Market Talk / March 26 - April 1

[tsptalk]

No surprises but I'll bet there was some hope for some dovish comments about future hikes. It was a worse case scenario. If we had sold off before the meeting we could have rallied today instead. But since the market is still near the highs, it had to spook some of the more optimistic speculators who were disappointed. If the past is any indication we should bounce back quickly. I just hope that isn't the case because we will likely continue to flounder rather then breakout.

jmo,
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

Hey, Birchtree is bullish and I'm looking for a pullback. What are the chances? :laugh:

 

[bkrownd]

That little 2PM dip in the charts down there saved me a bit of money today. Thank you, Ben! Happy Contribution Day to meeee, Happy Contribution Day to meeeee, Happy Contribution Day to meee-eee, Happy Contribution Day to mEEEEE!

 

[Rod]

You're right. It has seemed very quiet for a couple of days. Makes you almost wish Greg was around (I said almost)

Dave
<><

I'm, sure he is around... perhaps as the "Wizard of Oz"???

No offense Wizard...:embarrest:

 

[Rod]

Re: I'm giddy under $14.00

Got some dollar cost contribution arriving at the end of the week - sure would be nice to pay under $14.00 for the privilege of accumulating more shares of the under appreciated C fund. I heard that...to me it's a small silver lining.

The Fed is not my friend and everything they say should be looked at through a jaundiced eye. In May 2000, Fed policy makers suggested they expected to continue raising rates. That May meeting was , in fact, the last rate increase that year. By early 2001 the Fed was cutting rates. I believe they are done. These boys talk clarity but prefer to promote uncertainty. I plan to ignore them.

Dennis

You get that puppy under $14, and I will most probably join you.

 

[robo]

Why I might go long the QQQQ's soon.

Why NDX is strong : Rotation

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2006/03/why-ndx-is-strong-rotation.html


Nice blog article on market rotation.

 

[bkrownd]

By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman

Oh man, Ron Paul is still around? Blast from the past. Heh.

 

[Wimpy]

Bernanke: CONAN THE MONEYMAN​

Bernanke's past discourse, prior to becoming FED Chairman, has portrayed him as 'EASY MONEY'. Yesterday, he let everyone know that he is a 'tough guy'. The foreign money inflows have been waning a bit and he wanted to instill a little more dollar confidence to keep that money coming in. Will it work? It bought him a little time, but not much.​

He is definitely caught between a rock and hard place. What happens to business activity with a higher discount rate? It goes lower. This negatively affects profits, personal income, and tax revenue. What does this do to the Federal Budget Deficit? It sends that deficit skyrocketing to the moon. How will the shortfall be made up? By printing more money.

Bernanke talks tough, but actions speak louder than words. If on one hand he raises rates and while using the other hand to infuse large amounts of liquidity (printing press money) into the system, what has he really done?

The elimination of M3 will facilitate this sleight of hand.

Bottom line: The dollar is going down. Invest accordingly.

 

[vectorman]

GDP to be released tomorrow. Should be a big market mover for bonds.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Rod]

Folks must be getting in trouble at work for being on here...

I expected a lot of bulls to be "beating their chests" here...

Perhaps it's because we've all seen that A LOT can happen within the last few hours of trading.

I'm sure the beating of the chests will commence around 1600...

 

[Rod]

Go go techs... new 5 year high:nuts:

So, was anyone 100 (S)???

 

[nnuut]

"I" Fund sitting at 1.25% @ 14:56 EST, MSCI reports -(0.355%), What the ____? #*()))%^$
Don't Ya just love it?

 

[TiCKed]

Bet we get it all back tomorrow.....(Is my lack of genius showing again? )

Ok....It probably wasn't the most unique or insightful prediction ever....but I'm right so seldom that I declare victory, and the right to do the *Happy Dance*.

 

[nnuut]

TicKed said;
"Ok....It probably wasn't the most unique or insightful prediction ever....but I'm right so seldom that I declare victory, and the right to do the *Happy Dance*. "

You're the MAN!!! Why didn't you tell me that? I dropped out of the "I" today!!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

"Originally Posted by Birchtree

The Fed is not my friend and everything they say should be looked at through a jaundiced eye. In May 2000, Fed policy makers suggested they expected to continue raising rates. That May meeting was , in fact, the last rate increase that year. By early 2001 the Fed was cutting rates. I believe they are done. These boys talk clarity but prefer to promote uncertainty. I plan to ignore them.

Dennis"

You may be on to somethin there, Birch..by the looks of this surge in buying, smart money may be thinking the same thing...'course it could be short covering too

 

[Soldat]

As for the I fund, we were un-"fairly adjusted" last night.

28 Feb shows EAFE -.138% or -2.64 cents
28 Feb I fund posts -.89% or 17 cents (~14 cent adjustment due to dollar rising after EAFE close)

29 Feb shows EAFE -.355% or -6.77 cents

This shows us that the EAFE (if it corresponds with the I fund) should post on 29 Feb at 19.006 which would be $19.01

Of course, this goes by the assumption that they repay the full amount of the adjustment and re-value to correspond with the EAFE. It could be under 19.01 if they do not repay in full or over 19.01 if they un-"fairly adjust" the returns again.

 

[Wheels]

This shows us that the EAFE (if it corresponds with the I fund) should post on 29 Feb at 19.006 which would be $19.01[/b]

Just a minor point but wouldn't 19.006 be rounded down to 19.00 and not up to 19.01.

Dave
<><

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 29, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Rebound! Nasdaq at 5 year high.
Other Yak................................Lube up on a host of problems.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1302.89, up +9.66
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.012, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.543, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........71.23, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 57.11 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................66.45, up +0.38
Oil Markers...............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow

Tin Box:
Position...................................75% Stocks
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: 1294

 

[Wimpy]

Conan the Moneyman's (Bernanke) latest effort to bolster the dollar flopped.

Oh, I'm sorry...he wasn't trying to bolster the dollar...he was FIGHTING inflation. Hmmm...since the FED creates inflation, he must be fighting with himself. He better be careful or he could fall on his own sword.

What is he to do now...raise rates again because the economy is soooo strong?

I wonder if he would have the nerve to stand up in front of the GM and Delphi workers, who recently got their pink slips, and explain how the economy is soooo strong?

The real reason for raising rates was because of waning foreign capital inflows. Conan is hoping that everyone buys the noise of the strong economy rhetoric.

Foreign money smells a rat. The dollar is toast.

 

[Soldat]

I dont believe all that but theres still some truth in it. I think that the dollar will trade down to 105 Y or lower by EOY. It all depends on world events. Either way, we should be looking at around 20-30% EAFE gains by EOY unless the markets slump big time.

Lets just remember that a substantially weaker dollar will really blunt the Japanese exporters' profits and flatten out the Nikkei.

Good luck and great trading