Market Talk / May 13th - 19th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
May 13, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box, The 5-Tribes and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................The moving averages for SPX remain bullish as the 13d MA is above the 50d MA.

Con-Yak....................................Stochastics for the SPX reads bearish with %K under %D. And, the ROC is turning down from recent extended levels. The end of last week was a bit volatile as we dropped below the trend line support only to be partially rescued by dip buyers on Friday.

Jester-Yak.................................Don't trade against the dominant trend!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops................................................Alert (-1%)...Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1505.85 +0.23 for the week.....1497............1482

Dollar.......................................82.12 +0.37 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............62.37 +0.44 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.91..F=11.37..C=16.77..S=20.41..I=24.28
....(1 week past)........G=11.90..F=11.38..C=16.76..S=20.40..I=24.40
....(2 week past)........G=11.89..F=11.34..C=16.62..S=20.28..I=24.14
....(3 week past)........G=11.88..F=11.34..C=16.51..S=20.19..I=24.24
....(4 week past)........G=11.87..F=11.28..C=16.16..S=20.00..I=23.93

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

5-Tribes.
Tomorrow.................Tribes holding 3 bears and 2 bulls.

The Barn Yard
Location...................100% G-Fund. See what happens!

 

[James48843]

Filled up the wife's truck yesteday- $76 for the full tank.

Jeeze! If that doesn't dampen the markets, I don't know what will.

Any wagers how high we will go?

 

[ChemEng]

Its sitting at $3 a gallon here. Thankfully our cars are fairly fuel efficient (Intrepid and Focus), but even gas with these cars is getting expensive. I cant imagine the gas prices not hitting people in their pockets though...

On the other hand, wouldnt be surprised if it was an election year ploy to generate goodwill for republican party if they can "magically" reduce the gas prices later this year. /end conspiracy theory/

 

[anthony]

Is Tuesday the Day?

1. Trader Fred's overal market strength suggesting a 4% market drop over a two-week period is 10 days old, and he says it leads by a week or more.

2. What do you think of comparing two Monday-Tuesday combos as parallel to what's going on now. Look at gradual climbs leading up to average Mondays on 26 Feb and slightly smaller version on 12 March. Both average Mondays followed by Tuesday drops of 3.5% and 2% respectively.

Any thoughts? Am I reading way too much into the Monday-Tuesday thing? Has any study ever been done about what days of the week are most susceptible to market drops?

 

[Show-me]

First, Happy Mothers Day ladies.

This guy, Weekly Market Monitor, think a 6-7% pull back until June. LINK.

Gas here on the MO/IL state line is $3.27 in IL and $3.20 in MO. OUTRAGEOUS! I will add that I also think it will go much higher. I keep thinking back to our refinery bottle neck. More demand, but no more capacity to meet that demand. You can pump all the oil you want and have it all above ground, but if you can not turn it into gasoline your done. Supply and demand.

I do think the Retail Sales were effected by the cold snap and the fact the stores had the wrong merchandise out. Now, I believe the Retail Numbers will obviously better next month with a declining trend due to gasoline.

The thing that confounds me is that they, the market and Fed, look at the Core and not the complete PPI and CPI. The consumer pays the complete price including FOOD AND ENERGY. That will effect the Retail Sales, Home Sale, Consumer Confidence, etc.

It will be an interesting year.

 

[Show-me]

See ya guys, my wife wants to go fishing this morning. I'm a lucky guy, what a woman!

 

[vectorman]

Trader Fred says the SP500 is still in a decline and market showing signs of weakness. http://www.tsptalk.com/system.html

The VIX is in a sight uptrend, showing a decreasing wedge pattern, breakout may be in the direction of trend. This looks like the week where many indexes are encountering resistence ..China..bonds..banking..S&P..etc. In any case look for volatility to pick up this week. All eyes will be on CPI (inflation) report tomorrow.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Articles/Inflation_Trends_chart.htm

http://stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/cpi/year/2007/yearly/05/index.html

 

[tsptalk]

This looks like the week where many indexes are encountering resistence ..China..bonds..banking..S&P..etc. In any case look for volatility to pick up this week. All eyes will be on CPI (inflation) report tomorrow.

... Plus it's an options expiration week.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 14, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, 5-Tribes, and The Barn Yard.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks [SPX] holds bullish with 13d moving average above 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................Stochastics [SPX] still reading bearish with %K under %D.

Jester-Yak................................Don't diversify badly...Deciding that 8 is generally enough!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1503.15 -2.70........X1497.............1482

Dollar........................................82.05 -0.07 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............62.46 -3.35 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow!

5-Tribes
Tomorrow...................................Tribes holding 4 bears and 1 bull.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G.

 

[wht00ss]

How Will This Bull Market End?

Posted on May 14th, 2007

Larry MacDonald submits: How will the bull market in stocks end? One scenario is an escalation in long-term interest rates relative to the market earnings yield (inverse of price-earning ratio) to a point where the incentive for takeovers and buybacks is eliminated.
One way that could happen is through overheating in the world economy. U.S. trading partners will have less need to suppress their currencies by printing domestic currency to mop up U.S. dollars, which in turn will curtail growth in U.S. dollar reserves and the recycling of those reserves into U.S. bonds. The end result: as foreign demand for U.S. bonds trails off, their yields (long-term interest rates) will climb.
Another way in which the bull market can end is through a decline in the market’s earnings yield. This can come about from an appreciation in stock prices at a faster rpace than growth in earnings per share, as is happening now thanks to the merger and acquisitions boom and slowdown in the economy.
In short, keep an eye on China’s so far unsuccessful attempt to cool its runaway economy. And keep another eye on the i) re-rating of stocks driven by the arbitraging of interest rates and the earnings yield and ii) slowing in earnings growth underway as the U.S. economy cools off. At some point, these trends are capable of snuffing out the bull market.
Maybe the end will come as soon as the second half of this year, as veteran technical analyst Ron Meisels suggests in his latest Phases and Cycles newsletter. His bullish market calls have been on the mark throughout this extended phase, but now he is saying: “…by the end of the second quarter the bull’s fuel tanks will likely run close to empty. Therefore, the second half of the year may … bring an end to the 2002-07 bull/bear cycle.”

http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/35326

 

[James48843]

Gas at 3.39 here in michigan.

Got me to thinking a little. How much is the "core cpi" going up?

Not the "official" figures out of washington- but rather in the REAL prices I pay here every day.

I looked at some real prices, just to get an idea.

Here we go:

A 11.2 ounce bottle of Head and Shoulder's clone no-brand shampoo. My last bottle, purchased in October, was $2.99 for an 11.2 ounce bottle. This week I bought another. The size changed from 11.2 ounces, to 11.4 ounces. But the price jumped to $3.49.

A kids meal at McDonalds- went from 2.99 locally to 3.49.

A pack of cigarettes went from 4.39, to 4.99 here in the last two months.

A frozen pizza, from $2.99 to 3.49

A bag of oreo cookies- from 1.99 to 2.37.

A can of Chef Boy-ar-Dee raviloi- from 99 cents to $1.17.

Yep, there is REAL inflation going on.

Check your cupboard- what products do you have that have jumped in price in the last 90 days or so?


Do you have

 

[Show-me]

Hey, that don't count. <sarcastic tone> Excluding food and energy everything is just fine.:blink:

 

[Show-me]

Watch out for the shrinking container trick that the manufactures are using. That was on the news several months ago that the manufactures were quietly making the size of the container smaller while keeping the price the same. I have experiance this.

 

[EW_ret]

Good information to have since I'm planning a trip to Richmond, Michigan next month for a wedding. In my area of Virginia regular gas is low at $2.90 gallon. It was $2.80 just two days ago. The food and energy price increases are real and above 10% since the beginning of year. This will be felt by all, but especially by those living week to week. Glad I'm retired now and can control my gas consumption, but I still need to eat. I only drove 1,000 miles the past three months. The last time I filled up, gas was only $2.30 a gallon.

 

[Show-me]

Just read Tom's comments this morning and China's Shanghai Composite took a nice dip last night. Down 3.64%

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Watch out for the shrinking container trick that the manufactures are using. That was on the news several months ago that the manufactures were quietly making the size of the container smaller while keeping the price the same. I have experiance this.

Showme... Yea, look at a 3 pound can of coffee, it's now 2.5 lbs. Sneeky b@$t@rd$! I've noticed this on other products too. Sometime the container is the same, but it's only 3/4 full!!!!

 

[Show-me]

USNAVY...,
Makes it hard to live on a budget when your not getting the amount you thought you paid for.

 

[Show-me]

Stocks look primed to slip

Futures fall as Wal-Mart reports in-line results and Home Depot falls short of forecasts ahead of key inflation reading.

May 15 2007: 7:39 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A big earnings miss from Home Depot and disappointing outlook from Wal-Mart Stores had stocks poised to fall at the start, ahead of the government's latest inflation reading.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/15/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Going to be a wild morning and I got my coffee!

 

[Show-me]

Just watch the CPI on CNBC and they are not very excited about it. What's up with that?

 

[Show-me]

Even the UK and EZ popped and then fell off. Were is the rally? :worried: