S&P 1500 with Relative Strength Rankings of "5" (price performances in the past 12 months that were among the top 10% of the industries in the S&P 1500) as of May 12, 2006.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
5-15-2006
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2006/pi20060515_680438.htm

The key right now, in our opinion, is whether the latest weakness turns out to be just another pullback or will we finally see a decent-sized correction, which we believe is long overdue.

If this turns into a correction, there is plenty of support underneath current prices as far as the S&P 500 is concerned. The most recent lows for the S&P 500 are at 1280, 1272, 1254, and 1248. The 80-day moving average lies at 1291, and the 150-day exponential moving average sits at 1274. Strong, intermediate-term chart support comes in at 1246, in our opinion. A 50% retracement of the rally since October also comes in near 1246.

We think key intermediate-term support comes in at 2200 for the Nasdaq. A 50% retracement of the rally since October comes in at 2200 as well as trendline support drawn off the April and October 2005 lows.

 

[JOVARN]

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
CALENDARS: Economic Calendar for the next few weeks but next weeks events along with a Bazillion other events can continue to rock to market

 

[James48843]

Incredible:

Stocks TANKING AGAIN!

Stocks TANKING AGAIN!


Can you believe it?

 

[Rod]

Incredible:

Stocks TANKING AGAIN!

Stocks TANKING AGAIN!


Can you believe it?

Now they are shooting back up.

It's going to be a roller coaster ride today.

 

[tsptalk]

I can't decide if we rally Monday, or crash. What's scary is how earily similar today's market is to 1987 (where we crashed the Monday AFTER a bad week.)

But there is one big difference. Stock valuations. They were overvalued in 1987 when compared to bond yields where now they are still quite undervalued (comparing 10-yr bond yield to S&P 500 earnings yield.)

Too many people looking for a bounce. Still need more fear. Will another 100 point drop do it, or do we need to see a 300 to 500 point drop?

 

[JOVARN]

Moving from 50%G to 50% S and will continue to hold 50% I.
Looking for the bounce, this may prove to be a bad move but we are below the 200 DMA so I am taking a shot, just hope I don’t shoot myself in the foot.
There are a hose of reasons not to be in the market; housing report, price of gas, foreclosures, Iran and so on. The one reason to be in the market is that this down turn may be seen as a buying opportunity, lets hope the big dogs feel the same way.

 

[James48843]

I can't decide if we rally Monday, or crash. What's scary is how earily similar today's market is to 1987 (where we crashed the Monday AFTER a bad week.)

Tom, you are right- there is the risk of a "Black Monday" here.

I'm pulling everything back into "G" at the close today. I thought we were done moving down, but I guess not. Too much risk to stay in for me, and I'm usually a big risk taker.

I'm out end of today.

 

[Fivetears]

In the Chicago futures market, chances that the Fed will raise interest rates at its June meeting rose to 62 percent on Friday, from 54 percent the previous day.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060519/bs_nm/markets_forex_dc_1

 

[Wizard]

Option expiration day. The fight is for SPX 1258. If that gets taken out...it will get ugly.

 

[Fivetears]

"Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, it's been down, and people don't want to fight the trend. You don't want to be long the weekend in that situation," said John Caldwell, chief investment strategist at McDonald Financial Group, part of Key Corp.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060519/bs_nm/markets_usa_stocks_dc_3

Is that the Ronald McDonald Financial Group? :blink:

Whatever the case... I wouldn't recommend an extended stay in the market over the weekend either.

 

[Spaf]

I can't decide if we rally Monday, or crash. What's scary is how earily similar today's market is to 1987 (where we crashed the Monday AFTER a bad week.)

But there is one big difference. Stock valuations. They were overvalued in 1987 when compared to bond yields where now they are still quite undervalued (comparing 10-yr bond yield to S&P 500 earnings yield.)

Too many people looking for a bounce. Still need more fear. Will another 100 point drop do it, or do we need to see a 300 to 500 point drop?

My option is to hold the last 20-30% for a leveling off, or upturn in the S-STO / MACD.
The RSI is oversold and other indicators are at lower lows. Is it the bottom? Maybe, maybe not. Mr. Market won't show his cards. However, with indexes we're holding face cards.

You gotta love it. Well back to cleaning fish!..... Ree-gards

 

[Wizard]

Bulls are fighting to keep SPX 1258. I added to my short at 1258.82.

Get er done. Take er down. :embarrest:

G fund is beating the C fund year to date.

 

[Fivetears]

Times Up! Hope everyone has made good choices.
...and Spaf... is that your light on? That's not cleaning fish. :nuts:
I'm going to go wash the truck.