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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Market Talk / March 4th - 10th
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
weatherweenie
Well-known member
8:33am ET BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Futures indications are now signaling a strong start for stocks as an encouraging jobs report provides more evidence that a soft landing for the economy remains on track. Nonfarm payrolls in February rose 97,000 (consensus 100,000) while payroll figures for January and December were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 55,000 new jobs. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% (consensus 0.3%), bringing the year/year rate to 4.1%; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5% from 4.6%. Bonds are getting hammered in response to the data as the yield on the 10-year note (-14/32) rises to 4.56%.
The February jobs report came in basically in line with estimates which the stock market likes but it really likes the the big upward revision to January's number (111,000 to 146,000) which is is killing the bond market - Proving once again that these initial releases are almost a waste of time.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Today would be encouraging if we got the "Big Valley" rebound to SPX 1440 - almost a classic setup to really hammer the bears that are caught. Don't mess with Goldilocks. The improvement in the trade deficit could be a catalyst. It's going to be a long day in the pits while they contemplate the next interest rate drop.
I am always wrong when I make a call like this, but my feeling is that anyone who shorted the gap opening may want to cover their position as we get closer to the close. Also, people are expecting another "sell before the weekend" last minute decline. Makes me think the market will stay afloat this last hour.
There! Now the market can tank.
Show-me
Well-known member
I am always wrong when I make a call like this, but my feeling is that anyone who shorted the gap opening may want to cover their position as we get closer to the close. Also, people are expecting another "sell before the weekend" last minute decline. Makes me think the market will stay afloat this last hour.
There! Now the market can tank.
Nice call Tom!
Could someone please comment on the technicals affecting the S&P500? Looking at the 6-month daily chart, it closed positive at 1402.85 (+.96) or +.07%. Frankly, I expected a correction today and we still might get it on Monday. However, this benchmark index has held up surprisingly well, and next week we have options expiration which could be a plus week. I am not sure if the candlestick today is a true Doji symbol, but buyers and sellers seem almost equal in strength. The gains occurred on low volume, but Slow STO %K(10) %D(3) 29.67,23.65 showed the 2 lines giving a buy signal after rising over the 20 oversold level. CMF(10) -0.210 showing less selling pressure than before (perhaps new money inflows are getting the upper hand?) Opinions will be appreciated.Just heard Jim Cramer on MAD MONEY say that the Bears are intent on taking down (through the pertinent ETF's) Goldman, Lehman, and Bear Stearns before Friday. He stated that you will be able to buy those stocks lower on Fridat next week. Assuming he is right, and depending on the impact and eight of these financials on the rest of the stock market, the week could be negative instead of positive. Only for your consideration.
Just an observation, in late May / early June, the bounce took the S&P back up to the 50-day moving average before pulling back again. This bounce seems to be in no mans land after breaking above the 38.2% retracement, but still below the 50% retracement (1418) which happens to be where the 50-day moving average will be Monday or Tuesday. That's where sellers may step up again.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Sponsor,
March and April are historically better months! The sell off was a surprise. Now the market is nervious. Has a case of the jitters! Is this going to be a soft or hard landing?
Well I'll play March and April, but after that, it's a re-figure. Heck, I'm retired, fishing season nears and the G-fund is nice and toasty for me!
Regards.......And be careful!......
SpafSpaf,
Thanks for the welcome advise. I am taking some calculated risks, watching fudamentals, watching technical indicators, and making sure that I don't hesitate to ask questions from you fine people in this website. Thanks again, and enjoy your retirement, but keep posting your ideas and sharing your advise. I appreciate it!
Sponsor,
March and April are historically better months! The sell off was a surprise. Now the market is nervious. Has a case of the jitters! Is this going to be a soft or hard landing?
Well I'll play March and April, but after that, it's a re-figure. Heck, I'm retired, fishing season nears and the G-fund is nice and toasty for me!
Regards.......And be careful!......
Spaf[/quote]
James48843
Well-known member
I think the bounce back this week was stronger than I was expecting. It goes to show that this market is just plain unpredictable.
I saw this weeks action as a sign that we might just not get that second down leg I was expecting. And I moved, today, back out of safety and into stocks.
Which means that tuesday the market will tank. :-(Similar threads
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