Market Talk / May 14 - 20

[Wizard]

S&P Cuts Nasdaq Debt to Junk

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2006/pi20060516_825953.htm

 

[bkrownd]

Is there finally going to be some relief for those of us early in our accumulation phase? This is a good start...

 

[Wizard]

What does the after hours look like, you ask?.

1 QQQQ NM 71,093,209 39.3000 16:26:04.8 172 -0.5600 -1.40
2 SPY AM 53,664,850 126.8400 16:26:19.1 106 -2.4700 -1.91
3 MSFT NM 35,493,347 22.7800 16:26:16.4 115 -0.2300 -1.00
4 INTC NM 28,605,611 18.6400 16:26:39.3 130 -0.4200 -2.20
5 SIRI NM 22,395,215 4.0100 16:25:47.1 68 -0.2100 -4.98
6 AMAT NM 19,881,209 16.9500 16:20:02.8 45 -0.9000 -5.04

 

[learning]

I fund.

"Ohh the humanity! sob crying sob"

It's ok. It will come back and I can put more in LATER. Not now, but LATER.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Are we all beating those brilliantly developed, statistically profitable, wonderfully diversified L funds at least? Diversification??!!!

 

[Fivetears]

More damage control and propaganda...
RPT-ANALYSIS-Potential June Fed pause may take a leap of faith
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN17219241
Wonder if Mr. "Chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York" Ian Shepherdson thinks his rhetoric will influence Bernie; or more over... the MARKETS?

 

[Wizard]

More damage control and propaganda...

The Fed needs to take a "leap of faith" and stop raising rates.

Please meet Mr. USD:

 

[Fivetears]

Are we all beating those brilliantly developed, statistically profitable, wonderfully diversified L funds at least? Diversification??!!!

I've come to believe those "L" funds are just like all the prepackaged meals and TV Dinners the grocery stores sell us... a convenience yes... but at a price.

The Lazy Funds. :nuts:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 17, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks get whacked by Horsemen.
Other Yak................................Lube under 70.
Jester Yak...............................We're close to where we were Jan 1?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1270.32, dn -21.76
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.050, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-2.654, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........15.56, flat.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 31.96 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................68.69, dn +0.84
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red

Tin Box:
Position.....................................70% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: NA. Trail: NA.

 

[Quips]

The contrarian point of view is to dollar cost average NOW.

Even if one did pull out or cut back on stock funds a couple weeks ago, advantage is only taken when that is returned into the stock funds.

Yet it is still to early in my opinion to try and catch that falling knife.

 

[mlk_man]

Are we all beating those brilliantly developed, statistically profitable, wonderfully diversified L funds at least? Diversification??!!!

LOL, you know they might be calling one of "our" better return folks to manage them..........

 

[mlk_man]

LOL, you know they might be calling one of "our" better return folks to manage them..........

Oh BTW, sugarandspice have the best or close to it returns for the month.........I hope they didn't kill each other..........

 

[Wizard]

F - (.02)
C - (.23)
S - (.28)
I - (.61)

May 17 change in NAVs.

 

[bkrownd]

I've come to believe those "L" funds are just like all the prepackaged meals and TV Dinners the grocery stores sell us... a convenience yes... but at a price.

The Lazy Funds. :nuts:

You got a problem with an intelligently planned retirement investment? Most people don't have the time or interest to study investments properly, and even if they did they may not make good decisions. The L Fund concept is solid. Beats the pants off of leaving money in the bank, money market or G-Fund, which is what a lot of people will do. In the end, the numbers will do all the talking.

 

[robo]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged on Wednesday, wiping out $64 billion in market value from the 30 companies that make up the Dow and giving the blue-chip average its biggest one-day drop in three years, as investors bet the Federal Reserve will need to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation.

RALLY TIME CHICKEN LITTLE SAYS!

 

[Dave M]

Beating the L-funds is no joke. Take another look at the returns spreadsheet kicking around here. The L-funds represent solid advice, free advice for us to use in our allocation decisions.

Dave

 

[James48843]

Well guys- what do you think?

We've knocked a good portion off each of the three stock funds with the downside in the market over the last week. Each is about 5% less than where it was a week and a half ago.

Is it time yet to plunge back in?

I'm getting close on making that decision- but I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

I'm basing that on the facts that :

1. We've gotten a good five percent move down already;
2. Other fundemetnal factors are not really changed much.
3. Price of oil has begun to slip back downward;
4. metals are off their peak prices;
5. Unemployment is not really that much changed;
6. tax cuts got passed;
7. economy does not seem to be grinding to a halt over $3 gas prices;
8. Although there is a little inflation bliping up, it seems tied only to the price of energy, which is to be expected, and not to any other factor I can lay a finger on. So inflation is pretty much under control if you exclude energy;

So my crystal ball is saying that this might be a good time to move back in.

What do you think?

What other factors tell you yes or no on going back into stocks soon?

 

[Birchtree]

I've been looking back at the initial leg of the current bull market - the Dow started up on March 11, 2003 from a value of 7524.06. It traveled 3000 points to 10,737.70 on February 11, 2004. During that run there were several corrections to contend with and make people nervous. The deepest was a 5.7% at the end of 2/04. The rest were very moderate in the 2.4% and 4.0% range. The number of correction were 7 - and the correct strategy looking back was to sit tight and enjoy the dollar cost averaging or divident reinvestments. Therefore, patience is virtuous.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Wizard]

Your "bull market" is a bounce in a bear market that started March 2000.

You want to see the PE to be below 20 and the div yield (now 1.4%) to be closer to the 10 yr before ya get all bulled up.

http://www.stockselector.com/sp500.asp

S&P 500 Averages
PE Ratio: 31.7

PE of 31.7 is consider NOSE BLEED.

 

[Birchtree]

That's healthy disagreement - I believe we are in back to back secular bull markets. That bear market was a cyclical cycle.