Market Talk / March 19 - 25

Sort by newest Sort by date
Getting updates from TA's telling me to go short and stay out of the market. I'm not going short just yet, but I'm considering it in my new brokerage account. I'm posting this because the Smart Money is now down to around 38%, Dumb Money is over 50%. The shorts could get squeezed again and take us higher, but this could be the start of some kind of correction. Then again, only the Shadow knows for sure. Mr Market has been beating up on the shorts all year!!! Many have large single digit losses. The point is the shorts are increasing so stay cautious my friends. The risk/reward continues to increase as we make new highs without a correction. This could be a contrarian indicator, but is worth keeping a eye on... This Market just continues to Climb the Wall of many Worries!!! If your on the train enjoy the ride, but don't forget to take some gains only the way.

The Trend is your Friend. Good trading/investing!!! The main two TA's I follow for longer term investing are still long. Heavy to the International Markets.

mlk man,

Well said! "The market is going to implode.....................sometime"
 
Last edited:
Rokid,

The dollar is doomed. There is no other way out of the terrible imbalances that exist. This will be bad for G-Fund holders as purchasing power will decline as the printing presses heat up.

The I-Fund will retain the most value as the Asian markets are coming into their own industrial boom and the currency component of this fund will directly benefit from the dollar's decline. The Asians are breaking away from the dependency of American markets and building up their domestic markets. Some of the homes in these third world countries have satellite dishes on their rooftops and gasoline generators providing the electricity to power them. These households are seeing what the 'haves' have and want some for themselves. These people, even while living in cardboard shacks, save 30 fold what Americans save (percentage wise). They will be redeploying that savings to enjoy a bit of the good life we've squandered over the years.

The C and S fund are the most overvalued and have the most to lose.

The F-Fund enjoys gains during times of declining interest rates. The long-term trend for interest rates will be UP! I'm not going against that trend. It will take much, much higher interest rates to woo back Asian money after the dollar exodus. Bye-Bye housing market and wealth effect as the American consumer enters detox. This won't be good for common equities. Housing is the number one driver of the economy. Once those ARMs are jacked up...the party punch bowl will be taken away.

If a TSP investor felt uncomfortable going 100% into the I-Fund, I would recommend going 50% I-Fund, 50% G-Fund, and then taking out a TSP loan for 10% of their total TSP holdings and buying physical gold. The gold component would off-set any loss in purchasing power the G-Fund sustained due to FED counterfeit operations.

Personally, I'm not one of these 'trade-everything-all-the-time' type of guys. I'm spending most of my time in the I-Fund. I have taken some profits off the table recently and am currently standing 75% I-Fund and 25% G-Fund. I may wind up with 65-I/35-G, at the most, and will redeploy my G-Fund money into the I-Fund on weakness to compound I-Fund growth during this generally sideways market movement.

If the dollar were to begin its freefall, I would still have a significant amount of I-Fund to sell into strength as there is an inverse relationship between the dollar and the currency component of the I-Fund.

My goal is to be fully deployed in the I-Fund when the dollar begins its freefall. Since I can't predict the future timing of this event I don't want to have any less than 65% of my TSP funds in the I-Fund. This international train is not leaving me at the station. There will come a time to be out of the I-Fund, but it will be YEARS down the road.
 
Wimpy,
Thanks for the very interesting point of view. I'm on the same page with you as far as investing in the I-fund.
 
Wimpy,

Nice comments on the International Markets and the dollar. Hope you will post your thoughts on them more often!
 
Wimpy,

Thanks for the explanation. I hope you're wrong! :cheesy:

However, I admire your willingness to take a position.

Incidentally, I'm not sure I agree with the 1000 year war. However, I'm finding it interesting. Thanks.----Rokid
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 23, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Stocks assaulted! Bend, but no break.
Other Yak...............................Lube spikes on supply and production worries.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1301.67, dn -3.37
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.035, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+6.701, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........77.47, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 58.0 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................63.95, up +2.18
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Green.

Tin Box:
Position...................................75% Stocks
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: NA, Trail: 1300
 
rokid said:
Wimpy,

Thanks for the explanation. I hope you're wrong! :cheesy:

However, I admire your willingness to take a position.

Incidentally, I'm not sure I agree with the 1000 year war. However, I'm finding it interesting. Thanks.----Rokid
Click to expand...

I'm glad you are finding The Thousand Year War, by Richard Maybury, interesting. My first reaction to reading the book was similar to yours, but it does have a way of growing on you.

Re: the explanation...I hope I'm wrong also...so many are unprepared for what is coming...many of whom I care about very deeply.
 
Wimpy,

I'll be your huckleberry and I'll give you the worse case of priapism you ever had.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
wimpy you may find this interesting.
Here is an excerpt of the rticle. PART 2: What happened to the US Congress?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/HC24Aa01.html
CJ: From George Bush's point of view, his administration has achieved everything ideologically that he wanted to achieve. Militarism has been advanced powerfully. In the minds of a great many people, the military is now the only American institution that appears to work. He's enriched the ruling classes. He's destroyed the separation of powers as thoroughly as was possible. These are the problems that face us right now. The only way you could begin to rebuild the separation of powers would be to reinvigorate the Congress and I don't know what could shock the American public into doing that. They're the only ones who could do it. The courts can't. The president obviously won't.

The only thing I can think of that might do it would be bankruptcy. Like what happened to Argentina in 2001. The richest country in Latin America became one of the poorest. It collapsed. It lost the ability to borrow money and lost control of its affairs, but a great many Argentines did think about what corrupt presidents had listened to what corrupt advice and done what stupid things during the 1990s. And right now, the country is on its way back.

TD: But superpower bankruptcy? It's a concept nobody's really explored. When the British Empire finally went, we were behind them. Is there somebody behind us?

CJ: No.

TD: So what would it mean for us to go bankrupt? After all, we're not Argentina.

CJ: It would mean losing control over things. All of a sudden, we would be dependent on the kindness of strangers, looking for handouts. We already have a $725 billion trade deficit; the largest fiscal deficit in our history, now well over 6% of GDP. The defense budgets are off the charts and don't make any sense, and don't forget that $500 billion we've already spent on the Iraq war - every nickel of it borrowed from people in China and Japan who saved and invested because they would like to have access to this market. Any time they decide they don't want to lend to us, interest rates will go crazy and the stock exchange will collapse.
 
YES! a great read indeed.
however......
we will not go bankrupt..we will show the rest of the world how to print fiat money to pay debts off with worthless paper.
tangibles (real estate, stocks, commodities, and chewing gum) will go up in price as currencies become absolute monopoly paper.
china and japan do not want to tube us....we r their biggest investment...LOL
imf/world bank = federal reserve on a global scale.
listen...can u hear the helicopters comming...LOL
 
"listen...can u hear the helicopters comming...LOL"

Birch what a flash back. I new I should have applied for that disability
 
This looong, slooow, decline is scaring me. With several hours left we could get some real damage today.

Dave
<><
 
Wheels said:
This looong, slooow, decline is scaring me. With several hours left we could get some real damage today.

Dave
<><
Click to expand...

Yeah... it needs to decline MUCH MUCH quicker so we can finally have a sense of direction.:notrust:
 
Rod said:
Yeah... it needs to decline MUCH MUCH quicker so we can finally have a sense of direction.:notrust:
Click to expand...

Not exactly the solution I was looking for. The ironic thing is I've been waiting for a decline to get back in - or so I thought - If you didn't see in my account talk, I thought I was in the G fund but my IFT last week didn't happen and I didn't notice it until this morning.

Dave
<><
 
Wheels said:
Not exactly the solution I was looking for. The ironic thing is I've been waiting for a decline to get back in - or so I thought - If you didn't see in my account talk, I thought I was in the G fund but my IFT last week didn't happen and I didn't notice it until this morning.

Dave
<><
Click to expand...

Yeah, I saw that and I think you actually came out ahead since this week hasn't been too bad.:)

So, don't forget to thank tsp.gov:D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Fed still hawkish - market still volatile
Replies
0
Views
633
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Market Commentary 03/30/2020
Replies
0
Views
851
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Market Commentary 5/21/2020
Replies
0
Views
377
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Market Commentary 03/23/2020
Replies
0
Views
812
tsptalk
tsptalk
T
TSPNotley's Account Talk
Replies
9
Views
2K
polarbear
polarbear
Back
Top